2012年复旦人民币汇率指数在历史高位小幅波动。中国经济增速逐步企稳回升,促使人民币汇率先贬后升;外部来看上半年主要受欧债危机加剧的影响,下半年主要受美国和日本量化宽松影响。2013年人民币兑美元汇率将小幅波动整理,波幅有所扩大,人民币有效汇率将保持高位震荡,并将有小幅回落。

This paper analyzes the fluctuation trend of Fudan RMB effective exchange rate index since the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,especially in 2011.It holds that the narrow fluctuation of RMB exchange rate against USD leads to a sharp appreciation of RMB effective exchange rate and the adoption of an exchange rate regime that is tied to a basket of foreign currencies can achieve the stability of RMB effective exchange rate.RMB exchange rate has been at an equilibrium stage and will maintain slight fluctuation in 2012.The next aim of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform is to adopt an exchange rate regime that is tied to a basket of foreign currencies and launch derivatives based on RMB index.

有效汇率指数小幅上涨 2012年第二季度,复旦人民币有效汇率呈现出在震荡中小幅上涨的态势.其中4月震荡中略有降低.5月升值幅度较大,6月有所回落.相比2000年以来,处在历史高位. 盯住一篮子货币模拟汇率指数相对平稳,波动较小,显示盯住一篮子货币可以使人民币有效汇率更加稳定.

2012年第三季度,复旦人民币有效汇率呈现出在震荡中小幅下降的态势。但相对2000年以来,仍处于高位;复旦人民币核心指数三季度呈下降趋势,但波幅跌幅均小于有效汇率指数。四季度,人民币有效汇率指数可能会随着美元的走低而下行,但下行的幅度会缩小,因而,有效汇率指数仍将处于较高水平。

本文对2011年复旦人民币汇率指数走势进行分析,认为其具有前稳后升,处于历史高位,已进入均衡汇率区间,主要受欧美和一些新兴经济体货币贬值影响的特点。2012年人民币对美元汇率将基本稳定,小幅升值,波幅增大;有效汇率则先升后降,小幅波动。

The existing literature has focused on RMB-USD bilateral exchange rate for quite a long time. However, it is RMB effective exchange rate that has larger influence on the Chinese economy. This paper discusses the original design and applications of Fudan RMB nominal and the real effective exchange rate indices, as well as the simulated RMB exchange rate index pegged to a basket of currencies. The paper analyzes the variation trend of Fudan RMB exchange rate indices over the last eleven years, and demonstrates that RMB is not undervalued but overvalued at present, through the comparison of simulated and real effective exchange rates. In fact, as RMB is pegged to the U.S. dollar during the recent global financial crisis, China has endured sacrifices and made enormous contributions to the world economy and financial stability.