What is already known on this topic?:Smoking cessation can slow lung function decline and reduce exacerbation risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the impact of smoking cessation duration on the frequency of exacerbation readmissions and associated healthcare costs remains poorly understood in real-world settings. What is added by this report?:We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included 7,868 COPD patients from Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital. The 3-year exacerbation readmission rate and hospitalization costs declined with increasing duration of smoking cessation beyond 10 years, particularly among patients under 60 years of age. What are the implications for public health practice?:Early smoking cessation and maintaining abstinence for more than 10 years could help reduce healthcare costs in patients with COPD, highlighting the importance of integrating smoking cessation interventions into COPD management.

The impact of smoking history on medication use and readmission risk in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is not well understood. This study aimed to investigate the association between smoking and the use of antibiotics and corticosteroids, as well as the risk of AECOPD readmission. In this retrospective cohort study, we included 4,336 AECOPD inpatients with a median age of 72 (IQR: 64-79) years, among whom 78.4% were male. Patients were categorized into three groups: never smokers, ever smokers with < 40 pack-years, and ever smokers with >= 40 pack-years. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of smoking with antibiotic use, corticosteroid use, and AECOPD readmission. Ever smoking was associated with increased risk of antibiotic use, with an OR (95% CI) of 1.84 (1.32-2.57) for the < 40 pack-year group and 1.80 (1.29-2.53) for the >= 40 pack-year group. Similarly, smoking was associated with increased corticosteroid use, with an OR (95% CI) of 1.41 (1.17-1.71) for the < 40 pack-year group and 1.46 (1.20-1.78) for the >= 40 pack-year group. The 1-year risk of AECOPD readmission increased with higher smoking pack-years. Smoking history is a significant predictor of medication use and readmission risk, warranting further investigation into targeted interventions for smoking cessation in AECOPD patients.

Background Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular comorbidities are prevalent in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), but their impact on in-hospital outcomes and the risk of readmission remains unclear. This study aimed to describe the proportions of these comorbidities and assess their influence on patient outcomes.Methods Hospital admission records from 2013 to 2020 with a primary discharge diagnosis of AECOPD were retrieved from Beijing Public Health Information Centre database. Comorbidities were identified through discharge diagnoses, while in-hospital outcomes and subsequent readmissions were tracked. Logistic regression model, generalised linear model and subdistributional hazard model were used to evaluate the associations between comorbidities and adverse outcomes.Results Among 98 127 patients, cardiovascular comorbidities were present in 78.3% of cases and cerebrovascular comorbidities were present in 30.3% of cases. Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities or cerebrovascular comorbidities or both had prolonged length of stay (ORs: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.35; 1.20, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.32; 1.52, 95% CI: 1.44 to 1.60) and higher in-hospital mortality (ORs: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.62; 1.34, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.75; 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.48) compared with those without these conditions. Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and those with both cardiovascular and cerebrovascular comorbidities were at increased risk of readmission (HRs: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.19; 1.19, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.25), whereas cerebrovascular comorbidities alone were not. The impact of individual comorbidity varied, with heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, arrhythmia, hypertension, ischaemic stroke and cerebrovascular sequelae showing positive associations with adverse outcomes, but the opposite was observed for peripheral arterial disease, arterial stenosis and other cerebrovascular diseases.Conclusion Most cardiovascular comorbidities and major cerebrovascular comorbidities are significant predictors of length of stay, in-hospital mortality and readmission in AECOPD patients. These findings highlight the need for targeted management strategies to improve outcomes in this high-risk population. Further research is needed to explore the mechanisms underlying these associations.

INTRODUCTION:Accurate evaluation of exacerbation frequency is an essential part of COPD assessment. But relying on just the prior-year exacerbation history may not capture the full picture of risk given the inherent year-to-year fluctuations in exacerbation rates. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of models incorporating the 3-year exacerbation history based on electronic medical record. MATERIALS AND METHODS:This retrospective cohort study included 86,501 COPD hospitalized patients in Beijing from 2008 to 2014. The annual frequency of COPD exacerbation hospitalizations over a 3-year period after the index hospitalization was calculated, with patients segmented into seven distinct exacerbation trajectory groups. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the predictive capability of the 3-year exacerbation history for exacerbation readmission in the fourth year. Predictors included age, sex, comorbidities, and exacerbation hospitalization in previous 1-3 years. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS:Of the studied patients, 56.5% were men, and the mean age (SD) was 73.8 (10.3) years. The overall readmission rate for COPD exacerbation was 0.31 per person-year, with only 3.8% of patients persistently readmitted over three consecutive years. The 3-year trajectory of exacerbation frequency was associated with exacerbation risk in the fourth year. Compared to just the prior year, the inclusion of a 3-year exacerbation hospitalization history notably improved prediction accuracy, with AUC elevating from 0.731 (0.724-0.739) to 0.786 (0.779-0.792). CONCLUSION:These results unveil the fluctuating nature of COPD exacerbation hospitalization frequency across years and demonstrate that integrating a more comprehensive 3-year exacerbation history significantly refines the prediction model for future risk, thus providing a more nuanced and actionable insight for clinical care.

What is already known on this topic?:Smoking is the primary risk factor for a poor prognosis in chronic respiratory disease (CRD). Current tobacco surveillance efforts in China focus on the general population and do not adequately cover CRD patients.What is added by this report?:We employed electronic medical records (EMR) to track smoking habits in 28,334 hospitalized CRD patients at Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital. The rates of former and current smokers were 30.7% and 18.0%, respectively. Both former and current smokers exhibited an increased risk of respiratory symptoms and extended hospital stays.What are the implications for public health practice?:These results underscore the importance of implementing smoking monitoring and targeted cessation interventions for hospitalized patients with CRDs.

The co-occurrence of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O-3) pollution during the warm season has become a growing public health concern. The interaction between PM2.5 and O-3 and its contribution to disease burden associated with co-pollution has not been thoroughly examined. We collected data on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases from a city-wide hospital discharge database in Beijing between 2013 and 2019. City-wide 24-h mean PM2.5 and daily maximum 8-h mean O-3 were averaged from 35 monitoring stations across Beijing. Conditional Poisson regression was employed to estimate the interaction between warm-season PM2.5 and O-3 on respiratory admissions. A model incorporating a tensor product term was used to fit the non-linear interaction and estimate the number of respiratory admissions attributable to PM2.5 and O-3 pollution. From January 18, 2013 to December 31, 2019, 1,191,308 respiratory admissions were recorded. We observed multiplicative interactions between warm-season PM2.5 and O-3 on upper respiratory infections (P = 0.004), pneumonia (P = 0.002), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = 0.041), and total respiratory disease (P < 0.001). PM2.5-O-3 co-pollution during warm season exhibited a super-additive effect on respiratory admissions, with a relative excess risk due to interaction of 1.65% (95%CI: 0.46%-2.84%). There was a non-linear pattern of the synergistic effect between PM2.5 and O-3 on respiratory admissions. Based on the World Health Organization global air quality guidelines, 12,421 respiratory admissions would be reduced if both daily PM2.5 and O-3 concentrations had not exceeded the target (PM2.5 15 mu g/m(3), O-3 100 mu g/m(3)). The number of respiratory admissions attributable to either PM2.5 or O-3 pollution decreased by 48.7% from 2013 to 2019. Prioritizing O-3 control during the warm season is a cost-effective strategy for Beijing. These findings underscore the significance of concurrently addressing both PM2.5 pollution and O-3 pollution during the warm season to alleviate the burden of respiratory diseases.

扫地机器人、陪护机器人、送餐机器人等服务机器人的兴起与女性就业息息相关.利用服务机器人创新数据和中国家庭收入调查(CHIP)数据,以国家级科技企业孵化器为工具变量,运用二元Probit模型、双变量Probit模型、Heckman二阶段模型研究服务机器人创新对女性就业的影响.研究表明,服务机器人创新有利于女性就业.进一步,从影响女性劳动供给的因素角度,服务机器人创新对家务劳动具有替代效应,对子女照料具有互补效应,对子女教育则无直接影响.

Facing the increasingly complex external environment and multiple challenges of domestic economic development,it is essential for China to make good use of the advantages of a major country to promote its high-quality economic development under new development pattern. The advantages of a major country are reflected in its efficient government, large population,complete industrial categories and broad consumer market. In order to give better play to the advantages of a major country, we shall take the following measures: first, further deepen socialist market-oriented reforms to ensure the healthy development and efficient functioning of market mechanism; second, promote high-level opening up to the outside world to create a favorable international economic environment; third, adhere to the innovation-driven development strategy and strengthen the research and development of core technologies in key areas; fourth, further implement new urbanization strategies and give full play to the leading role of major cities.

2023年以来,尽管我国面临的外部环境仍然复杂多变,但国内疫情快速过峰,对经济运行的扰动减轻,生产和消费呈现出稳步复苏的态势,叠加稳经济政策的持续发力,助力经济全面复苏.

In 2022,China’s economy showed a V-shaped trend, with a GDP growth rate of 3%,which is 2.5 percentage points lower than the growth target set at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2023,issues such as the reduction of the country’s total population, the sharp decline in labor force, the trend of COVID-19 epidemic, the changes in market expectations, the impact of previous policies, and changes in international political and economic situation will become important factors affecting China’s economic development in the future. The natural trend of China’s economy will be a pattern of recovery both in supply and demand, but will still be lower than the potential growth rate. In addition, real estate market crisis, local government debt, exchange rate and currency crisis, and external economic environment will become important risk points for China’s economic development in the future. In view of this, the policy target for 2023 should focus on the demand side, and at the same time provide necessary support for the stable recovery of the supply side and the continuous improvement of the market environment.

2022年中国整体消费形势呈现急降缓升趋于平稳的走势,其中国内疫情多点散发、局部规模性反弹使得服务类消费持续承压,疫情反复导致失业率上升,同时降低了消费者对就业、收入及消费意愿的信心,居民收入下滑以及消费预期转弱致使消费需求减少,从而拉低了消费增速.

2022年中国G D P同比增长3％,经济运行呈现V型走势.展望2023年,全国总人口减少、劳动力急剧下滑、新冠疫情走向、市场预期转变、前期政策影响、国际政治和经济形势变化等将成为影响未来中国经济发展的重要因素.中国经济自然走势将是供给需求双恢复的格局,但仍低于潜在增长率.鉴于此,2023年的政策目标应以需求端作为主要发力点,同时对供给端的稳定恢复和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持,宏观调控政策需以需求、供给双扩张的政策取向同时搭配市场环境管理为辅的政策组合.

针对目前的经济形势,我们提出以下总体政策建议:第一,鉴于今年的经济形势从短期看主要是疫情导致的,那么疫情防控就成为宏观调控的核心.我国需要为经济发展提供一个稳定、透明、可预期的公共卫生环境;第二,适当调整经济增速目标,建议增速目标调整为4.5％左右;第三,要注意防通胀;第四,要协调好疫情防控和宏观调控的关系.

不久前,国家统计局基于第七次全国人口普查数据发布了《第七次全国人口普查超大、特大城市人口基本情况》,显示中国超大特大城市"俱乐部"再次扩容,包括国内7个超大城市和14个特大城市.这些城市在经济发展方面也是可圈可点,2021年以来纷纷交出亮眼答卷,其中多个城市地区生产总值超过1万亿元.

我国改革开放40多年来,在建设全国统一大市场方面已经取得了巨大进展,但还没有达到完善的程度,还需要进一步加快建设,并以此筑牢我国社会主义市场经济的根基. 市场经济运行所依靠的两个机制 市场经济的运行依靠两个机制,一个是价格机制,一个是竞争机制.在这两个机制的共同作用下,市场经济能够实现多种功能.

中国需要高质量增长,高质量增长的必要条件是经济的健康持续增长;而在产能过剩的情况下,经济的均衡产出决定于需求,因此经济的健康状况取决于优质需求.所谓的"优质需求",指的是能够给消费者带来更高的边际效用的消费需求,和能够给投资者带来更高的预期收益的投资需求.投资的预期收益越高,不良贷款出现的概率就越小,银行危机爆发的概率也就越小,因而经济就越健康;消费的边际效用越高,消费者愿意付出的价格就越高,因此企业的收益率就越高,最终经济也就越健康.因此,要实现经济的高质量增长,就必须有优质需求的持续增长.

本文采用相对价格法测算了2004—2018年30个省市的综合市场、商品市场、要素市场、资本品市场以及劳动力市场的分割指数.从全国层面看,中国整体市场分割程度在2004—2018年确实呈现下降收敛的趋势,市场一体化改革进程取得了积极的成效,但整体市场分割程度的下降主要由商品市场拉动,要素市场一体化改革进程相对落后;从区域层面看,东北地区和中部地区在商品市场和要素市场的一体化改革中均取得了显著的成效,但东部地区和西部地区仅在商品市场取得显著的成效.区域经济协同发展对地区市场一体化的推进在要素市场中发挥了明显作用,包括资本品市场和劳动力市场的共同作用,一体化进程显著领先于全国平均水平.

全球人口老龄化持续加剧,中国的人口老龄化问题也同样严峻,中国政府已经将应对人口老龄化问题上升到了国家战略的高度.为了从理论层面厘清人口老龄化对宏观经济运行的影响,分别分析了人口老龄化对供给侧和需求侧的影响,并在此基础上分析了人口老龄化对经济增长的影响.基于跨国面板数据的实证研究发现,老年抚养比提高1个百分点,会使GDP显著降低0.23个百分点,即一个国家的老年抚养比的提高会对经济增长产生显著的负面影响.与此同时,结合联合国有关中国的人口预测数据来分析中国人口年龄结构变化对于中国中长期经济增长的影响.研究发现,少年抚养比的逐年递减和老年抚养比的逐年递增将导致中国中长期经济增长率逐年下降.建议制定配套政策鼓励生育、延迟退休年龄等,以缓解人口老龄化对中国经济增长的潜在负面影响.

长期以来,测算中国全要素生产率(T FP)的研究普遍存在遗漏资本利用率的问题.本文通过构建内生增长DSGE模型,以货币政策冲击作为典型冲击进行脉冲响应分析,结果表明:由于传统的T FP测算忽略了资本要素利用率,从而导致测算结果出现过度顺周期性,并且中国金融市场的不完备性进一步扩大了T FP的顺周期性.因而,如果在测算生产率时遗漏了相关的投入要素利用率,那么即使生产率本身没有发生变化,生产率的测算结果也可能给出中国的技术积累与经济增长高度联动的错误结论.本文在控制资本利用率的条件下测算了中国历年的T FP增速,并梳理了相关的基本特征.作为延伸,还进一步探讨了货币政策冲击对T FP的影响效应,结果显示,货币政策冲击对T FP影响较小.

中国的宏观经济形势正在进行较大变化.随着经济逐步恢复正常,基数效应低带来的高增长逐渐被正常经济增速运行取代.在这个转变过程中,如何认识经济形势并进行宏观调控就是一个需要认真对待的重要问题.