Economic development fails to greatly increase demand for liberal democracy in China. Is China an exception to modernization theory? If so, why? This paper studies these questions by analysing five waves of Asian Barometer Survey data from 2002 to 2019. We have three major findings. First, the shift of political values exhibits an inverted U-shaped curve with the mid-2010s as its turning point. Second, the better educated and more media exposed turned conservative much faster than the rest after the mid-2010s. Third, to trace the mechanism of this unusual reversal and divergence, we resort to a Difference-In-Differences model, taking political indoctrination, measured by media exposure and education, as treatment and the post-2013 era as treatment time, finding that political indoctrination significantly explains political cultural backsliding. Our findings enrich modernization theory by identifying the “interceptive” power of the state between economic development and cultural shifts.

The debate surrounding school vouchers in educational policy remains contentious, with conflicting survey data presenting contradictory levels of public endorsement. To gain a more nuanced comprehension of viewpoints towards vouchers, we propose deconstructing the American populace into distinct demographic and geographical sectors. However, this approach encounters challenges due to data insufficiency arising from small sample sizes in individual segments. To address this quandary, we advocate employing a model-based simulation methodology called multilevel regression and poststratification to derive more accurate estimates of voucher attitudes. Our exploration reveals that vouchers enjoy the most favor among affluent White Catholics and Evangelicals, with popularity escalating alongside income within the White demographic. In contrast, among non-White individuals, voucher support exhibits a different pattern, with less favor observed within the middle-income bracket and greater acceptance among those in lower-income categories. Our findings shed light on the complex interplay of demographic and geographic factors influencing public opinion on school vouchers, offering valuable insights for policymakers and education reform efforts.

随着中国特色社会主义进入新时代,提升公众获得感已成为以人民为中心发展理念的题中应有之义.因此,获得感的影响机制是一个极具理论和现实意义的话题.既有研究主要从实实在在的物质"成果"(即政府施政的结果)来解析公众获得感的差异,然而,系统地考察机会享有(即政治过程的参与)对获得感的影响还鲜有其人.事实上,政治参与是现代政治的基本特征,也是中国特色社会主义政治文明发展的重要内容.那么,公众的政治参与是否影响获得感?具体有何作用?此外,政治参与存在不同类型,体制内参与和体制外参与对获得感的影响是否完全相同?上述困惑尚未得到学界的系统讨论和实证分析,存在较大的学理探讨空间.鉴于此,论文在具体研究中将政治参与分为体制内参与和体制外参与,利用中国社会状况调查(CSS)的混合截面数据,对获得感进行实证分析.研究发现,体制外参与(包括网络参与和线下参与)不论是行为还是意愿程度的提高,都会显著降低公众获得感;相反,体制内参与(基层选举)的行为和意愿程度的提高,都会显著提升公众获得感;另外,公众参与行为和参与意愿对获得感的影响在作用方向上存在一致性.论文紧扣中国国家治理的时代主线,进一步揭示出获得感的影响机制,从过程性视角重塑了对获得感生成逻辑的既有认知.据此,在未来的国家治理实践中,应更为重视政治参与的作用,不断健全和完善公众通过制度化方式参与公共生活的途径,减少和降低公众试图在体制外寻求参与的行为和意愿.

This paper introduces a Bayesian multilevel model based on the age-period-cohort framework to examine Chinese happiness. Using 8 waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data between 2005–2015, the model not only solves the co-linearity problem with weakly informative priors and explicit assumptions, it also produces more computationally stable results. Our estimation results show how Chinese happiness changes in an individual's life circle and how one's life experience is accumulated to her/his happiness with cognitive development. We identify some different generation patterns and explain generation differences in happiness across the various birth years with narratives of historical events. This paper contributes to existing studies both theoretically and methodologically. The novel modeling strategy and the analytical framework which assisted with historical narratives altogether explain better the age, period, and cohort effects on Chinese happiness.

本文以人脉圈层研究为例,将抽样调查得到的扎根真相与在中国广泛使用的一款社交软件A的大数据结合,建立人脉圈分类模型。在理论、数据挖掘、回归模型和分类预测模型及其解释工具的对话中,通过一次次抽样取得扎根真相,进行一轮轮的模型校准,发展出越来越精准的预测模型。本案例展示的大数据与结构化数据整合的研究范式是社会科学理论导引下的大数据研究方法论的实践。

20世纪末,比较政治学界对一些转型国家政权稳固而另一些转型国家政权频繁更迭这一现象表现出浓厚兴趣,学者试图用"体制性整合"来阐释上述现象.本文围绕"体制性整合如何促进政权稳定"这一核心议题,对体制性整合理论进行系统讨论.体制性整合具有多重含义,可以指过程、手段、策略以及机制等.该理论能够为政权稳定提供较好的解释,但也存在局限,如理论解释与经验事实间不对称,研究视角上忽视国际环境和政党等因素,内在机制不完善等.因此,在运用该理论进行分析的过程中应充分考虑国际宏观因素和政党,尝试进行案例研究、引入实验法和完善研究设计,这可能是体制性整合理论未来研究的可行方向.

党的十八大以来,在全面从严治党的背景下,反腐败以前所未有的高强度姿态在国家各领域开展,对中国社会和民众心态产生深刻影响.在应然层面,相关研究肯定了全面从严治党和反腐败对提升中国公众政治信心的积极作用.不过,上述论断还有待充足的经验证据对其进行实证检验.学界对反腐败提升公众政治信心作用过程的系统性探讨仍有不足.鉴于此,文章从"公众对政府清廉感知"着手,通过对2015年中国城乡社会治理调查(CSGS)数据的实证分析,解答全面从严治党何以提升中国民众的政治信心.研究发现如下:第一,高强度的反腐败行动提升了中国公众的政治信心.第二,公众对政府清廉感知的不同来源会对政治信心产生相反作用.间接评价正向影响其政治信心,即政府清廉感知的间接评价越高,公众对政治信心的评价水平就越好,而公众清廉感知的直接经历负向影响政治信心,并且间接评价的作用大于直接经历.第三,在反腐对政治信心的提升作用中,公众对中央的政治信心高于地方.公众的政府清廉感知对中央、地方政府的政治信心分别产生独立影响.不过,这种独立效应仅存在于间接评价对政治信心的影响上.此外,反腐对公众政治信心的影响还存在明显的群体差异.

计算社会科学的兴起与发展,缘于大数据的涌现为计算机科学在社会科学研究中施展能力提供了空间.计算社会科学重启了其数据驱动性和社会科学的理论指导性之间的研究范式之争:当不断涌现的大数据就可以直观地解释人类社会行为时,我们还需要理论吗?本文认为,计算社会科学的兴起提供了两种范式交融从而更高效、科学地探讨社会科学研究议题的重要机遇.本文在强调计算社会科学必然带来的跨学科融合的前景与问题的基础上,指出计算社会科学通过对数据观念、研究设计、模型选择和推论原则等方面的实质性影响,调整了社会科学研究中依赖理论的思维定势,拓展了认知复杂多变的世界的工具箱,为追求科学预测和优化因果推断创造了更多的可能性.

统计分析方法在美国政治学研究中发挥着重要作用.自20世纪初统计分析方法在美国政治学研究中萌芽,至形成政治学研究常见运用统计分析的局面,再至当下大数据时代对研究范式的冲击,它的产生与发展走过了不同阶段,并依然在变化发展中.统计分析方法在美国政治学研究中的运用与发展归功于将统计分析方法与政治现实相结合的学者们的努力.统计分析方法仍在不断改进与更新,以应对内生性问题、数据结构多层问题、模型参数识别问题、统计显著性问题和因果推论难免的假设强弱等问题.在可预见的未来,统计分析方法依然会在美国政治学研究中发挥重要作用,同时也将直面大数据时代大数据分析技术相对于传统统计分析在数据处理方面的优势.

Past studies on the Chinese internet management system have revealed a smart internet management system that takes advantage of time to filter content with collective action potential. How and why such a system was institutionalized? We offer a historical institutional analysis to explain the way in which the system evolved. We implement social network analysis to examine the Weibo posts of recurrent events, the elections in Area A in 2016 and 2018, to identify pattern changes in the system. There are two aspects of the changes: the centralization of the command line to a single authority and the implementation of a discriminatory strategy to deal with the various online expressions together forming this intelligent system. The improved Chinese information surveillance system demonstrates both a top-down information management and a bottom-up opinion formation.

How do Chinese information inspectors censor the internet? In light of the assumption that inspectors must follow specific rules instead of ambiguous guidelines, such as precluding collective action, to decide what and when to delete, this study attempts to offer a dynamic understanding of censorship by exploiting well-structured Weibo data from before and after the 2018 Taiwanese election. This study finds that inspectors take advantage of time in handling online discussions with the potential for collective action. Through this deferral tactic, inspectors make online sentiments moderately flow regarding an important political event, and thereafter, past discussions on trendy topics will be mostly removed. Therefore, reality is selectively altered; the past is modified, and the future will be remembered in a ``preferable" way.

Because human error plays a direct role in accidents, studying the causal relationship between the environment and human error is essential to prevent mishaps. However, these relationships have been explored solely using bivariate statistical analysis and thus require more intermediate factors to emphasize the need for monitoring and controlling human error by improving the workplace environment. Moreover, prevalent studies rely heavily on expert experience, which is subjective and creates potential estimation noise. In this study, the mechanism whereby environmental factors influence behavior and its associate factors is learned with an algorithm using a Bayesian network structure. Rather than being simply data-driven, the algorithm initiates learning from prior knowledge, the theoretical causal chain in the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM), and revises the learning approach against safety inspection data if necessary. The learned Bayesian network shows that human error and incorrect sequencing result from a combination of limited cognitive functions and improper spatial/workmanship arrangements caused by equipment defects, improper design, and management problems. Bridging the gaps in previous studies, the action interface revealed by this study is useful for on-site quality control. (C) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.

“民主解固”概念的提出挑战了民主巩固范式的如下基本假定:民主巩固是一条单行道,一旦民主国家在一些条件上越过临界值,民主制度将永久存在.然而,最近的经验表明,民主巩固并非民主发展的静态终点,一个民主巩固的国家仍然会面临民主解固的危机.福阿和芒克指出,近年来一些民主巩固国家普遍存在的三种政治现象显示了民主解固的可能性:第一,年轻一代公民对民主制度和民主价值的支持度下降;第二,越来越多的民众投票支持以民粹主义为号召的政党及其候选人;第三,民主政府的治理水平出现明显下降,民主制度的运作在一定程度上陷入困境.虽然学者们对民主解固命题成立与否意见不一,但民主解固概念的提出说明,西方现行的自由民主制度并非历史发展的终点.

既有研究已发现中国公众对中国政治体制的支持度很高,但对支持度来源的研究往往停留在传统的革命历史选择合法性与经济发展绩效合性法上.随着十八大以来改革与治理的推进,有必要结合新的经济、政治形势和社会结构对中国公众的政治支持开展系统研究.立足于国家治理现代化的时代背景,本文探讨了公众高度政治支持的社会来源及其变化.文章利用最新的“中国城乡社会治理调查”(CSGS2015)数据进行定量实证分析,逐步检验了文化价值观、经济发展绩效以及多种政治制度绩效的影响,并且引入社会结构变迁中的不平等变量,全面而系统地分析了文化、制度和社会结构三大类因素对公众政治支持的影响力.实证研究结果表明,文化、制度和社会结构三个方面共同且有区别地影响了公众的政治支持,而且中国公众高度政治支持的来源分布已经发生了重要的转变,即由经济发展绩效转向政治制度绩效;并且社会公平分配问题影响了政治经济制度绩效作用于政治支持的程度.

A model for identifying, analyzing, and quantifying the mechanisms for the influence of improper workplace environment on human error in elevator installation is proposed in this study. By combining a modification of a human error model with real-world inspection data collected by an elevator installation company, the influence paths of improper workplace environment on the conditional probability of human error were quantified using a Bayesian network parameter-learning estimation method and posterior predictive simulation. Under the condition of an improper workplace environment, the probability of human error increased by 80% of its original value, a factor much higher than that resulting from improper management. The most probable influence was found to be improper workmanship and changes in the information required by the worker, thus triggering cognitive failure and consequent unsafe actions by workers. The proposed methodology (posterior predictive simulation) provides a new approach in construction studies for quantifying the probabilistic levels of various causal paths, and the results show the key mechanism for the influence of improper workplace environment on human error using real-world mechanical installation data.

在中国语境下,城乡差别与差序格局是政治信任的鲜明特性,但是鲜有研究将城乡社会结构差异纳入差序政治信任研究之中.利用2015年中国城乡社会治理调查数据对中国的差序政治信任进行城乡比较研究,研究发现,城乡变量与差序政治信任存在强相关性,城市居民更倾向于将政府当作一个同质化的整体,其政治信任受到制度与文化变量的均衡影响;农村居民倾向于将中央政府,地方政府区别对待,其地方政治信任主要来源于治理绩效评估,而中央政治信任受到文化变量的显著影响.从整体上看,城市居民的政治信任理性化和批判性程度更高,而农村居民的政治信任则具备更多传统色彩,这种差异源于城乡发展阶段不同所导致的政治经济等方面的全方位差异.

为克服中国现实状况和研究方法局限给政治信任的城乡比较造成的障碍, 本文采用城镇化质量指数, 地理空间信息建构了连续型的城乡自变量, 将户籍制度的影响纳入研究设计当中, 并从制度主义和文化主义两条路径对政治信任的影响机制进行深入分析. 研究发现, 城镇化质量和地理空间距离可以显著影响城乡居民的政治信任, 但是其对中央和地方政治信任的作用相反; 中央政治信任受到制度与文化变量的均衡影响, 而地方政府信任受到制度变量的单一影响; 户籍制度加剧了常住人口与非常住人口在政治信任方面的差距, 对非常住人口的地方政治信任产生了较大的负向影响.

随着中国参与全球治理的日渐深化,建立、健全兼顾保障国家利益与民众支持的国际事务参与制度成为当务之急.以全球气候变化谈判为例,调查实验显示出国际气候谈判中民众对于社会组织参与谈判的影响和评价.北京市民认可社会组织参与国际气候谈判的正面作用,但是更倾向由政府组织成员组成谈判代表团;同时,市民认为社会组织的介入有助于提高谈判的透明度、代表性,以及代表团的谈判技能和专业知识;但不纳入社会组织也不损及他们对于谈判过程及结果的评价.总之,政府应当适当吸纳特定专业性的社会组织,并积极引导民众了解社会组织参与国际谈判,更好地建立民众与政府、社会组织之间的互信关系,为中国参与国际事务奠定组织和制度基础.

Studies have indicated that prevention through design is the most economic and effective approach to enhance safety. Although the importance of prevention through design has been argued for many years, the mechanism between design and unsafe behavior is still unclear, which impedes the promotion of design for safety. This study aims to reduce accidents in the construction industry and promote safety design by understanding the mechanism through design leads to unsafe behavior and quantify the probability that design failure will cause unsafe behavior. Real inspection data were combined with a Bayesian network, and Bayesian parameter learning was used to identify how design lead to unsafe behavior and calculate the probability of the unsafe behavior. The result highlighted the significance of engineering design specify the mechanism of design on behavior, which outlined a theoretical foundation for prevention through design.

Governments need the support of their citizens in order to be able to adopt and implement ambitious environmental protection policies. Recent research on liberal democratic systems has found evidence that increased civil society organization involvement can help increase the popular legitimacy of (that is, public support for) such policy-making. We are interested in whether this finding is also relevant to other types of political systems. To find out we implemented a survey experiment in China (N = 932). The empirical focus is on climate policy, a paradigmatic global governance effort, in which China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, plays a key role. The results show that people welcome the involvement of civil society actors – with the exception of business civil society organizations – in climate policy-making, though most participants in our survey experiment did not favor civil society organizations over government agencies. They also show, however, that moving from non-inclusion to inclusion of civil society organizations improves people’s assessment of transparency and representational quality of climate governance (two key facets of input or procedural legitimacy) by 14 and 24% respectively. Our findings suggest that – even though few civil society organizations are currently independent from government in China – increased civil society organizations involvement in climate policy-making could contribute to enhancing public support for climate policy. In view of great challenges China faces in implementing its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) within the Paris Agreement framework, its climate policy could thus benefit from greater involvement of civil society organizations.