PurposeAs a critical pathway toward achieving agricultural modernization, high-quality agricultural development requires the efficient optimization of factor allocation. This study aims to examine green finance and assess its impact on high-quality agricultural development from the perspective of financial resource allocation.Design/methodology/approachA comprehensive evaluation index system for both green finance and high-quality agricultural development is constructed, employing the Epsilon-Based Measure and global Malmquist-Luenberger index in conjunction with the global entropy weight method for measurement. Furthermore, the system generalized method of moments (GMM) method is employed to empirically analyze the influence of green finance on high-quality agricultural development.FindingsThe conclusion that green finance can effectively drive high-quality agricultural development remains robust across multiple empirical tests. Environmental regulation plays a substantial positive role in promoting high-quality agricultural development; however, it also attenuates the positive impact of green finance on such progress.Social implicationsThis paper recommends strengthening the green financial system, diversifying green financial services and fully leveraging the potential of green finance in advancing high-quality agricultural development.Originality/valueThis research integrates green finance and high-quality agricultural development into a unified analytical framework. It theoretically explicates multiple mechanisms through which green finance influences high-quality agricultural development and empirically tests these relationships using inter-provincial panel data and the system GMM. This approach broadens the analytical scope of research on the determinants of high-quality agricultural development.

[Objective]In the context of climate change, increased production risks, the digital reconfiguration of the allocation of agricultural factors, and the current challenges of food security, green development, and rural revitalisation, traditional agricultural economics research based on small-sample survey, the aggregated statistics, and the linear causal inference has shown decreasing ability to describe nonlinear relationships, spatial-temporal heterogeneity and dynamic interactions in agricultural production and rural society. This research aims to explore the paradigm shift of agricultural economics research catalyzed by big data technologies, explain the implications of big data for the discipline's evidence foundation, analytical thinking and organizational forms, and to draw out the key analytical, data-governance, and ethical problems that come with this shift. It further intends to provide theoretical references for constructing an independent agricultural economic knowledge system with Chinese characteristics amid the ongoing digital transformation of agriculture.[Methods]Drawing on Kuhn's theory of scientific paradigms, the agricultural economics research paradigm is a historically situated ensemble of common commitments, data conventions, and analytical practices and disciplinary norms that guided research. The historical trajectory of agricultural economics in China was traced, and the big-data-driven transformation was examined across seven dimensions: data source, research carrier, research object, research approach, research method, evaluation standard, and research organization. The analysis focused on the way the construction of digital infrastructure and the rise of intelligent analytics transformed agricultural knowledge production. Salient risks attending the deployment of big data were also identified, including biases in data, loss of capacity for causal identification, algorithmic opacity, and new challenges in the field of research ethics and governance.[Results and Discussions]Chinese agricultural economics has experienced four eras of evolution: the early theoretical importation and localization period, the rise of quantitative and econometric analysis period, computationally-assisted inquiry period, and data-intensive scientific inquiry period. The evidentiary base of the field has been transformed, as a massive volume of multi-source data, derived from different technologies, has emerged. Research that used to be limited to small scale, low frequency, structured datasets is now increasingly based on large-scale streams of high-frequency, multi-modal, near real-time data, greatly extending the range and granularity of empirical research. In addition to household surveys and field observations, a hybrid virtual-physical platform, such as digital twin systems, platform-based monitoring and integrated data observatories, was now introduced. The focus expanded from a relatively homogeneous group of farm households to a much more diverse group of small farmers, agribusinesses, actors in the digital platform, rural service providers, and policy actors. Research questions, which were mainly related to static production decisions, were increasingly focusing on bounded rationality, long-term dynamics of behaviour and the ecological-economic-social interactions of rural transformation. Research strategies became more future-oriented, combining forecasting, the modeling of scenarios and cycles of theory revisions. At the method level, machine learning, double machine learning, causal forests, and other tools started to complement standard econometrics, allowing to expand the toolkit to predictive modeling, heterogeneity analysis and more sophisticated causal inference. Evaluative standards were revised also: data quality, predictive fidelity, out-of-sample validity and method-problem fit grew in importance relative to theoretical parsimony and statistical significance alone. Research shifted from isolated, discipline-based research teams to open, collaborative research ecosystems, based on interdisciplinary collaborations and data-sharing platforms. This change was accompanied by four challenges. First, issues of representativeness of data at the data level arose as digital cleavages and a false sense of comprehensiveness often underrepresented remote areas, elderly, and digitally ignored smallholders. Second, at the methodological level, the correlation-causation dichotomy was more prominent since machine learning has been more successful at prediction than in identifying generative mechanisms. Third, algorithmic opacity led to issues of transparency, accountability and fairness in various contexts, including in agricultural subsidy allocation, credit scoring and risk assessment. Fourth, there were increasing risks of privacy infringement and data insecurity, as agricultural big data can also include sensitive personal, operational and strategic data.[Conclusions]Big data technology is driving a transition of agricultural economics from a purely model-centric paradigm towards a data-model co-driven "fourth data-intensive scientific paradigm". It reframes the questions addressed by the discipline, the assumptions it makes, the analytical frameworks it utilizes and the organization of research. Future efforts should focus on four aspects: establishing national unified agricultural big data infrastructure, the integration of data resources, analytical models and algorithmic tools into a shared infrastructure, training and research activities to be undertaken in an interdisciplinary fashion, and constructing governance mechanisms and ethics for agricultural big data.

The seed industry stands as a vital strategic sector critical to a nation’s agricultural security and food sovereignty. Researching the optimization of resource allocation within seed enterprises is pivotal for advancing national food security and agricultural modernization. Utilizing micro-survey data from China’s corn seed enterprises spanning from 2018 to 2022, this paper empirically analyzes the impact and mechanisms of capital resource mismatch and labor resource mismatch on the competitiveness of corn seed enterprises. The findings reveal that: (1) Capital resource mismatch hinders the enhancement of competitiveness among corn seed enterprises, whereas labor resource mismatch boosts their competitiveness. (2) The phenomenon of “financial ownership discrimination” persists, with capital resource mismatch impeding the competitiveness of non-state-owned corn seed enterprises; concurrently, the “incentive” effect of labor resource mismatch is more pronounced among state-owned corn seed enterprises. (3) In comparison to technology-oriented corn seed enterprises, capital resource mismatch has a significant positive influence on the competitiveness of basic corn seed enterprises, whereas labor resource mismatch has a notable negative impact. (4) The dual technical barriers posed by executives and employees alleviate the inhibitory effect of capital resources on the competitiveness of corn seed enterprises but simultaneously impede the promotional effect of labor resource mismatch. (5) In line with the mismatch effects observed at the micro-enterprise level, labor resource mismatch in the macro factor market also demonstrates a significant positive effect on the competitiveness of corn seed enterprises. Our research findings offer a specific business context for enterprise resource allocation strategies, facilitating the efficient operation of the seed industry system and promoting the healthy development of the seed industry.

IntroductionWith the rise of the digital economy, e-commerce has become a significant driver of agricultural modernization, offering opportunities to increase farmers’ income by expanding sales channels, reducing transaction costs, and enhancing product value. However, despite growing empirical research, disparities remain in the research findings, and the impact and mechanisms of farmers’ involvement in e-commerce operations on their income require further investigation.MethodsThis study utilizes the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey to both theoretically and empirically examine the impact of farmers’ participation in e-commerce on their total household income, while also exploring the mechanisms driving this relationship.Results(1) The empirical results of the endogenous switching regression model show that farmers’ participation in e-commerce operations can increase their income. This conclusion remains robust after applying winsorization, the instrumental variable approach, and core variable substitution. (2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that, under the counterfactual hypothesis, if non-e-commerce households were to participate in e-commerce operations, their average treatment effect in the low-income group would be greater than that in the high-income group. That is, their increase in household income would be larger than that of the corresponding high-income group, suggesting that farmers’ participation in e-commerce would reduce income disparities among farmers. (3) Mechanism analysis indicates that farmers’ participation in e-commerce operations promotes income growth primarily through three channels: enhancing information acquisition capacity, promoting social participation, and saving operating costs.DiscussionTherefore, this study recommends that the government refine policymaking to facilitate the integration of small-scale agricultural operators into emerging e-commerce models and establish a robust institutional support system. Additionally, efforts should focus on optimizing the rural e-commerce environment, enhancing farmers’ digital awareness and social participation efficiency, and supporting their engagement in e-commerce. Lastly, strengthening rural digital skills education, cultivating and retaining e-commerce talent, and fostering sustained income growth for farmers.

Agricultural mechanization services (AMS) are a key strategy for farmers to achieve mechanized production. However, farmers' access to these services is impeded by information gaps and high search costs. This study investigates the impact of internet usage on AMS accessed by farmers, based on 8,299 observations gathered from 12 Chinese provinces. The results indicate that farmers who use the internet have a 24.4% higher probability of accessing AMS than those who do not. Moreover, heterogeneity tests revealed that internet usage significantly promotes AMS access among middle- and high-education groups, younger groups, middle-scale farmers, middle- and high-income groups, and the eastern and western regions. Additionally, internet usage promotes farmers' access to AMS by expanding their information channels and strengthening their social networks.

Innovation is a key driver of high-quality economic development. Building strong relationships between central and local financial authorities, with a clear division of powers and responsibilities and well-coordinated fiscal resources, is both practical and significant. Such collaboration enhances the government’s ability to support scientific and technological innovation, leading to improved outcomes. In this study, multiple mechanisms of fiscal decentralization and government innovation investment in regional innovation were explored based on Chinese-style fiscal decentralization, the theory of fiscal decentralization, and the innovation system. Provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021 were used to examine both the direct effect of fiscal decentralization and the mediating effect of government innovation investment on regional innovation. The results show that fiscal decentralization distorts the government’s fiscal expenditure behavior, significantly inhibiting regional innovation enhancement. The results of a mechanism analysis demonstrate that fiscal decentralization weakens the government’s support and guidance for scientific and technological innovation, but increasing innovation investment can offset this effect and enhance the regional innovation level. Overall, fiscal decentralization negatively affects regional innovation by inhibiting the government’s innovation investment. To address these challenges, the fiscal system requires deeper reform, adjusting the relationship between central and local governments. Additional measures should include improving the government’s performance appraisal system, guiding local authorities to adopt appropriate performance perspectives, increasing fiscal expenditure and the government’s role in scientific and technological innovation, and enhancing independent scientific and technological innovation.

This study employs panel data and a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model to investigate the habit formation effect of food consumption among Chinese rural residents and its consequential impact on nutritional intake. The dataset, spanning from 2012 to 2018, encompasses nine provinces in China and involves 5390 rural households. The findings reveal that, excluding beef, mutton, and poultry, there are significant habit formation effect on the consumption of food categories, notably grains, vegetables, and edible oils. Lower-income and younger demographics demonstrate a more pronounced reliance on established dietary habits. Influenced by the habit formation effect, there is a substantial reduction in the income elasticity differences across various food types. Overlooking the habit formation effect in food consumption would lead to an underestimation of the income elasticity of energy, fat, and carbohydrates. This suggests that, over the long term, food consumption habit formation is a pivotal factor in enabling the enhancement of residents’ dietary structures, amplifying the incremental energy intake associated with income increases, and accelerating the transition towards nutritional surplus. The conclusions drawn from this study offer valuable insights for ensuring food security and nutritional balance. Policy-makers of food and nutrition strategies should duly consider the habit formation effect on residents’ food consumption, and seek to optimize dietary patterns and promote nutritional transformation by food consumption habit intervention.

China's cotton production has shown a concentration to the advantageous regions in recent years. Based on the relevant data of cotton production in China, the study measures the cotton production agglomeration levels of 16 major cotton-producing provinces from 1978 to 2020, summarizes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cotton production agglomeration, and analyzes the factors influencing cotton production agglomeration using spatial econometric models. The results indicate that: Firstly, since the opening-up and reform, China's cotton production agglomeration levels have shown an overall upward trend, exhibiting periodic dynamic changes over time, and the spatial pattern reveals a dynamic regional gradient. Secondly, there is spatial correlation among the production scales of cotton in different provinces, with a trend resembling a "U" shape, and the agglomeration form shows a low-level convergence. Thirdly, technological level, policies, substitute industrial products and foreign trade are identified as important factors. The cotton production in each province is spatially correlated through these factors, and there is also a presence of spillover effects. In conclusion, the government should prioritize considerations of various influencing factors to formulate tailored support policies, promote large-scale production to enhance technological levels, and focus on policies aimed at improving the quality of cotton.

The independent innovation of agricultural enterprises ensures national food security through enhancing food production efficiency and optimizing food nutritional quality. Independent innovation is an important way for the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises. However, in this process, there are issues such as long cycles and high risks. Based on this, using the panel data of China’s listed agricultural enterprises from 2007 to 2021, this study empirically examined the impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises, as well as the moderating effects of internal drivers (digital transformation) and external pull factors (government subsidies) through a two-way fixed effects model. The findings are the following: (1) The impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises exhibits an “inverted U-pattern”. When the R&D investment of agricultural enterprises accounts for 77.85% of operating income, the sustainable growth ability of agricultural enterprises is the highest. (2) Compared with large agricultural enterprises, small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises reach the threshold of independent innovation ability later, and the incentive effect range of independent innovation is longer. (3) Independent innovation exerts a more significant “inverted U” effect on the sustainable growth of non-state-owned agricultural enterprises and agricultural enterprises in the mature stage, while its impact on the sustainable growth of state-owned agricultural enterprises and agricultural enterprises in the growth and decline stages is not significant. (4) Government subsidies can help enhance the positive impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises when it does not exceed the threshold but cannot alleviate the negative impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises when it exceeds the threshold; investment in digital transformation not only helps to enhance the positive impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises when it does not exceed the threshold but also helps to alleviate the negative impact of independent innovation on the sustainable growth of agricultural enterprises when it exceeds the threshold. The research results provide data support for agricultural enterprises to carry out innovation activities under internal drive and external pull. At the same time, it is of great significance for the national implementation of the strategy of storing food in technology and food security strategy.

The planting industry is crucial in ensuring food security in China. The development of the planting industry has underpinned the country’s historic transition from merely achieving food sufficiency to enjoying high-quality diets, consequently promoting the gradual improvement of dietary quality among residents. In the new era, the development of the Chinese planting industry faces challenges from internal and external risk factors, such as resource environment pressure, extreme climate impacts, and unstable international geopolitical situations. This study predicts the food supply and demand situations in 2035 and 2050. Results show that net imports of grain in China will mainly focus on soybeans and corn, while the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed and sugar will continue to decline, the self-sufficient rate of peanuts and fruits will rise after declining first, and the vegetables will be more than self-sufficient. Thus, this study provides an overview and summary of the challenges faced by China’s planting industry regarding food security and proposes strategic ideas and policy recommendations for ensuring food security in the new era. These recommendations include improving the planting industry’s production capacity and structure, promoting low-carbon production and the efficient use of resources , optimizing residents’ consumption structure and health concepts, encouraging agricultural technology innovation and equipment development, and innovating new business entities. Major projects regarding technology innovation, quality improvement, ecological protection, and protein substitution are also proposed. Furthermore, we suggest adhering to the overall strategy of “ensuring basic selfsufficiency of grain and absolute security of staple food”, clarifying the industry development priorities by regions, improving the agricultural infrastructure and technology shortcomings, and perfecting the strategic system for responding to major crises, thereby enhancing the level of agricultural development and effectively ensuring food security in China.

Seed enterprises are crucial for ensuring national food security, the driving force behind the seed industry’s advancement, and the core entity in constructing a modern seed industry system. At the micro and macro levels, agricultural seed enterprises face challenges and pressures in earning excess profits, enhancing their competitive edge, and resisting the incursion of multinational seed enterprises. This article selects panel data from 49 listed seed enterprises in China from 2015 to 2022 and uses methods such as global principal component analysis (GPCA) and Q-type cluster analysis to measure and evaluate the competitiveness of Chinese seed enterprises. Research has found that: (1) From 2015 to 2022, the overall competitiveness of listed Chinese agricultural seed enterprises has shown an upward trend. The competitiveness of agricultural seed enterprises can be further decomposed into operational capabilities, growth capabilities, production efficiency, technological innovation capabilities, etc. (2) The top ten agricultural seed enterprises in China have obvious advantages in operational and technological innovation capabilities, but their growth capabilities and production efficiency are insufficient. (3) Regarding the vertical comparison of the seed industry, the ranking of the competitiveness of Chinese listed agricultural seed enterprises from strong to weak is wheat seed enterprises > other seed enterprises > melon and vegetable seed enterprises > corn seed enterprises > rice seed enterprises. (4) Compared with international seed industry giants, there are various reasons why China’s top agricultural seed enterprises have weaker competitiveness, specifically reflected in research and development investment, scale and market share, industrial layout, and other aspects. The findings of this research offer empirical evidence to bolster the competitiveness of seed enterprises and advance the seed industry, while also aiding in fortifying the nation’s strategic oversight of the seed sector, bearing profound implications for safeguarding food security.

从贸易规模、贸易对象、贸易价格和市场结构等方面,分析2021 年新种子法修订后种子贸易格局,运用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力和出口价格指数等评价种子国际竞争力,并探讨种子贸易格局与国际竞争力之间的关系.研究发现,全球大田作物类种子贸易呈逆差,少数国家粮食安全问题严峻;花卉类种子贸易互补性较强;蔬菜类种子出口国的龙头种企发挥主导作用.中国农作物种子进口市场结构趋于垄断化,而种子出口市场寡占、竞争和分散三种态势并存.进一步研究发现,与世界主要国家相比,中国种子国际竞争力较弱,并受诸多因素影响,其中外生因素包括技术性贸易措施、税收制度、贸易规则等,内生因素包括农作物种子的品质性状、种粮比效益等.因此,为促进中国农作物种业国际化发展以及种子更好地"引进来"和"走出去",应建立健全检疫监管体系、推动种子进口来源多元化、加强良种培育科技创新、监测管控种子进口价格以及鼓励跨国育种、海外制种等.

Part-time farming is a common characteristic of smallholder farmers in China at present, which is expected to persist in the long term. If China is to promote sustainable agricultural development, it is important to consider the impact of part-time employment characteristics on the grain-growing decisions of smallholder farmers. To analyze the impact mechanisms of smallholder farmers’ part-time employment on their grain-growing decisions, we used data consisting of 14,539 samples collected by a survey of the former Chinese Ministry of Agriculture National Rural Fixed Observation Point from 2009 to 2015 to empirically analyze the effect of the extent of smallholder farmers’ part-time employment on their grain-growing decisions using a dynamic panel regression model. Then, we constructed a mediating effect test model using the dynamic panel regression model as the benchmark model in order to empirically test the mediating effect of the adoption of agricultural production services. The results are as follows: as the extent of smallholder farmers’ part-time employment grows, smallholder farmers significantly reduce the sown areas of wheat and corn; furthermore, the adoption of agricultural production services is an important mediating variable to curb the negative effects of the extent of smallholder farmers’ part-time employment on their grain-sowing areas, and the “Extent of Smallholder Part-time Employment (EPE)→Adoption of Agricultural Production Services→Grain-Planting Decisions” is an important path by which the extent of smallholder farmers’ part-time employment affects their grain-growing decisions. Notably, all of the findings passed the influence mechanism test and, after a robustness test, remained valid. Based on the research findings, we propose policy recommendations, suggesting that the construction of agricultural production service systems should be improved with the orientation of high-quality agricultural development; the minimum purchase prices of wheat and corn should be appropriately increased in order to ensure that smallholder farmers receive reasonable economic returns from growing grain; and the attractiveness of growing grain to smallholder farmers should be improved.

Food security in China is facing new challenges, including instability of the international supply chain, transformation and upgrading of the food system, and increased pressure to further reduce carbon emissions, making the future supply and demand situation of food in China unoptimistic. Therefore, it is imperative to deepen research on national food security strategies. As is predicted using the China Agricultural Sector Model, China’s grain supply and demand gap will reach the peak (1.66 × 108 t) in 2030 and its food self-sufficiency rate will continuously decline; however, the gap is expected to drop from 2035–2050. From 2020–2050, the total demand for livestock products, aquatic products, rapeseed, and sugar will continuously grow while their net imports will maintain growth. To address the prominent problems regarding food security in China in terms of farmland, supply chain, nutritional structure, systemic risk, and technological innovation, we propose the establishment of an all-encompassing approach to food. Additionally, food security should be maintained by relying on domestic production and supported by moderate imports and technological innovation. An overall food-security strategy that features self-sufficiency of grains, self-reliance of major agricultural products, and national food sovereignty should be implemented. We should hold on to the bottom line of maintaining a selfsufficiency rate of 97% for staple grains, 90% for grains, and 80% for overall grain supply. Focusing on the goals of revitalizing the seed industry, boosting land capacity, preventing and mitigating disasters, and achieving high efficiency and low carbon, we suggest a series of major projects for upgrading the seed industry, constructing high-standard grain fields, guaranteeing regional food security, promoting green and low-carbon development of agriculture, and substituting conventional feed protein. Furthermore, major measures should be adopted to strengthen food demand management, expand food supply chains, and enhance risk control, thereby ensuring the quantity, quality, and nutritional security of national food.

基于2013-2018年12402份农户调研数据,运用Ⅳ-Probit模型,探究了经营规模分化视角下土地转入对农户农业生产性服务供给的影响.研究结果表明:土地转入显著促进了农户的农业生产性服务供给;农户的农业生产性服务供给选择存在经营规模临界值,仅当经营规模达到临界值后农户才会提供服务;异质性分析结果表明土地转入与经营规模仅在无合作社提供服务的村庄、平原地形村庄对农户服务供给具有显著影响.因此,在我国农业生产性服务发展进程中,应重视农户的农业生产性服务供给潜力,为其发展提供政策扶持;继续引导农村土地流转,合理配置农村土地资源;注重不同地区资源禀赋特征,因地制宜制定农业生产性服务发展政策.

The transformation of agricultural production modes is an inevitable trend in China’s agricultural development. It is important to study the willingness of smallholder farmers to adjust their agricultural production modes to promote the transformation of China’s agricultural production modes. Agricultural production services are an effective way to realize the organic linkage between smallholder farmers and modern agriculture. To analyze the impact of agricultural production services on smallholder farmers’ willingness to adjust their agricultural production modes, this study uses data from a thematic study of 590 smallholder farmers in the Huang–Huai–Hai regions in 2022 to measure the extent of smallholder farmers’ full-cycle adoption of agricultural production services from the perspective of regional cropping systems for the first time and analyzes the impact of agricultural production services on farmers’ willingness to adjust their agricultural production modes. The study results show that the extent of full-cycle adoption of agricultural production services significantly affects farmers’ willingness to adjust their agricultural production modes. For each unit increase in the extent of full-cycle adoption of agricultural production services in line with the regional cropping system, the probability of farmers choosing “farmland transfer” and “agricultural production trusteeship” becomes 11.31 and 7.24 times higher than that of choosing “self-growing”, respectively. Based on the research results, this paper proposes the following countermeasures: first, we should pay more attention to the supply and demand of agricultural production services, especially to support the key weak links in developing agricultural production services for the process of grain production. Second, we should undertake more active and effective publicity measures to make full use of expressions that are acceptable to farmers to improve their understanding of productive agricultural services further and enhance their willingness to adopt productive agricultural services.

Food concerns national livelihood and food security is vital for national security. In the context of “dual circulation” (i.e., domestic and international economic circulation) in China, clarifying the basic situation and challenges of food security and exploring effective strategies for food development are crucial for ensuring stable national development. Using national macro statistics, we first analyzed the basic situation of food security in China and the challenges it faces in the context of “dual circulation”. Subsequently, we made a macro study on national food security and proposed the goals, strategic paths, major projects, and feasible countermeasures for ensuring national food security. Our study indicates that there exists a large gap between food supply and demand, a high degree of external dependence, and a large amount of imports of feed protein in China, as well as challenges including the difficulty in substituting feed protein domestically, rigidness of environmental restrictions on soil and water resources, low incentives for farmers to grow grains, and insufficient risk-resistant capabilities of the food security system. Moreover, we proposed a series of major projects, such as demonstration for upgrading grain production capacity, new protein resource substitution, green and lowcarbon planting and breeding circulation, development and utilization of international grain resources, and research and development demonstration of future foods. Several development strategies were further suggested, including the establishment of a food security guarantee system, moderate expansion of cultivated land areas, sustained increase in oil-bearing plant production, steady resumption of a multiple cropping system in South China, and sustained advancement of a rotational cropping system in North China.

Food security is a national priority and a cornerstone for maintaining national and regional stability. Focusing on cropping structure directly related to food security, this paper estimates the causal effect of urbanization on cropping restructuring in China. We use provincial panel data between 2000 and 2019 and threshold regression models to identify potential structural mutation characteristics. This study is an attempt to fill the cognitive gap for the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and cropping restructure. Urbanization formed agricultural labor supply constraints that significantly increased the share of sown area of grain crops, but with obvious threshold characteristics, and the effect of urbanization on cropping structure was no longer significant after crossing the threshold. Urbanization in the main grain-producing regions and main grain-selling regions promoted the adjustment of cropping structure in the direction of grain but was not significant in balanced production and marketing regions. Short-distance urbanization did not bring significant effects on cropping restructuring. We propose several suggestions for cultivated land planting structure, urbanization, and food security.

农业劳动力转移对农地流转的影响一直是学术界关注的重要议题,但农户风险偏好情境下的异质性讨论仍不充分.为此,在引入农户风险偏好因素后,基于2019年中国农村微观经济数据,利用Probit模型实证考察农业劳动力转移对农地流转的影响效应.结果显示:农业劳动力转移显著提高农地转出行为的发生概率,并且具有明显的农户风险偏好异质性,表现为风险厌恶型农户在面临劳动力供给约束时更倾向将农地转出,但该效应在风险偏好型农户群体不显著.此外,农业劳动力转移对农地转出规模具有显著正向影响.文章认为应关注农业劳动力转移影响农地流转的农户风险偏好情境依赖性,疏通农地流转的堵点,助力实现农业规模化.

The role of enterprise technological innovation in driving high-quality economic development has become increasingly prominent in a dynamic environment of uncertainty. This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise technological innovation and its mechanism of action using panel data of agricultural listed firms in China 2007–2021. We obtain the following results. (1) Economic policy uncertainty significantly promotes technological innovation in agricultural firms, and this finding holds under various robustness checks, and works mainly through two paths: tightening financial flexibility and highlighting managerial capabilities. (2) From the heterogeneity results, the incentive effect of economic policy uncertainty on technological innovation in agricultural firms is more pronounced in state-owned agricultural firms, basic agricultural firms, and high adjustment cost agricultural firms. (3) Government subsidies strengthen the role of economic policy uncertainty in promoting technological innovation in agricultural firms. The results of this study provide data support for agricultural firms technology innovation decisions and have important implications for the guidance of national economic policy formulation.