悠悠万事,吃饭为大.十几亿人口要吃饭,是我国最大的国情."全方位夯实粮食安全根基""确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链安全",党的二十大报告将粮食安全纳入国家安全能力统筹考量,对保障粮食安全提出了更高要求.

To ensure grain security, it is not only necessar y to protect farmers’ enthusiasm to grow grain, but also to stimulate local governments’ enthusiasm to stabilize grain production. The significant achievements in grain production in China cannot be achieved without the implementation by local governments and key officials. Ensuring that the central and local governments share the same goals in grain governance through official incentives is an important aspect of policy implementation,but little research has focused on it. Based on the promotion tournament theory, this paper makes use of the panel data of 31 provinces from 2003 to 2019 to construct an official promotion model. Then it analyzes the paths to improve the motivation of local governments to stabilize grain production from the perspective of official incentives and examines whether grain production performance is one of the elements of official promotion. The findings show that grain production performance is conducive to official promotion in the grain-producing regions. In contrast, it is not significant for the promotion of officials in the grain production and marketing balance areas, the main marketing areas and the full samples. This conclusion is verified by the robustness test and the endogeneity test. It is confirmed that in the main grain-producing regions, a channel has been established for local officials to be promoted through stabilizing grain production, and the promotion tournament is an important mechanism to stabilize grain production. In the future, we should optimize the provincial governor responsibility system for grain security, improve the incentive accuracy and pertinence of officials in ensuring grain security, strengthen the use of local grain security assessment results, improve the incentive intensity of grain security officials, enhance the sense of responsibility for stabilizing grain production of the local Party and government officials, and implement the same responsibilities of the Party and government officials in grain security.

The concept of "macro view on food" puts forward higher requirements for China’s food supply, which is an important strategy to cope with the shortage of resources and the increase of people’s needs for a better life. However, there are obvious differences in food gap estimation results in China, and the theory of food security and resource security is not clear, which is not conducive to in-depth understanding and practice of "macro view on food". From the perspective of dietary nutrition, this paper estimates the main food supply and demand gaps in China from the perspectives of production, consumption and nutrition,draws the gap matrix, and further calculates the virtual land resources and water resources gaps under the food gap. It is found that there are at least four types of food gap in China, among which the "double shortage of production and demand" of beans and milk and "insufficient production" of edible vegetable oil, meat and eggs are the key weaknesses. In the long term, there are two hidden dangers in food supply: uneven nutrition and insufficient resource support capacity. This paper argues that under the "macro view on food", food security and resource security are unity. It is necessary to ensure both food and resource security,not only to guide residents’ nutritional consumption and improve the structure of food supply and demand, but also to expand territorial space resources, reduce the pressure of arable land and water resources, and ensure the sustainable utilization of resources.

Farmland is the basis of national food security and the launch of food crop production strategy based on farmland is an important measure to improve it. Overall, the protection of farmland system in China has undergone three stages. At the first stage, the purpose of farmland protection is ensuring the areas. Then,the goal has oriented to quantity guarantee and quality improvement. At last, ecology protection has also been added to the strategy. From the theoretical perspective, this strategy embodies the practice of Max’ idea of land and Factor theory in China. Improving the efficiency of farmland is an effective way to achieve the Pareto equilibrium. At present, farmland protection is faced with many challenges, such as insufficient arable and reserve farmland resources, limited sustainable development, non-grain production, misallocation of water and heat resources, etc. Under the new circumstance, in order to comprehensively implement the strategy,governments should strengthen the control of farmland use, vigorously improve the quality of arable land,optimize the match of resources, and press down the responsibility of food security to municipal authorities.

To consolidate the foundation of food security in an all-round way, the fundamental lies in mobilizing farmers’ enthusiasm for grain cultivation, and the key to mobilizing farmers’ enthusiasm for grain cultivation is to ensure farmers’ income from grain cultivation. The current low income from grain cultivation has led to low farmers’ enthusiasm for grain cultivation, which is characterized by high pressure to stabilize the area of grain cultivation, extensive management and the spread of abandonment, the intensification of “non grain” cultivation of cultivated land, and the weakening of grain cultivation entities. From a deeper perspective, the main reasons for farmers’ low enthusiasm for grain cultivation are the gap between grain subsidies and developed countries, the lower growth rate of grain income than production costs, the significant benefit difference between grain crops and cash crops, and the gradual expansion of the gap between grain income and non agricultural income. In view of this, in the future, it is necessary to build a mechanism to mobilize farmers’ enthusiasm for grain cultivation from four aspects: optimizing grain cultivation policies, controlling grain cultivation costs, improving comprehensive grain benefits, and strengthening grain cultivation services, to ensure the healthy and sustainable grain production system with farmers as the subject.

Since the 21st century, the main way to control the trade of agricultural products has gradually changed from embargo to export restriction. In 2022, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Russia and other countries announced urgent restrictions on the export of resource-based agricultural products, showing that they are large exporters of agricultural products with traditional advantages, that their products are mainly necessities and strategic resources, and that the period of export restrictions is longer than the initial period of COVID-19. It is found that the current trend of agricultural protectionism has little impact on grain security, but we need to be highly vigilant about the import risk of oil, soybean and sugar, and the impact on the price transmission is inevitable. We should not relax our efforts at any time to ensure the security of grain, cotton, oil, sugar and other resource-based agricultural products. We should further enhance our understanding of the actual situation in China, accelerate the establishment of a mechanism for ensuring grain security for farmers, promote the diversification strategy of Chinese imports, and exploit the potential of saving and stopping losses so as to avoid the risks of volatile international markets.

粮食安全是"国之大者",这是基于粮食战略价值作出的重大判断.党的十八大以来,党中央围绕打牢"中国饭碗"底座,出台了一系列巩固粮食生产根基的举措,实行粮食安全党政同责、建设高标准农田、落实粮食种植面积.粮食综合生产能力不断提高,供给保障能力明显增强,特别是连续多年产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上.同时,由于强烈依赖自然环境,决定了粮食生产的天然弱质性,易受光照、水源、土地等自然条件,以及洪涝、干旱等自然灾害的影响.从世界范围看,粮食受自然环境制约,"靠天吃饭"问题难以从根本上解决.为此,党的二十大报告提出,"全方位夯实粮食安全根基".

为提高中国小麦国际竞争力,本文通过美国农业部(USDA)、联合国粮食及农业组织(FAO)统计数据库官网以及《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》和世界贸易组织(WTO)政策支持文件,查找并收集小麦收获面积、产量、贸易、成本收益、政策支持强度等相关数据,总结中国小麦生产现状,分析其现存的主要问题.结果表明,中国小麦生产中,高投入、高产出、低收益特征明显;人工和土地成本增加使中国小麦种植成本居高不下;中国小麦单位面积人均净利润整体呈大幅下降趋势,但始终高于欧盟和美国;化肥、农药投入产出比偏低,影响中国小麦产业的可持续发展和竞争力;中国对小麦产业的政策支持强度持续增高,近些年高于美国、欧盟和加拿大的政策支持强度;中国小麦价格受政策、供需影响,竞争力较弱.针对目前中国小麦产业存在的问题,本文提出了"优化小麦产业结构,提升中国小麦品质"、"提升小麦生产规模化组织水平及农业机械化水平,降低生产成本"、"减少化肥、农药使用量,提升化肥、农药使用率"、"完善政府支持政策"等建议.

[目的]2020年以来,中国玉米市场发生深刻变化,呈现进口首次突破配额、进口市场更加集中、进口规模增长间隔短和价格创记录4个特点;从长期看,中国玉米供应偏紧、价格倒挂,以及进口量增加难以逆转,玉米正在呈现大豆的苗头性迹象.文章旨在宏观研判玉米发展成为"第二个大豆"的可能性,并从战略布局予以防止.[方法]从多方面对比了中国玉米产业和大豆产业特征的异同,为回答玉米是否会成为"第二个大豆"这一问题提供了多角度证据.[结果]玉米产业形势相对乐观,不会成为"第二个大豆",但玉米产业自身的发展特性和中国玉米产业现存的困境不容忽视.[结论]科学把控,系统谋划,综合施策,从种植结构调整、良种攻关、全程机械化、优势玉米带建设、烘干设施、"走出去"六大工程着手,解决玉米产业技术装备相对落后、竞争力弱、需求增速快等难题,从战略上防止玉米成为第二个大豆.

西北旱区粮食流通链条长、调运成本高,确保粮食生产稳定、实现产销平衡,是保持社会稳定、确保国防安全、巩固脱贫成果的有力保障.以干旱缺水为代表的众多因素制约着该区域粮食生产,但旱作农业技术的突破、北方气候的暖湿化趋势也意味着其粮食增产具有巨大潜力.近年来,西北旱区粮食总产量增速高于全国平均水平,耐旱作物占主导地位,水资源利用效率高,生产集约化、产业化水平显著提升.实践证明,旱区也可以变为粮仓,特别是基本农田建设以及玉米全膜双垄沟播技术和马铃薯黑膜覆盖种植技术的大面积推广,突破了旱作农业资源瓶颈,充分展现了"藏粮于地、藏粮于技"战略的重大效用.为此,建议国家制定黄河流域高质量发展战略农业行动方案、对产销平衡区的粮食主产县给予同等政策支持、出台绿色技术补贴、鼓励农牧结合、支持粮食就地加工、进一步把党政同责落到实处,以实现稳定的粮食产销平衡,保持旱区粮食发展好势头.

2020、2021年我国玉米进口规模突破进口配额后仍大幅增加,引起社会广泛关注.对近期数据的分析表明,在进口玉米不具有价格优势下我国玉米进口量仍大幅增加,玉米饲用消费增加是导致玉米进口量增加的主要因素.在中长期我国玉米产不足需和以制度型开放为标志的更高水平开放背景下,要充分利用国内国际两个市场、两种资源,以国内市场供给的稳定性应对国际市场的不确定性,重点应从以下四个方面着手:加大支持力度,稳定玉米播种面积;增加科技投入,提高玉米单产水平;优化配方结构,促进饲料中玉米减量替代;深化国际合作,加强饲料粮进口来源多元化.

为了解玉米收储制度改革以来东北地区家庭农场的经营行为,基于辽宁省朝阳市H县22家省级示范家庭农场的面板调查数据,重点从玉米种植行为的变化情况、玉米销售行为的变化情况、质量和风险意识的变化情况3个方面分析了2016年以来家庭农场经营行为的变化及其影响因素.结果表明:1)受人均耕地面积较小和土地集中连片申报要求的制约,家庭农场大部分土地需要流转,流转的土地土质较差、普遍缺乏灌溉条件,种植玉米面临较高的自然风险;2)受其他农产品市场价格波动大且常常面临销售困难、玉米出售价格呈上涨趋势、玉米种植省时省力等因素的影响,家庭农场种植玉米具有一定的刚性;3)受经营规模较小和缺乏带动能力强的新型农业经营主体等因素的影响,家庭农场仍然选择一次性将玉米出售给上门收购的小商贩;4)面对市场的不确定性,家庭农场风险意识明显增强,表现为都有购买农业保险的意愿和最关注玉米市场价格信息,但质量意识有待提高.

在当前世界百年未有之大变局和中华民族伟大复兴战略全局两个"大局"下,国内粮食支持保护政策面临新的要求和挑战.自2015年国家开启新一轮最低收购价政策改革以来,政策连续调整对我国稻谷生产及粮食安全带来的影响值得关注.本文聚焦新发展阶段最低收购价政策调整的背景,基于2004—2019年全国省级面板数据,采用广义合成控制法,分析新一轮政策调整对稻谷播种面积、单产及产量影响的作用机理与政策效应.研究结果表明:新一轮政策调整对稻谷播种面积有显著的负向影响,且政策作用效果具有明显的区域异质性,对稻谷产量波动产生一定的风险.进一步分析发现,在最低收购价格不再连续上调的压力下,稻谷播种面积出现明显调减,产量增加主要依赖于单产提升.因此,需关注本轮政策调整的影响及风险,在保持国内最低收购价政策基本框架稳定的前提下,坚持循序渐进主原则和市场调节主方向,进一步推动政策改革深化,同时完善配套支持政策,加强生物育种和科技创新,牢牢守住国家粮食安全的底线.

俄罗斯与乌克兰是国际上重要的粮食生产与出口大国,在全球粮食市场中具有重要的地位.2022年年初开始的俄乌冲突对全球粮食价格、供求和种植等方面均造成了严重的负面影响,也暴露出中国油料作物、饲料作物在进口环节所面临的潜在风险.以俄乌冲突为代表的地缘矛盾对于中国保障粮食安全具有较强的警示意义.中国要警惕全面制裁带来的粮油供应不足,重新评估利用国际市场维护粮食安全的风险和难度,防备种子、能源、物流等因素对粮食市场的溢出效应等.为此,中国应当牢牢树立粮食安全主动权思维,积极采取进口来源多元化、参与全球粮食贸易规则制定等措施,全面提升利用"两个市场、两种资源"保障粮食安全的能力.

党的二十大报告高度重视粮食安全与耕地保护,提出"全方位夯实粮食安全根基",这是基于粮食战略价值作出的重大判断,是全面系统准确把握我国粮食安全主动权的战略部署和政策导向.中国的耕地保护利用政策经历了从保障耕地数量为主,到"数量—质量"并重,再到"数量—质量—生态"三重保护的三个阶段,现已形成了包括基本农田保护制度、土地用途管制制度、耕地占补平衡制度等在内的最严格耕地保护制度体系."藏粮于地"战略是中国遵循理论和立足实践主动选择的重大战略决策,内蕴着深厚的逻辑根源.当前和今后,中国的耕地保护面临数量不足、质量不高、投入不够、人地失衡等问题,需要构建"一个方针、双向发力、三位一体"的耕地保护新格局.

中国粮食连年丰产但中央政府并没有降低对粮食安全的关注度,持续夯实粮食产能,立足自身应对需求刚性增长.文章对近年粮食生产结构调整走向,要素配置变化进行了归纳,并对粮食生产技术演变和产量潜力进行分析.结果表明,土地、水资源以及成本收益情况是粮食增产的强约束,必须依靠技术路径突破,服务规模化和经营规模化,提高生产要素边际收益.即使在技术突破时间表不确定的前提下,三大主粮特别是玉米单产增长还有较大提升空间.根据最近3次千亿斤(0.5亿t)产能增加单产增长趋势、各品种增产贡献率以及生产形势,对下一个千亿斤增产进行了3种情境预测:若水稻、小麦和玉米的年均单产增长率分别为0.7％、1.0％和0.8％,可在2026年实现7.0亿t产能,并减少约50万hm2播种面积;在水稻、小麦和玉米为0.2％、0.3％和0.4％的低增速并减少播种面积141万hm2的情境下,可在2035年提升至7.0亿t产能.当前,粮食产能稳定增长的关键在于生产(生产环节)规模化、种业攻关和农田质量建设能否取得实质性推进.

俄罗斯和乌克兰作为粮食生产与出口大国,两国冲突给世界经济体系带来全方位冲击,对国际粮食市场局势发展的深度影响不容忽视.一方面,需着眼当前,判断俄乌冲突对全球粮食价格、贸易的直接影响;另一方面,需放眼长期,厘清其对世界特别是中国粮食的深层次影响.分析结果认为:除直接加剧全球粮食供应紧张、刺激粮食价格强势上涨、影响局部贸易活动外,持续的俄乌冲突还将进一步激化粮食供求矛盾,推高农业生产成本,改变全球粮食贸易格局.因此,为应对震荡的国际粮食市场,中国需从战略上积极谋划、抓紧布局,更加有效地统筹利用国内国外两个市场、两种资源.

2021年,我国粮食生产再获丰收,产量创历史新高,达到13657亿斤,在高基数上增加了267亿斤,同比增长2％,保障国家粮食安全的基础继续向好.但从中长期看,我国粮食供求仍将处于一种紧平衡态势,粮食供需存在较为突出的结构性矛盾."十四五"时期,随着居民收入水平提高,食物消费条件进一步改善,人口保持增长、城镇化率进一步提高,我国粮食消费需求总量仍将处于扩张阶段,尤其是饲料粮需求仍有较大增长空间,加工粮需求也保持着稳定增加趋势.根据中国农业科学院和国际食物政策研究所共同开发的CASM模型预测,到2025年,我国粮食需求总量将达到8.6亿吨,比2020年增加6％.粮食需求增长压力下,确保我国粮食生产持续稳定以及粮食生产能力稳步提高,是实现我国粮食安全目标的重要基石.2022年中央一号文件提出今年"三农"工作的首要任务是"稳定全年粮食播种面积和产量"、"全力抓好粮食生产和重要农产品供给",只有稳住国内粮食生产供给基本盘,才能"端牢中国饭碗",确保国家粮食安全.

2020年1月,中美两国签署了第一阶段《中华人民共和国政府和美利坚合众国政府经济贸易协议》,最重要的内容是增加了中国对美国商品的采购规模,特别是对中国进口美国农产品做了比较细致的规定.《协议》实施后,中国大幅增加了美国农产品进口规模,但由于多种原因未达到预期设定目标,这既有疫情影响,又有对未来目标乐观高估所致,这也决定了第二阶段谈判会异常艰难.面对当前复杂的中美贸易环境,我国既要注意贸易统计口径的细节,又要化被动为主动,坚定不移地推进农产品进口多元化策略,稳定供应链,在双循环格局下实现农产品进口安全.

在我国粮食产量自2004年以来取得连续丰收的同时,粮食生产的物质和服务费用快速上升,逐渐步入高投入、高成本阶段.而且成本压力无法向市场价格传导,"两头挤"导致种粮收益空间日益缩小.在我国原粮整体竞争力不足、加工环节优势不断凸显的背景下,更要树立"大产业"理念,延长粮食产业链,形成国内大市场,巩固扩大粮食产业园模式,促进粮食全产业提质增效.