Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km2 (low), 160 km2 (medium), or 300 km2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km2 (low), 240 km2 (medium), or 370 km2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

The 26 January 1700 CE Cascadia subduction zone earthquake ruptured much of the plate boundary and generated a tsunami that deposited sand in coastal marshes from northern California to Vancouver Island. Although the depositional record of tsunami inundation is extensive in some of these marshes, few sites have been investigated in enough detail to map the inland extent of sand deposition and depict variability in tsunami deposit thickness and grain size. We collected 129 cores in marshes of the Salmon River estuary in Oregon and reanalyzed 114 core logs from a 1987-88 study that mapped the inland extent of circa 1700 CE sandy tsunami deposits. The ca. 1700 CE tsunami deposit in the Salmon River estuary is easily recognized in cores <= 1 m deep in which a buried marsh peat is overlain by a well sorted sand bed with a sharp lower contact that thins and fines inland. We use tsunami deposit data and models of sandy tsunami sediment transport (using Delft3D-FLOW) to test 15 rupture models that could represent a ca. 1700 CE earthquake. At least 12-16 m of slip offshore of the Salmon River, which results in 0.8-1.0 m of coastal coseismic subsidence, is required to match the ca. 1700 CE sand deposit's inland extent, which is consistent with models of heterogeneous megathrust slip in ca. 1700 CE. Our methods of detailed tsunami deposit mapping, combined with sediment transport modeling, can be used to test models of megathrust ruptures and their tsunamis to potentially improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessments. We rely on the geologic record of great earthquakes and tsunamis, often preserved in the stratigraphy of coastal estuaries, to determine the size, frequency, and location of prehistoric events. At the Cascadia subduction zone, the 1700 CE earthquake caused a meter or more of sudden coastal subsidence and a tsunami that not only inundated coastal areas in Cascadia but was also recorded in Japan. Computer modeling implies that the earthquake occurred around 9 p.m. on 26 January 1700. Although sandy tsunami deposits from the 1700 earthquake are widespread throughout Cascadia, few sites have been cored extensively enough to confidently identify the inland extent of sandy tsunami deposits. We used over 200 sediment cores from the Salmon River estuary in Oregon to map the extent of sandy tsunami deposits from 1700. We then ran numerical models of sediment transport driven by a variety of earthquake generation sources to determine that earthquakes causing at least 0.8 m of subsidence are needed to generate a modeled tsunami capable of recreating the 1700 tsunami deposits observed in cores. This study demonstrates that tsunami deposit mapping and modeling methods can be used to improve our understanding of the impacts of past great earthquakes and tsunamis. Models of sediment transport test earthquake and tsunami sources by comparing the modeled and observed distribution of sandy deposits Sandy deposits can define the minimum inundation of the last major tsunami, around 1700 CE, generated at the Cascadia subduction zone To match tsunami deposit data, models require an earthquake that caused >= 0.8 m of coastal coseismic subsidence at the Salmon River

We compare event deposits from the historical portion of the sedimentary record from Lower Acorn Woman Lake, Oregon, to historical records of regional events to determine if the lake records Cascadia earthquakes. We use the sedimentological characteristics and x-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) provenance of disturbance deposits (labelled A-J) from the historical portion (post 1650 CE) of the record to discriminate between deposit types. We show that earthquake-triggered deposits can be differentiated from flood deposits, and Cascadia earthquakes deposits can be differentiated from other types of earthquake deposits. Event deposit J dates close to 1700 CE (1680-1780 CE) through multiple approaches, suggesting it was the result of shaking from the magnitude (M) 8.8-9.2 1700 CE Cascadia megathrust earthquake. Event deposits H and I are a complex sequence deposited in response to the ~M7.0 1873 CE Brookings earthquake. This earthquake has been previously interpreted to be an intraplate earthquake, is reinterpreted here as the result of an earthquake on a nearby crustal fault. Furthermore, the methods used have uncovered a previously unrecognized crustal earthquake deposit in the tail of deposit J, suggesting a stress relationship between Cascadia earthquakes and crustal earthquakes. These results not only demonstrate the usefulness of these methods to identify cryptic earthquake deposits and discriminate between subduction earthquake and other type of earthquake deposits in sediments from small, Cascadia lakes, but also suggest previously unknown relationships between subduction and crustal earthquakes in Cascadia.

Research over the past decade in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands has offered surprising insights into the pulses of great earthquakes that generate dangerous, often long-distance tsunamis.

The tsunami associated with the giant 9.5 M-w 1960 Chile earthquake deposited an extensive sand layer above organic-rich soils near Queule (39.3 degrees S, 73.2 degrees W), south-central Chile. Using the 1960 tsunami deposits, together with eye-witness observations and numerical simulations of tsunami inundation, we tested the tsunami inundation sensitivity of the site to different earthquake slip distributions. Stratigraphically below the 1960 deposit are two additional widespread sand layers interpreted as tsunami deposits with maximum ages of 4960-4520 and 5930-5740 cal BP. This >4500-year gap of tsunami deposits preserved in the stratigraphic record is inconsistent with written and geological records of large tsunamis in south-central Chile in 1575, 1837, and possibly 1737. We explain this discrepancy by: (1) poor preservation of tsunami deposits due to reduced accommodation space from relative sea-level fall during the late Holocene; (2) recently evolved coastal geomorphology that increased sediment availability for tsunami deposit formation in 1960; and/or (3) the possibility that the 1960 tsunami was significantly larger at this particular location than other tsunamis in the past >4500 years. Our research illustrates the complexities of reconstructing a complete stratigraphic record of past tsunamis from a single site for tsunami hazard assessment.

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M w 9.1 (required today) to M w 8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

ABSTRACTHolocene crustal faulting in the northern Olympic Peninsula of Washington State manifests in a zone of west-northwest-striking crustal faults herein named the North Olympic fault zone, which extends for ∼80 km along strike and includes the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault to the east and the Sadie Creek fault and newly discovered scarps to the west. This study focuses on the Sadie Creek fault, which extends for >14 km west-northwest from Lake Crescent. Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) imagery reveals the trace of the Sadie Creek fault and offset postglacial landforms showing a history of Holocene surface-rupturing earthquakes dominated by dextral displacement along a steeply dipping fault zone. Paleoseismic trenches at two sites on the Sadie Creek fault reveal till and outwash overlain by progressively buried forest and wetland soils developed on scarp-derived colluvial wedges. Trench exposures of complex faulting with subhorizontal slickenlines indicate dextral displacement with lesser dip slip. Correlation of broadly constrained time intervals for earthquakes at the Sadie Creek sites and those to the east along the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault is consistent with rupture of much of the length of the North Olympic fault zone three to four times: at about 11, 7, 3, and 1 ka, with a shorter rupture at about 8.5 ka. Dated ruptures from trenches only partially coincide with coseismic landslides and megaturbidites in Lake Crescent, indicating that some earthquakes did not trigger megaturbidites, and some turbidites were unrelated to local fault rupture. Landform mapping suggests single-event dextral displacement of 4±1 m on the Sadie Creek fault. Inferred maximum rupture length and single-event slip imply earthquake magnitudes Mw 7.0–7.5. Dextral slip rates of 1.3–2.3 mm/yr and the ∼11,000 yr slip history suggest that the North Olympic fault zone is a prominent contributor to permanent strain in the northern Cascadia fore-arc.

Lithology and microfossil biostratigraphy beneath the marshes of a central Oregon estuary limit geophysical models of Cascadia megathrust rupture during successive earthquakes by ruling out >0.5 m of coseismic coastal subsidence for the past 2000 yr. Although the stratigraphy in cores and outcrops includes as many as 12 peat-mud contacts, like those commonly inferred to record subsidence during megathrust earthquakes, mapping, qualitative diatom analysis, foraminiferal transfer function analysis, and 14C dating of the contacts failed to confirm that any contacts formed through subsidence during great earthquakes. Based on the youngest peat-mud contact’s distinctness, >400 m distribution, ∼0.6 m depth, and overlying probable tsunami deposit, we attribute it to the great 1700 CE Cascadia earthquake and(or) its accompanying tsunami. Minimal changes in diatom assemblages from below the contact to above its probable tsunami deposit suggest that the lower of several foraminiferal transfer function reconstructions of coseismic subsidence across the contact (0.1–0.5 m) is most accurate. The more limited stratigraphic extent and minimal changes in lithology, foraminifera, and(or) diatom assemblages across the other 11 peat-mud contacts are insufficient to distinguish them from contacts formed through small, gradual, or localized changes in tide levels during river floods, storm surges, and gradual sea-level rise. Although no data preclude any contacts from being synchronous with a megathrust earthquake, the evidence is equally consistent with all contacts recording relative sea-level changes below the ∼0.5 m detection threshold for distinguishing coseismic from nonseismic changes.

A new history of great earthquakes (and their tsunamis) for the central and southern Cascadia subduction zone shows more frequent (17 in the past 6700 yr) megathrust ruptures than previous coastal chronologies. The history is based on along-strike correlations of Bayesian age models derived from evaluation of 554 radiocarbon ages that date earthquake evidence at 14 coastal sites. We reconstruct a history that accounts for all dated stratigraphic evidence with the fewest possible ruptures by evaluating the sequence of age models for earthquake or tsunami contacts at each site, comparing the degree of temporal overlap of correlated site age models, considering evidence for closely spaced earthquakes at four sites, and hypothesizing only maximum-length megathrust ruptures. For the past 6700 yr, recurrence for all earthquakes is 370e420 yr. But correlations suggest that ruptures at-1.5 ka and-1.1 ka were of limited extent (<400 km). If so, post-3-ka recurrence for ruptures extending throughout central and southern Cascadia is 510e540 yr. But the range in the times between earthquakes is large: two instances may be-50 yr, whereas the longest are-550 and-850 yr. The closely spaced ruptures about 1.6 ka may illustrate a pattern common at subduction zones of a long gap ending with a great earthquake rupturing much of the subduction zone, shortly followed by a rupture of more limited extent. The ruptures of limited extent support the continued inclusion of magnitude-8 earthquakes, with longer ruptures near magnitude 9, in assessments of seismic hazard in the region. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

We infer a history of three great megathrust earthquakes during the past 2000 years at the Nehalem River estuary based on the lateral extent of sharp (≤3 mm) peat-mud stratigraphic contacts in cores and outcrops, coseismic subsidence as interpreted from fossil diatom assemblages and reconstructed with foraminiferal assemblages using a Bayesian transfer function, and regional correlation of 14C-modeled ages for the times of subsidence. A subsidence contact from 1700 CE (contact A), sometimes overlain by tsunami-deposited sand, can be traced over distances of 7 km. Contacts B and D, which record subsidence during two earlier megathrust earthquakes, are much less extensive but are traced across a 700-m by 270-m tidal marsh. Although some other Cascadia studies report evidence for an earthquake between contacts B and D, our lack of extensive evidence for such an earthquake may result from the complexities of preserving identifiable evidence of it in the rapidly shifting shoreline environments of the lower river and bay. Ages (95% intervals) and subsidence for contacts are: A, 1700 CE (1.1 ± 0.5 m); B, 942–764 cal a BP (0.7 ± 0.4 m and 1.0 m ± 0.4 m); and D, 1568–1361 cal a BP (1.0 m ± 0.4 m). Comparisons of contact subsidence and the degree of overlap of their modeled ages with ages for other Cascadia sites are consistent with megathrust ruptures many hundreds of kilometers long. But these data cannot conclusively distinguish among different types or lengths of ruptures recorded by the three great earthquake contacts at the Nehalem River estuary.

Far‐field tsunami deposits observed in the Kahana Valley, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i (USA), were investigated for their organic‐geochemical content. During short high‐energy events, (tsunamis and storms) organic and chemical components are transported with sediment from marine to terrestrial areas. This study investigates the use of anthropogenic based organic geochemical compounds (such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides and organochlorides) as a means to identify tsunami deposits. Samples were processed by solid–liquid extraction and analyzed using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. A total of 21 anthropogenic marker compounds were identified, of which 11 compounds were selected for detailed analysis. Although the tsunami deposits pre‐date industrial activity in Hawai‘i by several hundred years, distinct changes were found in the concentrations of anthropogenic marker compounds between sandy tsunami deposits and the surrounding mud/peat layers, which may help in identifying tsunami deposits within cores. As expected, low overall concentrations of anthropogenic markers and pollutants were observed due to the lack of industrial input‐sources and little anthropogenic environmental impact at the study site. This geochemical characterization of tsunami deposits shows that anthropogenic markers have significant potential as another high‐resolution, multi‐proxy method for identifying tsunamis in the sedimentary record.

Over the past 200 years of written records, the Hawaiian Islands have experienced tens of tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the subduction zones of the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’ (for example, Alaska–Aleutian, Kuril–Kamchatka, Chile and Japan). Mapping and dating anomalous beds of sand and silt deposited by tsunamis in low‐lying areas along Pacific coasts, even those distant from subduction zones, is critical for assessing tsunami hazard throughout the Pacific basin. This study searched for evidence of tsunami inundation using stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses of potential tsunami deposits beneath present and former Hawaiian wetlands, coastal lagoons, and river floodplains. Coastal wetland sites on the islands of Hawai΄i, Maui, O΄ahu and Kaua΄i were selected based on historical tsunami runup, numerical inundation modelling, proximity to sandy source sediments, degree of historical wetland disturbance, and breadth of prior geological and archaeological investigations. Sand beds containing marine calcareous sediment within peaty and/or muddy wetland deposits on the north and north‐eastern shores of Kaua΄i, O΄ahu and Hawai΄i were interpreted as tsunami deposits. At some sites, deposits of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis are analogues for deeper, older probable tsunami deposits. Radiocarbon‐based age models date sand beds from three sites to ca 700 to 500 cal yr bp, which overlaps ages for tsunami deposits in the eastern Aleutian Islands that record a local subduction zone earthquake. The overlapping modelled ages for tsunami deposits at the study sites support a plausible correlation with an eastern Aleutian earthquake source for a large prehistoric tsunami in the Hawaiian Islands.

At the eastern end of the 1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska, USA, moment magnitude 8.6 earthquake rupture, Driftwood Bay (Umnak Island) and Stardust Bay (Sedanka Island) lie along presently locked and creeping parts of the Aleutian megathrust, respectively, based on satellite geodesy onshore. Both bays, located 200 km apart, face the Aleutian trench and harbor coastal evidence for tsunami inundation in 1957. Here we describe the evidence at Driftwood Bay, including eight sheets of landward-fining, normally-graded marine sand that extend up to 375 m inland and 23 m above mean tide level. Drift logs that corroborate historical accounts of 1957 tsunami runup on Umnak Island's Pacific coast overlie the youngest sand sheet, which Cs-137 activity shows was deposited in the decade before 1963. The older sand sheets probably record tsunamis prior to 1957 because an emergent coastal terrace lacks evidence for storm-wave erosion and overwash since ca. 2 ka. Comparisons of the Driftwood Bay and Stardust Bay tsunami histories suggest that at least twice in the past 1700 years inundation occurred at one site but not the other. In contrast, Bayesian age-depth modeling suggests that the two bays may record five tsunamis like the 1957 tsunami, generated by earthquake ruptures that spanned the presently locked and creeping parts of the Aleutian megathrust. However, serial tsunamis occurring within days to centuries cannot be precluded. Our findings imply 164-257-year recurrence intervals for large eastern Aleutian tsunamis and challenge the notion that creeping parts of the megathrust, inferred from geodesy onshore, pose lower earthquake and tsunami hazards than locked areas.

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 ( M w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.