The existence of time-bound targets for decarbonization of freight transport raises the need for knowledge of the dynamic behavior of the system. However, little is known about the factors that determine these dynamics, conceptually and empirically. We argue that research is needed to allow substantiated claims about the feasibility of decarbonization policies. We propose a transition theory-inspired framing of the problem, which considers the dynamics of new technologies as alternatives to the established markets, institutions and regulations. We review the relevant freight modeling research literature and develop recommendations for research. While the literature does contain a small set of studies that address the dynamic behavior of the freight system, the relevant phenomena are only partially considered and empirical evidence is scant. We recommend the use of a multi-level dynamic perspective, which includes a long-term view beyond the time horizons considered today. Most importantly, new empirical modeling work is needed to develop valid dynamic models of the relevant decisions taken by all freight transport system stakeholders.

The International Maritime Organization has set a target for international shipping of zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. A ship using wind as the main propulsion can reduce fuel consumption by up to 95 %. At the same time, logistics is in the process of a twin transition: a fundamental restructuring through digitalization as well as decarbonization. Shipping is an intermediate part of global supply chain networks, and wind-powered shipping as a part of a sustainable global logistics system can be achieved with current knowledge of ship design and with digital technologies for navigation and emissions reporting that are available or in current development. Wind ships would also develop and strengthen a culture of sustainability in society. They offer a prospect of a transition to sustainable logistics in society, in which the changes are radical, but feasible.

The most important development in shaping the future of logistics is digitalisation, but while digitalisation and decarbonisation are extensively discussed in industry and scientific literature, there are no comprehensive visions of a digitalised, decarbonised logistics system. This chapter addresses the challenges of this transition management process, by framing and illustrating it with quantified scenarios for the future. As a starting point for the autonomous evolution of logistics systems, i.e., without considering politically driven decarbonisation targets, we take the vision of the physical internet. We critically assess this vision with respect to its potential to autonomously bring about the desired levels of decarbonisation. The remaining gap towards targets needs to be actively managed. We develop a transition scenario to complement the physical internet with decarbonisation incentives and assess their combined deployment in the freight system using a quantitative model that simulates transitions in the logistics system. We find that specific combinations of digitalisation and decarbonisation incentives are needed to achieve long-term targets.

In response to growing concerns about the environmental impact of the shipping industry, this study examines the potential impacts of retrofitting on the shipping industry and the barriers and incentives that may affect the adoption of low-emission technologies. The MATISSE-SHIP agent-based model of transitions is extended to include retrofits. The results suggest that retrofitting can lead to a rapid decline in the use of high-sulphur fuel oil, with wind-assisted technology emerging as a competitive and cost-effective option for shipowners.Additionally, retrofitting can accelerate the transition to a diverse and low-carbon portfolio of propulsion technologies. The findings indicate that the success of decarbonization efforts in the shipping industry depends on a range of factors, including reliable supply that affects the accessibility and affordability of alternative fuels. Policymakers should consider these factors when developing policies and incentives to encourage the adoption of low-emission technologies in the shipping industry.

This commentary discusses the growing connections between sustainable tourism research and the sustainability transitions literature. The common ground between sustainability transitions and sustainable tourism starts from the problem definition of unsustainability in tourism and the consequent need for system change. Research into sustainable tourism engages with several areas discussed in the recent sustainability transitions research agenda. These include: understanding radical innovation for sustainability that involves (socio-technical) system level change; the politics and power struggles in transitions processes; organisational and industrial aspects of sustainability transitions; the geography of transitions; and ethical/just transitions. The papers in this special issue also show that evolutionary economic geography (EEG) views on sustainability transitions in tourism are in line with the concepts of innovation and change in the multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions (MLP). This should enable a fruitful interaction between the two fields of sustinability transitions and sustainable touism.

This paper proposes a framework for analysing interactions between socio-technical systems and for identifying their impacts on transition of socio-technical systems. The framework is framework as: interfaces between systems, relationships between systems through their interface, intensity of interactions, impacts of inter-system interactions. The framework is intended to assist in the systematic identification of potential interactions between two systems. This may assist in identifying how the interactions are part of the co-evolutionary process and hence where measures to strengthen interactions can support the transition process. The application of the framework to heat pumps and autonomous vehicles reveals the flexibility of the suggested scheme of analysis for different types of systems.

This paper identifies trends, knowledge and policy analysis needs and possibilities for new modelling for freight transport in the EU. A literature review of developments in freight transport was conducted, together with an online survey and expert interviews. Areas where information and insights are lacking are:

The critical role of blockchain technology has been highlighted in decarbonization and logistics transitions in the literature. Blockchain technology combined with the Smart City paradigm is identified as one of the most important digital technology disruptions and trends of sustainable urban logistics in the future. Unfortunately, none of the current strategic assessment models can evaluate the impact of blockchain technology adoption on the decarbonization pathways in urban logistics. In this study, to assess the impact of blockchain technology adoption on decarbonization goals in urban logistics, we review the literature for the current strategic assessment tools/models, sustainable urban logistics, Smart City paradigm, and blockchain technology application in logistics and decarbonization. We propose a combination of different modelling approaches including the living lab, agent-based models, and specific decision-making algorithms of blockchain technology adoptions in urban logistics and Smart City paradigms to fill the identified gaps in the literature. The main contribution of this study is to identify the research gaps in the analysis of the impact of blockchain on decarbonization in urban logistics.

Road transport accounted for 20% of global total greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, of which 30% come from road freight transport (RFT). Modeling the modern challenges in RFT requires the integration of different freight modeling improvements in, e.g., traffic, demand, and energy modeling. Recent developments in 'Big Data' (i.e., vast quantities of structured and unstructured data) can provide useful information such as individual behaviors and activities in addition to aggregated patterns using conventional datasets. This paper summarizes the state of the art in analyzing Big Data sources concerning RFT by identifying key challenges and the current knowledge gaps. Various challenges, including organizational, privacy, technical expertise, and legal challenges, hinder the access and utilization of Big Data for RFT applications. We note that the environment for sharing data is still in its infancy. Improving access and use of Big Data will require political support to ensure all involved parties that their data will be safe and contribute positively toward a common goal, such as a more sustainable economy. We identify promising areas for future opportunities and research, including data collection and preparation, data analytics and utilization, and applications to support decision-making.

Das Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI forscht interdisziplinär an der Zukunft von Energiesystemen, Rohstoffversorgung und Mobilität. Hierbei nimmt die Beratung von Politik und Unternehmen im Spannungsfeld dieser zukünftig extrem herausfordernden Themenfelder und deren Verknüpfung seit jeher eine zentrale Rolle in der Arbeit des Instituts auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene ein. Durch die Verwerfungen auf den Energie- und Rohstoffmärkten nach der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine wird die Dringlichkeit zukunftsfester Konzepte für die Energieversorgung der Mobilität deutlich sichtbar. Vor diesem Hintergrund bedarf der Beschluss der Ampelkoalition vom 24. März zur Entlastung der Bürger:innen von weiter steigenden Energie- und Spritkosten der Einordnung aus Sicht der Wissenschaft. Auf der Grundlage bestehender Forschungsarbeiten und aktueller Recherchen beleuchtet das Fraunhofer ISI einen möglichen kurzfristigen Beitrag der Verkehrspolitik zur Reduktion von Ölimporten und bezieht Stellung zur Entlastung von Autofahrer:innen bei anhaltend hohen Kraftstoffpreisen.

Although Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is a very prominent model for future passenger transport, ideas on how to offer it are still scarce. As MaaS platforms are currently mostly offered as field trials, they are highly use-case specific. One of the main reasons for seeing only few examples of ???real??? MaaS as a commercial offer is the shortage of business models that could be applied when providing the service. To better understand potential business model configurations for MaaS, we propose a new conceptual framework to develop MaaS business models. We do so by integrating the Business Model Canvas with a morphological approach to compose all relevant factors in one framework. To populate the framework, we draw on a systematic literature review. We use this to generate morphological boxes for each of the nine building blocks of the Business Model Canvas. The framework helps to understand the features of MaaS and how to provide them from an operator's point of view. By discussing interdependencies of different configurations, we also provide a starting point to evaluate MaaS in a structured way and thereby generate implications for managerial practice, also for generating viable MaaS business models.

This chapter addresses the importance of transport innovations for society, as well as success and failure factors of such innovations. As such it introduces the reader to the scope, aims and rational of this multi-disciplinary book. This book aims to help understand success or failure of potential transport innovations, as well as their societal impacts. We define success as the real world implementation of potential transport innovations. The book is limited to complex innovations in which both public and private actors are involved. Next it makes explicit which policy instruments can influence the real world implementation of potential innovations, and it gives an overview of all chapters.

This paper combines stakeholder assessments of potential scenarios for radical decarbonisation in shipping with scenario simulations with the MATISSE-SHIP model. It advances previous scenario work in low carbon shipping by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis in a 'reality' check of transitions scenarios with stakeholders. Stakeholders identified the critical factors covering society, technology, economics, environmental and legislation/policy. The MATISSE-SHIP model applied these factors and assumptions to model the decision process for shipowners in ordering new ships and propulsion technologies. Four scenarios were developed. With strong climate policy, technological growth with power to liquid/gas (PtL/PtG) fuels (e.g. ammonia) and wind technologies come to dominate. In business as usual, continuing emphasis on local air emissions results in the growth of LNG. Weak policies lead to severe impacts of climate change in the medium term. Eventually, cost savings from wind systems and technology development enable alternative fuel technologies to start to develop. If society moves towards sustainable lifestyles, very strong climate mitigation policies lead to a rapid substitution of fossil fuels by PtL/PtG and, in the tanker and bulker sectors, wind.

Bio-based innovations do not evolve independently from each other, but are interrelated and may enjoy synergies, but also compete for resources (i.e. biomass, skills). Therefore, we explore possible transition pathways that distinct bio-based niches could follow during a joint transformation process. We apply the Multi-Level-Perspective’s transition pathways to the four distinct niches of (i) bioplastics, (ii) biolubricants and of biofuels for (iii) road and (iv) aviation. A subsequent scenario exercise that combines possible transitions paths of these niches enables us to explore the special relation between the individual niches and to detect possible synergies or conflicts. The scenarios show that diverse developments between bio-based niches in terms of scale and type of transition in the future are highly plausible. Finally, based on the results we derive conclusions about appropriate governance arrangements for the bioeconomy.

The forward looking analysis of pathways of transformation of sociotechnical systems to sustainability has become a key concern of innovation studies (Geels 2002; Grin, Rotmans, and Schot 2010; Köhler et al. 2019; Rogge, Pfluger, and Geels 2020). This is driven by broad concerns about the major challenges we face as societies and the need for thorough and fast change of systems as opposed to diffusion of individual innovations to fix small-scale problems. The normative claim is that through intelligent, coordinated activity, mankind can cope with existing challenges. To do so, however, it takes an ambition to voluntarily shape and alter the direction of change of socio-technical systems that provide energy, transportation, health and so on.

There is a need for concepts and methods to develop generic insights across cases in transitions studies and to analyse transformational system in policy. This paper identifies dimensions for a system level analysis and illustrates their application to compare cases and identify possible entry points for policy. System dimensions are grouped into the function of the socio-technical system, its characteristics, the context and its agency. Transformation dimensions address drivers and barriers, politics and dynamics of the system. The illustrations for German bioeconomy and sustainable mobility in the Netherlands both indicate directionality failures and contested policy goals. This results in reflexivity failures in the German bioeconomy, because clear goals are not set, impeding the monitoring of progress. In contrast, mobility initiatives in the Netherlands are constantly adapting to moving targets. Governance structures facilitating system change need to avoid capture by vested interests influencing the routes of change. Both illustrations allow to draw general conclusions as to the value of a structured systems and transformation analysis to support policy analysis and practice.

The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic provides an empirical testing ground for assessing the impact of critical events on societal transitions. Such events are typically seen as exogenous to the transition process, an assumption which is investigated in this paper. Using a qualitative system dynamics modelling approach we conceptualize transition pathways as sets of interacting sequences of events. This enables the analysis of event sequences that constitute the evolving pandemic as impacting on those pathways. We apply this approach to the provision of (auto)mobility and food in the UK. This shows the way in which the pandemic has had a differential effect on ongoing transitions in both systems, sometimes slowing them down, and sometimes accelerating them. In addition, it reveals how it has established new transition pathways. The empirical work further shows how qualitative modelling with system dynamics facilitates an explicit and systematic comparative analysis of transition case studies.