In response to the global increase in biological invasions, the effective management of potentially high-impact invasive alien species requires spatially-explicit tools that provide regional insights to support anticipatory and targeted strategies. This study presents a regional impact risk prediction framework combining habitat suitability modeling (SDM) with impact assessments based on the (S)EICAT protocols. Land use / land cover serves as a common spatial context for both habitat suitability modeling and impact prediction, enabling fine-scale, spatially-explicit projections of risk to inform management across different ecological and socio-economic sectors. We illustrate this framework using Sorghum halepense (Johnsongrass), a globally recognized rhizomatous weed that is rapidly spreading in Central Europe, including Switzerland. A hierarchical SDM, integrating global climate and high-resolution regional land use data, identified the Swiss Plateau, Lake Geneva Basin, the foothills of the Vaud Pre-Alps and the Ticino valley bottoms as highly suitable areas for the species. Land use-specific assessments revealed that main impacts are expected on pastures (toxicity to livestock), arable land (competition, disease transmission), urban green spaces (allergenic effects on human health and high management costs), transportation areas (management costs), and natural environments (competition with and chemical inhibition on native flora, ecosystem structural changes). Regional Impact Risk Classification (RIRC) maps show that different impact mechanisms frequently co-occur geographically, resulting in regions with an increased cumulative impact risk. Integrated and land use–based, the RIRC framework offers a transferable, flexible and scalable tool for planning regional management of biological invasions, in particular for new and emerging invasive species.

Climate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far-reaching consequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics, actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hosts and natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implications for multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance of including climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context of the PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes within the time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk is reduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concerned with how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posed by each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundance of pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. The inclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamic nature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, can make it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately. Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potential effects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paper outlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groups of pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim is to review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change into PRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers on this topic.

As the globalisation of trade increases, so does the spread of arthropod pests, leading to a growing focus on biosecurity preparedness. One approach to this is pre-emptive biological control, involving the importation of classical biological control (CBC) agents for risk assessments and acquiring approval for their release prior to the expected arrival of their target pests. This aims to mitigate the economic and/or environmental consequences of a delayed biological control response to pest invasions. Guidelines to assess the feasibility of pre-emptive biological control for high priority pests were recently developed. Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, is an invasive woodboring pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) in North America, European Russia and Ukraine, and is spreading westward into Europe, threatening the future of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior). We applied the aforementioned guidelines to assess the feasibility of pre-emptive biological control in Europe using four EAB parasitoids, already released in North America for CBC. Three of the parasitoids; Oobius agrili, Spathius galinae, and Tetrastichus planipennisi, were found suitable for pre-emptive biological control. The fourth parasitoid, Spathius agrili, was found to have limited establishment in new environmental conditions, and was therefore deemed less suitable for pre-emptive biological control of EAB in Europe. This assessment can inform scientists and regulators in Europe on the most promising EAB parasitoids that should be considered for pre-emptive applications for importation and risk assessment to acquire pre-approval for immediate release should the target pest subsequently be discovered. In turn, this study contributes to the development of biosecurity preparedness against EAB’s imminent spread throughout Europe.

The evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications.

Aromia bungii Faldermann (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an emerging invasive pest of economically important Prunus species that is native to China, Mongolia, the Russian Far East, Korea, and Vietnam. It was recently introduced to Japan, Germany, and Italy, where it is spreading and damaging crops and ornamental trees. It exhibits an adaptable lifecycle, a high reproductive output, and the larvae live concealed under the bark of infested trees, which are traits that promote its invasiveness. Detection and monitoring of A. bungii currently rely upon visual identification of infested trees that are usually already damaged, which is inefficient and not target-specific. Current control methods rely primarily upon the labour-intensive physical removal of infested trees. Although native parasitoid natural enemies of A. bungii provide control in Chinese orchards, none are appropriate for classical biological control in invaded areas due to biosafety concerns surrounding their broad host ranges. However, entomopathogenic fungi and nematodes may provide viable options for biological control in invaded ranges. Recent advancements in semiochemical baited traps may provide sustainable, target-specific, and efficacious methods to monitor and control A. bungii. There remains much to learn about the biology and control of A. bungii, and continued advancements in the study of sustainable control tools are needed for the management of this emerging pest.

Non-native invasive arthropod species threaten biodiversity and food security worldwide, resulting in substantial economic, environmental, social and cultural costs. Classical biological control (CBC) is regarded as a cost-effective component of integrated pest management programmes to manage invasive arthropod pests sustainably. However, CBC programmes are traditionally conducted once a pest has established in a new environment, and invariably all research needed to achieve approval to release a biological control agent can take several years. During that time, adverse impacts of the pest accelerate. A pre-emptive biocontrol approach will provide the opportunity to develop CBC for invasive pests before they arrive in the country at risk of introduction and therefore enhance preparedness. A critical aspect of this approach is that risk assessment is carried out in advance of the arrival of the pest. Implementing pre-emptive biocontrol risk assessment means that natural enemies can be selected, screened in containment or abroad and potentially pre-approved prior to a pest establishing in the country at risk, thus improving CBC effectiveness. However, such an approach may not always be feasible. This contribution defines the fundamental prerequisites, principles, and objectives of pre-emptive biocontrol risk assessment. A set of guidelines and a decision framework were developed, which can be used to assess the feasibility of conducting a pre-emptive risk assessment for candidate biological control agents against high-risk arthropod pests.

High spatial and thematic resolution of Land Use/Cover (LU/LC) maps are central for accurate watershed analyses, improved species, and habitat distribution modeling as well as ecosystem services assessment, robust assessments of LU/LC changes, and calculation of indices. Downscaled LU/LC maps for Switzerland were obtained for three time periods by blending two inputs: the Swiss topographic base map at a 1:25,000 scale and the national LU/LC statistics obtained from aerial photointerpretation on a 100 m regular lattice of points. The spatial resolution of the resulting LU/LC map was improved by a factor of 16 to reach a resolution of 25 m, while the thematic resolution was increased from 29 (in the base map) to 62 land use categories. The method combines a simple inverse distance spatial weighting of 36 nearest neighbors' information and an expert system of correspondence between input base map categories and possible output LU/LC types. The developed algorithm, written in Python, reads and writes gridded layers of more than 64 million pixels. Given the size of the analyzed area, a High-Performance Computing (HPC) cluster was used to parallelize the data and the analysis and to obtain results more efficiently. The method presented in this study is a generalizable approach that can be used to downscale different types of geographic information.

As the rate of urbanisation continues to increase, widespread habitat clearing within peri-urban landscapes contributes to significant environmental impacts, including loss of biological diversity. Acoustic recording has recently been identified as an effective tool for monitoring biodiversity and ecosystem health. With increasing pressure from urbanisation, it is critical that spatial and temporal variability in biodiversity is mapped across future development sites to enable sound decision-making and to deliver ecological urban design outcomes. This study used ecoacoustic monitoring to map biodiversity patterns in space and time to identify hot spots and hot moments of biodiversity activity across a peri-urban landscape in south-east Queensland, Australia. In this study, a hot spot represents an increase in acoustic activity at a given spatial location, whereas hot moments represent an increase in acoustic activity at a given time point. An acoustic index (Acoustic Complexity Index, ACI) was used as a proxy for biodiversity and visualised through spatial interpolation. The acoustic data were statistically modelled using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). This approach enabled predictors related to acoustic complexity to be identified, including vegetation and landform. Results of this study have shown that ecoacoustic data can be used to map hot spots and hot moments of biodiversity and support more informed conservation decision-making in future urban planning frameworks, to avoid or mitigate negative impacts on biodiversity.

Cities are investing billions of dollars in climate change adaptation to combat the effects of sea-level rise, temperature extremes, increasingly intense storm events, flooding and water scarcity. Natural ecosystems have enormous potential to contribute to city resilience, and so, actions that rely on this approach could sustain considerable co-benefits for biodiversity. In this paper we identify the prevalence of key themes of human adaptation response that could have biodiversity conservation outcomes in cities. We then quantify the area of impact for actions that identify specific targets for greening or green infrastructure that could involve natural ecosystems, providing an indicator of potential co-benefits to biodiversity. We then extrapolate to explore the total area of land that could benefit from catchment management approaches, the area of waterways that could benefit from nature-based improvement of these spaces, and finally the number of threatened species that could benefit across these cities. From 80 city climate adaptation plans analysed, we found that urban greening plays a key role in most adaptation strategies, and represents an enormous opportunity for biodiversity conservation, given the diversity of animal and plant species in urban environments. We show that the ranges of at least 270 threatened species overlap with the area covered by just 58 city adaptation plans, including watershed catchments totalling over 28 million km(2). However, an analysis of 80 city adaptation plans (of a total 151 found globally) shows that this opportunity is being missed. Just 18% of the plans assessed contained specific intentions to promote biodiversity. We highlight this missed opportunity, as climate adaptation actions undertaken by cities represent an enormous incipient opportunity for nature conservation. Finally, we encourage planners and city governments to incorporate biological conservation into climate adaption plans, for the mutual benefit of urban societies and their biodiversity.

Australia's northern savannas are one of the few remaining large and mostly intact natural areas on Earth. However, their biodiversity and ecosystem values could be threatened if proposed agricultural development proceeds. Through land‐use change scenarios, we explored trade‐offs and synergies among biodiversity conservation, carbon farming and agriculture production in northern Australia. We found that if all suitable soils were converted to agriculture, habitat at unique recorded locations of three species would disappear and 40 species and vegetation communities could lose more than 50% of their current distributions. Yet, strategically considering agriculture and biodiversity outcomes leads to zoning options that could yield >56,000 km 2 of agricultural development with a significantly lower impact on biodiversity values and carbon farming. Our analysis provides a template for policy‐makers and planners to identify areas of conflict between competing land‐uses, places to protect in advance of impacts, and planning options that balance agricultural and conservation needs.

Understanding climate change impacts on species is vital for correctly estimating their extinction risk and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We perceive four common challenges that hamper conservation planning for species affected by climate change: (i) only considering climate exposure in assessments of vulnerability to climate change, ignoring the two other components of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); (ii) treating climate change as a long-term, gradual threat without recognising that it will change the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes; (iii) treating climate change as a future threat, disregarding current impacts of existing change; and, (iv) focusing on direct impacts of climate change, ignoring its interactions with other threats. We describe the implications of these challenges and urge that establishing management objectives in relation to species' vulnerability is crucial for choosing effective and efficient conservation action.

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one-sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost-effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost-effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision-making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species' vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia's threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species.

Nearly half of 200 Australian species are threatened by climate change, according to our research published today in PLOS ONE. Climate change is one of the major contributors to global biodiversity loss, and plant and animal species can be affected by climate change in different ways. Some may be directly affected by sea level rise or snow melt, whereas some may lose a pollinator or prey species that they rely on. Species that cannot move to more suitable habitats, or who have no suitable habitat left, risk becoming extinct. Understanding how each of our species is affected by climate change means we can help them survive it...

Australia’s Lake Eyre is perhaps best known as the continent’s largest lake, and for the rare floods that bring the desert to life. But Lake Eyre is much more than a lake. Taking into account the rivers that drain into it and where they come from, the Lake Eyre Basin is one of largest inland draining systems in the world, the size of Germany, France and Italy combined. It is home to many natural wonders, such as Uluru, and many species of threatened wildlife. It is also threatened by invasive animals and plants, and climate change. How can we best protect the basin, given finite funds? In two studies (published this week in Global Change Biology and the Journal of Applied Ecology) and in two CSIRO reports we show that managing feral pigs is one of the most effective ways to ensure the basin remains healthy in the future.

AimClimate warming and land use change represent a major challenge for both species and conservation managers. Temporally and spatially explicit projections of the future distribution of species have been extensively developed to support decision-making in conservation. The aim of this study was to move beyond the simple projections of likely impacts of global change to identify the most vulnerable species. We suggest an original vulnerability index that integrates estimations of projected range change and different proxies of species resilience in a quantitative way. The proposed index is generally applicable, completely quantitative, and it allows ranking species so as to prioritize conservation actions.LocationWe illustrate the applicability of the vulnerability index using breeding birds in Switzerland as an example of conservation target.MethodsThe vulnerability index relies on five indicators quantifying different aspects of the projected change in distributional area, the reservoirs available for the species and their recent population trend. Species distribution was modelled using three different techniques (GAM, MARS and BRT) and then projected for 2050 and 2100 according to two different IPCC scenarios of climate change coupled with two regional land use scenarios to represent different magnitudes of the stressors and the range of possible outcomes.ResultsAccording to the different contributions of the base indicators, different patterns of vulnerability can be distinguished. In Switzerland, breeding birds inhabiting coniferous woodlands, alpine habitats and wetlands have significantly higher vulnerability to climate and land use change than species in other habitats.Main conclusionsThe proposed vulnerability index represents an early warning system as it identifies species that are currently not threatened, but are very likely to become so. As such, it complements the assessment of risk of species' extinction based on the Red List and on their international importance.

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and considers some perspectives for the future at the national level.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.