We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20,400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race-and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies. Zero-sum thinking can be traced back to the experiences of both the individual and their ancestors, encompassing factors such as the degree of intergenerational upward mobility they experienced, whether they immigrated to the United States or lived in a location with more immigrants, and whether they were enslaved or lived in a location with more enslavement.

We study the effect of conflict-induced displacement on human capital and occupational shifts, focusing on the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), during which millions of civilians were forced to flee to the countryside, cities, and neighboring countries. Reconstructing the wartime mobility histories of the surviving population, we examine the consequences of multiple displacement trajectories in a unified framework. First, we characterize the education and sectoral employment of the universe of (non-)displaced. Second, we exploit differences in relocation trajectories among extended kin members during their schooling years. Displacement is associated with significant gains in education. Third, using a movers design, we show that minors displaced earlier to better districts experienced an increase in educational attainment. Focusing on moves during the intensification of the war and when comparing members of the same household, regional childhood exposure effects remain strong, whereas spatial sorting becomes negligible. Fourth, we jointly estimate place-based, spatial sorting, and uprootedness effects, showing that all forces are at play. Fifth, a small survey in Mozambique's largest northern city reveals long-term effects: internally displaced people report higher education than their siblings who stayed behind but lower social capital and worse mental health relative to locals. Our findings demonstrate that displacement shocks can foster human capital accumulation, even in very low-income settings, albeit at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas.

Youth unemployment remains extremely high throughout the developing world, at times coexisting with unmet demand for labour and high job turnover. We examine one possible explanation for this: spatial mismatches between jobs and job-seekers combined with high search costs can lead young job-seekers to have overly optimistic beliefs about their employment prospects. As a result, job-seekers under-search but also hold out for better jobs. Through a field experiment we find that reducing search costs through transport subsidies leads job-seekers to search more intensively and to adjust their beliefs in line with their search experience. When jobs fail to materialize immediately, job-seekers who believed that dropping CVs at prospective employers in the city centre was an effective search strategy become more impatient, they lower their reservation wage and they settle for low-paying jobs closer to home. This does not increase their likelihood of being employed, since nearby jobs are also scarce. These findings underscore both the importance and the complexity of the interaction between search costs and beliefs, and how they can lead to spatial and occupational mistargeting in the job search.

We examine the impact of providing access to mobile savings accounts and improving financial management skills on the performance of microenterprises in Mozambique. The effects are highly heterogeneous: Combining both types of support is associated with a large increase in both short- and long-term firm profits and in financial security for female microentrepreneurs. This allowed female-headed microenterprises, particularly those with a higher level of profits at baseline, to close the gender profit gap in performance and skills relative to their male counterparts. The main drivers of improved business performance are improved financial management practices (bookkeeping), an increase in accessible savings, and reduced transfers to friends and relatives. Providing access to mobile money as a tool to save and manage finances also increases long-term profits of female microentrepreneurs, particularly for those with higher profits at baseline. However, neither treatment has any impact on male-led enterprises. Uncovering this heterogeneity in impact across different types of microenterprises can help improve the targeting of these interventions in the future. This paper was accepted by Yan Chen, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: This work was supported by the International Growth Centre and the U.S. Agency for International Development [Grant AIO-OAA-F-12-00015]. Supplemental Material: The data files and Online Appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4579 .

We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on human capital looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977− 1992), during which more than four million civilians fled to the countryside, to cities, and to refugee camps and settlements in neighboring countries. First, we present descriptive patterns linking education and sectoral employment to the various displacement trajectories using the full population census. Second, we compare siblings separated during the war, using those who stayed behind as a counterfactual to one’s displacement path. Displacement is associated with increased educational investments, with the largest effects experienced by rural-born children escaping to urban areas. Third, we jointly estimate place-based and uprootedness effects. Both are present, with displacement increasing education and decreasing attachment to agriculture by the same rate as being exposed to an environment approximately one standard deviation more developed than one’s birthplace. Fourth, we conduct a survey in Mozambique’s largest Northern city, whose population doubled during the civil war. Those displaced to the city have significantly higher education than their siblings who remained in the countryside and they converged to the levels of schooling of non-mover urban born individuals. However, those displaced exhibit significantly lower social/civic capital and have worse mental health, even three decades after the war ended. These findings reveal that displacement shocks can trigger human capital investments, breaking links with subsistence agriculture, but at the cost of long lasting, social, and psychological traumas. ∗Universidad de Montevideo; Prudencio de Pena 2440, Montevideo 11600, Uruguay. gchiovelli@um.edu.uy. Web: https://sites.google.com/view/giorgiochiovelli/ †Brown University, Economics Department, Robinson Hall 64 Waterman Street, Providence, RI, USA. smichalo@brown.edu. Web: https://sites.google.com/site/steliosecon/ ‡London Business School, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4SA, United Kingdom. eliasp@london.edu. Web: https://sites.google.com/site/papaioannouelias/ §London School of Economics and Political Science. s.sequeira@lse.ac.uk. Web: https://sites.google. com/view/sandramgsequeira, corresponding author We thank Pinjas Albagli, Gabriela Deschamps, Andres Fajardo-Ramirez, Guy Pincus, Michelle Rao, Vivian Liu and especially Tarek Abdo and Matthew OBrien for great research assistance. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the International Growth Center and Sandra Sequeira acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council, Starting Grant (REFUGEDEV). We thank seminar and conference participants at Harvard, Trinity, Jerusalem, Brown, LSE, Universidad de Montevideo, Universidad de los Andes, BREAD, ECONtribute workshop, EBRD-Kings Conference on Migration, University of Padova, and the CEPR Macroeconomics and Growth Programme Meeting.

This paper examines how national identity affects day-to-day economic behavior. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a shock to the salience of identity and measure its impact on consumer choices in the UK, between British and EU grocery products. Drawing from a unique panel dataset with 12 million shoppers, we find that the referendum is associated with an increase in consumption of UK products (6%) and a reduction in demand for EU products (13%). Changes in consumption are driven by identity being top of mind: consumption of UK products is up to 7% higher during intense media discussions on Brexit, particularly during discussions on the politics of regaining sovereignty relative to the economic or social issues associated with Brexit. These findings underscore the importance of national identity in shaping routine economic decisions, and the mediating role that political events and the media can play by keeping identity top of mind.

We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.

Youth unemployment remains high throughout the developing world, at times coexisting with unmet demand for labor and high job turnover. This paper examines one possible explanation: young job seekers who live far from the city centres where jobs are located, over-estimate their employment prospects and underestimate actual commuting costs. Increasing access and exposure to the wider labor market leads job seekers to adjust beliefs and accept jobs closer to home. These findings underscore the importance of supply-side information frictions and how they can lead to spatial and occupational mistargeting in the job search.

Background Antenatal care (ANC) provides a range of critical health services during pregnancy that can improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes. In Mozambique, only half of women receive four or more ANC visits, which are provided for free at public health centers by maternal and child health (MCH) nurses. Waiting time has been shown to contribute to negative client experiences, which may be a driver of low maternity care utilization. A recent pilot study of a program to schedule ANC visits demonstrated that scheduling care reduces waiting time and results in higher rates of complete ANC. This study aims to explore client experiences with waiting time for ANC in standard practice and care and after the introduction of appointment scheduling. Methods This study uses a series of qualitative interviews to unpack client experiences with ANC waiting time with and without scheduled care, in order to better understand the impact of waiting time on client experiences. Thirty-eight interviews were collected in May to June 2017 at three pilot study clinics in southern Mozambique, with a focus on two paired intervention and comparison facilities sharing similar facility characteristics. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis methods using NVivo software. Results Clients described strong motivations to seek ANC, pointing to the need to address convenience of care, and highlighted direct and indirect costs of seeking care that were exacerbated by long waiting times. Direct costs include time and transport costs of going to the clinic, while indirect costs include being unable to fulfill household and work obligations. Other barriers to complete ANC utilization of four or more visits include transport costs, negative provider experiences, and delayed ANC initiation, which limit the potential number of clinic contacts. Conclusions Findings demonstrate that the scheduling intervention improves the client experience of seeking care by allowing women to both seek ANC and fulfill other productive obligations. Innovation in healthcare delivery should consider adapting models that minimize waiting times.

Background Poor patient experience, including long waiting time, is a potential reason for low healthcare utilisation. In this study, we evaluate the impact of appointment scheduling on waiting time and utilisation of antenatal care. Methods We implemented a pilot study in Mozambique introducing appointment scheduling to three maternity clinics, with a fourth facility used as a comparison. The intervention provided women with a return date and time for their next antenatal care visit. Waiting times and antenatal care utilisation data were collected in all study facilities. We assessed the effect of changing from first come, first served to scheduled antenatal care visits on waiting time and complete antenatal care (≥4 visits during pregnancy). Our primary analysis compared treatment facilities over time; in addition, we compared the treatment and comparison facilities using difference in differences. Results We collected waiting time data for antenatal care from 6918 women, and antenatal care attendance over the course of pregnancy from 8385 women. Scheduling appointments reduced waiting time for antenatal care in treatment facilities by 100 min (95% CI −107.2 to -92.9) compared with baseline. Using administrative records, we found that exposure to the scheduling intervention during pregnancy was associated with an approximately 16 percentage point increase in receipt of four or more antenatal care visits during pregnancy. Conclusions Relatively simple improvements in the organisation of care that reduce waiting time may increase utilisation of healthcare during pregnancy. A larger scale study is needed to provide information about whether appointment scheduling can be sustained over time. Trial registration number NCT02938936.

The limitations of Randomized Controlled Trials as a research method have been well documented. Here we highlight one overlooked benefit of experimental research: a well-designed RCT requires in-depth knowledge of local customs and context, which brings researchers to the field and creates opportunities for collaboration across disciplines, between academics and policymakers, and among Northern and Southern researchers. Such collaborations have the potential to greatly enrich development scholarship. We illustrate our point with data from recent published papers in development economics, and conclude that RCTs, as one tool among many, can help promote more interdisciplinary, inclusive, and diverse quantitative development research.

We study the effects of European immigration to the United States during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) on economic prosperity today. We exploit variation in the extent of immigration across counties arising from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and the gradual expansion of the railway network across the United States. We find that locations with more historical immigration today have higher incomes, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment. The long-run effects appear to arise from the persistence of sizeable short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.

Though a highly emotive issue, the debates surrounding immigration and its impact have focused on the short-term. In assessing the longer-term effects of immigration by considering America’s Age of Mass Migration, however, Sandra Sequeira, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian find that the long-run benefits of immigration can be sizeable, and suggest that despite the short-term social costs and tensions of increased immigration, we should consider the long-run benefits of immigration in policy debates.

This paper tests two specific mechanisms through which individuals can form expectations about returns to investments in education: recognition for schooling performance, and exposure to successful students through family or social networks. Using a regression discontinuity design, we study the impact of two fellowship programs recognizing educational performance in secondary schools in India. We find that the fellowship award is associated with a significant increase in the perceived value of education, by both increasing the perceived mean of earnings (0.74 standard deviations (SD)) and decreasing the perceived variance in earnings (1.03 SD) associated with additional years of schooling. The effects spill over only selectively to social and family networks. Peers exposed to successful students do not update their beliefs but parents of fellows report higher perceived returns to education. Peers of fellows are however more informed about fellowship opportunities and report a higher intention to apply for the fellowship, thus contributing to the persistence of the potential impact of the fellowship across different cohorts.

This paper investigates the impact of investments in transport infrastructure on firm performance. Using an original survey of approximately 900 firms in Southern Africa, I estimate the impact of access to a railway on firm sales. Exposure to railway infrastructure is instrumented by geographic proximity to the historical layout of a railway line destroyed by a civil war in the 1980s and rebuilt in 2008. To further account for historical advantages of regions served by the original railway I adopt a di↵erences-in-di↵erences approach that compares the performance of firms in the catchment area of the new railroad to that of firms in other historical transport corridors that planned to rebuild their railroads, but have not yet executed them. Overall, I find limited firm-level gains from access to the railway. I provide suggestive evidence on how the absence of impact may be driven by monopolistic practices of railway parastatals managing access to rail services. These findings highlight important policy complementarities between investments in “hard” and “soft” railway infrastructure.

This paper exploits quasi-experimental variation in tariffs in southern Africa to estimate trade elasticities. Traded quantities respond only weakly to a 30 percent reduction in the average nominal tariff rate. Trade flow data combined with primary data on firm behavior and bribe payments suggest that corruption is a potential explanation for the observed low elasticities. In contexts of pervasive corruption, even small bribes can significantly reduce tariffs, making tariff liberalization schemes less likely to affect the extensive and the intensive margins of firms' import behavior. The tariff liberalization scheme is, however, still associated with improved incentives to accurately report quantities of imported goods, and with a significant reduction in bribe transfers from importers to public officials.

We provide new evidence on consumer demand for ethical products from experiments conducted in a U.S. grocery store chain. We find that sales of the two most popular coffees rose by almost 10% when they carried a Fair Trade label as compared to a generic placebo label. Demand for the higher-priced coffee remained steady when its price was raised by 8%, but demand for the lower-priced coffee was elastic: a 9% price increase led to a 30% decline in sales. While consumers attach value to ethical sourcing, there is significant heterogeneity in willingness to pay for it.