There has been remarkable progress over the past decade in establishing finite-sample, non-asymptotic bounds on recovering unknown system parameters from observed system behavior. Surprisingly, however, we show that the current state-of-the-art bounds do not accurately capture the statistical complexity of system identification, even in the most fundamental setting of estimating a discrete-time linear dynamical system (LDS) via ordinary least-squares regression (OLS). Specifically, we utilize asymptotic normality to identify classes of problem instances for which current bounds overstate the squared parameter error, in both spectral and Frobenius norm, by a factor of the state-dimension of the system. Informed by this discrepancy, we then sharpen the OLS parameter error bounds via a novel second-order decomposition of the parameter error, where crucially the lower-order term is a matrix-valued martingale that we show correctly captures the CLT scaling. From our analysis we obtain finite-sample bounds for both (i) stable systems and (ii) the many-trajectories setting that match the instance-specific optimal rates up to constant factors in Frobenius norm, and polylogarithmic state-dimension factors in spectral norm.

Self-supervised pre-training, where large corpora of unlabeled data are used to learn representations for downstream fine-tuning, has become a cornerstone of modern machine learning. While a growing body of theoretical work has begun to analyze this paradigm, existing bounds leave open the question of how sharp the current rates are, and whether they accurately capture the complex interaction between pre-training and fine-tuning. In this paper, we address this gap by developing an asymptotic theory of pre-training via two-stage M-estimation. A key challenge is that the pre-training estimator is often identifiable only up to a group symmetry, a feature common in representation learning that requires careful treatment. We address this issue using tools from Riemannian geometry to study the intrinsic parameters of the pre-training representation, which we link with the downstream predictor through a notion of orbit-invariance, precisely characterizing the limiting distribution of the downstream test risk. We apply our main result to several case studies, including spectral pre-training, factor models, and Gaussian mixture models, and obtain substantial improvements in problem-specific factors over prior art when applicable.

A central challenge in large language model (LLM) editing is capability preservation: methods that successfully change targeted behavior can quietly game the editing proxy and corrupt general capabilities, producing degenerate behaviors reminiscent of proxy/reward hacking. We present CrispEdit, a scalable and principled second-order editing algorithm that treats capability preservation as an explicit constraint, unifying and generalizing several existing editing approaches. CrispEdit formulates editing as constrained optimization and enforces the constraint by projecting edit updates onto the low-curvature subspace of the capability-loss landscape. At the crux of CrispEdit is expressing capability constraint via Bregman divergence, whose quadratic form yields the Gauss–Newton Hessian exactly and even when the base model is not trained to convergence. We make this second-order procedure efficient at the LLM scale using Kronecker-factored approximate curvature (K-FAC) and a novel matrix-free projector that exploits Kronecker structure to avoid constructing massive projection matrices. Across standard model-editing benchmarks, CrispEdit achieves high edit success while keeping capability degradation below 1% on average across datasets, significantly improving over prior editors.

General-purpose robot reward models are typically trained to predict absolute task progress from expert demonstrations, providing only local, frame-level supervision. While effective for expert demonstrations, this paradigm scales poorly to large-scale robotics datasets where failed and suboptimal trajectories are abundant and assigning dense progress labels is ambiguous. We introduce Robometer, a scalable reward modeling framework that combines intra-trajectory progress supervision with inter-trajectory preference supervision. Robometer is trained with a dual objective: a frame-level progress loss that anchors reward magnitude on expert data, and a trajectory-comparison preference loss that imposes global ordering constraints across trajectories of the same task, enabling effective learning from both real and augmented failed trajectories. To support this formulation at scale, we curate RBM-1M, a reward-learning dataset comprising over one million trajectories spanning diverse robot embodiments and tasks, including substantial suboptimal and failure data. Across benchmarks and real-world evaluations, Robometer learns more generalizable reward functions than prior methods and improves robot learning performance across a diverse set of downstream applications. Code, model weights, and videos at https://robometer.github.io/.

Backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE)-based deep learning methods provide an alternative to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for solving high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), offering potential algorithmic advantages in settings such as stochastic optimal control, where the PDEs of interest are tied to an underlying dynamical system. However, standard BSDE-based solvers have empirically been shown to underperform relative to PINNs in the literature. In this paper, we identify the root cause of this performance gap as a discretization bias introduced by the standard Euler-Maruyama (EM) integration scheme applied to one-step self-consistency BSDE losses, which shifts the optimization landscape off target. We find that this bias cannot be satisfactorily addressed through finer step-sizes or multi-step self-consistency losses. To properly handle this issue, we propose a Stratonovich-based BSDE formulation, which we implement with stochastic Heun integration. We show that our proposed approach completely eliminates the bias issues faced by EM integration. Furthermore, our empirical results show that our Heun-based BSDE method consistently outperforms EM-based variants and achieves competitive results with PINNs across multiple high-dimensional benchmarks. Our findings highlight the critical role of integration schemes in BSDE-based PDE solvers, an algorithmic detail that has received little attention thus far in the literature.

A fundamental challenge in learning an unknown dynamical system is to reduce model uncertainty by making measurements while maintaining safety. In this work, we formulate a mathematical definition of what it means to safely learn a dynamical system by sequentially deciding where to initialize the next trajectory. In our framework, the state of the system is required to stay within a safety region for a horizon of $T$ time steps under the action of all dynamical systems that (i) belong to a given initial uncertainty set, and (ii) are consistent with the information gathered so far. For our first set of results, we consider the setting of safely learning a linear dynamical system involving $n$ states. For the case $T=1$, we present a linear programming-based algorithm that either safely recovers the true dynamics from at most $n$ trajectories, or certifies that safe learning is impossible. For $T=2$, we give a semidefinite representation of the set of safe initial conditions and show that $\lceil n/2 \rceil$ trajectories generically suffice for safe learning. Finally, for $T = \infty$, we provide semidefinite representable inner approximations of the set of safe initial conditions and show that one trajectory generically suffices for safe learning. Our second set of results concerns the problem of safely learning a general class of nonlinear dynamical systems. For the case $T=1$, we give a second-order cone programming based representation of the set of safe initial conditions. For $T=\infty$, we provide semidefinite representable inner approximations to the set of safe initial conditions. We show how one can safely collect trajectories and fit a polynomial model of the nonlinear dynamics that is consistent with the initial uncertainty set and best agrees with the observations.

Diffusion-based generative models provide a powerful framework for learning to sample from a complex target distribution. The remarkable empirical success of these models applied to high-dimensional signals, including images and video, stands in stark contrast to classical results highlighting the curse of dimensionality for distribution recovery. In this work, we take a step towards understanding this gap through a careful analysis of learning diffusion models over the Barron space of single layer neural networks. In particular, we show that these shallow models provably adapt to simple forms of low dimensional structure, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality. We combine our results with recent analyses of sampling with diffusion models to provide an end-to-end sample complexity bound for learning to sample from structured distributions. Importantly, our results do not require specialized architectures tailored to particular latent structures, and instead rely on the low-index structure of the Barron space to adapt to the underlying distribution.

Learning from temporally-correlated data is a core facet of modern machine learning. Yet our understanding of sequential learning remains incomplete, particularly in the multi-trajectory setting where data consists of many independent realizations of a time-indexed stochastic process. This important regime both reflects modern training pipelines such as for large foundation models, and offers the potential for learning without the typical mixing assumptions made in the single-trajectory case. However, instance-optimal bounds are known only for least-squares regression with dependent covariates; for more general models or loss functions, the only broadly applicable guarantees result from a reduction to either i.i.d. learning, with effective sample size scaling only in the number of trajectories, or an existing single-trajectory result when each individual trajectory mixes, with effective sample size scaling as the full data budget deflated by the mixing-time. In this work, we significantly broaden the scope of instance-optimal rates in multi-trajectory settings via the Hellinger localization framework, a general approach for maximum likelihood estimation. Our method proceeds by first controlling the squared Hellinger distance at the path-measure level via a reduction to i.i.d. learning, followed by localization as a quadratic form in parameter space weighted by the trajectory Fisher information. This yields instance-optimal bounds that scale with the full data budget under a broad set of conditions. We instantiate our framework across four diverse case studies: a simple mixture of Markov chains, dependent linear regression under non-Gaussian noise, generalized linear models with non-monotonic activations, and linear-attention sequence models. In all cases, our bounds nearly match the instance-optimal rates from asymptotic normality, substantially improving over standard reductions.

A crucial design decision for any robot learning pipeline is the choice of policy representation: what type of model should be used to generate the next set of robot actions? Owing to the inherent multi-modal nature of many robotic tasks, combined with the recent successes in generative modeling, researchers have turned to state-of-the-art probabilistic models such as diffusion models for policy representation. In this work, we revisit the choice of energy-based models (EBM) as a policy class. We show that the prevailing folklore -- that energy models in high dimensional continuous spaces are impractical to train -- is false. We develop a practical training objective and algorithm for energy models which combines several key ingredients: (i) ranking noise contrastive estimation (R-NCE), (ii) learnable negative samplers, and (iii) non-adversarial joint training. We prove that our proposed objective function is asymptotically consistent and quantify its limiting variance. On the other hand, we show that the Implicit Behavior Cloning (IBC) objective is actually biased even at the population level, providing a mathematical explanation for the poor performance of IBC trained energy policies in several independent follow-up works. We further extend our algorithm to learn a continuous stochastic process that bridges noise and data, modeling this process with a family of EBMs indexed by scale variable. In doing so, we demonstrate that the core idea behind recent progress in generative modeling is actually compatible with EBMs. Altogether, our proposed training algorithms enable us to train energy-based models as policies which compete with -- and even outperform -- diffusion models and other state-of-the-art approaches in several challenging multi-modal benchmarks: obstacle avoidance path planning and contact-rich block pushing.

Reachability analysis is an important method in providing safety guarantees for systems with unknown or uncertain dynamics. Due to the computational intractability of exact reachability analysis for general nonlinear, high-dimensional systems, recent work has focused on the use of probabilistic methods for computing approximate reachable sets. In this work, we advocate for the use of a general purpose, practical, and sharp method for data-driven reachability: the holdout method. Despite the simplicity of the holdout method, we show -- on several numerical examples including scenario-based reach tubes -- that the resulting probabilistic bounds are substantially sharper and require fewer samples than existing methods for data-driven reachability. Furthermore, we complement our work with a discussion on the necessity of probabilistic reachability bounds. We argue that any method that attempts to de-randomize the bounds, by converting the guarantees to hold deterministically, requires (a) an exponential in state-dimension amount of samples to achieve non-vacuous guarantees, and (b) extra assumptions on the dynamics.

We consider the problem of safely exploring a static and unknown environment while learning valid control barrier functions (CBFs) from sensor data. Existing works either assume known environments, target specific dynamics models, or use a-priori valid CBFs, and thus provide limited safety guarantees for general control-affine systems during exploration. We present a method for safely exploring by incrementally composing a global CBF from local CBFs. The challenge here is that local CBFs may not have well-defined end behavior outside their training domain, i.e. local CBFs may be positive (indicating safety) in regions where no training data is available. We show that well-defined end behavior can be obtained when local CBFs are parameterized by compactly-supported radial basis functions. For learning local CBFs, we collect sensor data, e.g. LiDAR capturing obstacles in the environment, and augment it with simulated data from a safe oracle controller. Our work complements recent efforts to learn CBFs from safe demonstrations, where learned safe sets are limited to their training domains, by demonstrating how to grow the safe set over time as more data becomes available. We evaluate our approach on two simulated systems, where our method successfully explores an unknown environment while maintaining safety throughout the entire execution.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) built on Large Language Models (LLMs) are being used to approach complex problems and can surpass single model inference. However, their success hinges on navigating a fundamental cognitive tension: the need to balance broad, divergent exploration of the solution space with a principled, convergent synthesis to the optimal solution. Existing paradigms often struggle to manage this duality, leading to premature consensus, error propagation, and a critical credit assignment problem that fails to distinguish between genuine reasoning and superficially plausible arguments. To resolve this core challenge, we propose the Multi-Agent Exploration-Synthesis framework Through Role Orchestration (Maestro), a principled paradigm for collaboration that structurally decouples these cognitive modes. Maestro uses a collective of parallel Execution Agents for diverse exploration and a specialized Central Agent for convergent, evaluative synthesis. To operationalize this critical synthesis phase, we introduce Conditional Listwise Policy Optimization (CLPO), a reinforcement learning objective that disentangles signals for strategic decisions and tactical rationales. By combining decision-focused policy gradients with a list-wise ranking loss over justifications, CLPO achieves clean credit assignment and stronger comparative supervision. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and general problem-solving benchmarks demonstrate that Maestro, coupled with CLPO, consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art multi-agent approaches, delivering absolute accuracy gains of 6

We initiate a formal study on the use of low-dimensional latent representations of dynamical systems for verifiable control synthesis. Our main goal is to enable the application of verification techniques -- such as Lyapunov or barrier functions -- that might otherwise be computationally prohibitive when applied directly to the full state representation. Towards this goal, we first provide dynamics-aware approximate conjugacy conditions which formalize the notion of reconstruction error necessary for systems analysis. We then utilize our conjugacy conditions to transfer the stability and invariance guarantees of a latent certificate function (e.g., a Lyapunov or barrier function) for a latent space controller back to the original system. Importantly, our analysis contains several important implications for learning latent spaces and dynamics, by highlighting the necessary geometric properties which need to be preserved by the latent space, in addition to providing concrete loss functions for dynamics reconstruction that are directly related to control design. We conclude by demonstrating the applicability of our theory to two case studies: (1) stabilization of a cartpole system, and (2) collision avoidance for a two vehicle system.

We initiate a study of supervised learning from many independent sequences ("trajectories") of non-independent covariates, reflecting tasks in sequence modeling, control, and reinforcement learning. Conceptually, our multi-trajectory setup sits between two traditional settings in statistical learning theory: learning from independent examples and learning from a single auto-correlated sequence. Our conditions for efficient learning generalize the former setting--trajectories must be non-degenerate in ways that extend standard requirements for independent examples. Notably, we do not require that trajectories be ergodic, long, nor strictly stable. For linear least-squares regression, given $n$-dimensional examples produced by $m$ trajectories, each of length $T$, we observe a notable change in statistical efficiency as the number of trajectories increases from a few (namely $m \lesssim n$) to many (namely $m \gtrsim n$). Specifically, we establish that the worst-case error rate of this problem is $\Theta(n / m T)$ whenever $m \gtrsim n$. Meanwhile, when $m \lesssim n$, we establish a (sharp) lower bound of $\Omega(n^2 / m^2 T)$ on the worst-case error rate, realized by a simple, marginally unstable linear dynamical system. A key upshot is that, in domains where trajectories regularly reset, the error rate eventually behaves as if all of the examples were independent, drawn from their marginals. As a corollary of our analysis, we also improve guarantees for the linear system identification problem.

In this work, we study statistical learning with dependent data and square loss in a hypothesis class with tail decay in Orlicz space: $\mathscr{F}\subset L_{\Psi_p}$. Our inquiry is motivated by the search for a sharp noise interaction term, or variance proxy, in learning with dependent (e.g. $\beta$-mixing) data. Typical non-asymptotic results exhibit variance proxies that are deflated *multiplicatively* in the mixing time of the underlying covariates process. We show that whenever the topologies of $L^2$ and $\Psi_p$ are comparable on our hypothesis class $\mathscr{F}$, the empirical risk minimizer achieves a rate that only depends on the complexity of the class and second order statistics in its leading term. We refer to this as a *near mixing-free rate*, since direct dependence on mixing is relegated to an additive higher order term. Our approach, reliant on mixed tail generic chaining, allows us to obtain sharp, instance-optimal rates. Examples that satisfy our framework include for instance sub-Gaussian linear regression and bounded smoothness classes.

Inspired by the success of imitation and inverse reinforcement learning in replicating expert behavior through optimal control, we propose a learning based approach to safe controller synthesis based on control barrier functions (CBFs). We consider the setting of a known nonlinear control affine dynamical system and assume that we have access to safe trajectories generated by an expert - a practical example of such a setting would be a kinematic model of a self-driving vehicle with safe trajectories (e.g. trajectories that avoid collisions with obstacles in the environment) generated by a human driver. We then propose and analyze an optimization-based approach to learning a CBF that enjoys provable safety guarantees under suitable Lipschitz smoothness assumptions on the underlying dynamical system. A strength of our approach is that it is agnostic to the parameterization used to represent the CBF, assuming only that the Lipschitz constant of such functions can be efficiently bounded. Furthermore, if the CBF parameterization is convex, then under mild assumptions, so is our learning process. We end with extensive numerical evaluations of our results on both planar and realistic examples, using both random feature and deep neural network parameterizations of the CBF. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that learn provably safe control barrier functions from data.

A classic result by Carbery and Wright states that a polynomial of Gaussian random variables exhibits anti-concentration in the following sense: for any degree $d$ polynomial $f$, one has the estimate $P( |f(x)| \leq \varepsilon \cdot E|f(x)| ) \leq O(1) \cdot d \varepsilon^{1/d}$, where the probability is over $x$ drawn from an isotropic Gaussian distribution. In this note, we give an elementary proof of this result for the special case when $f$ is a degree two non-negative polynomial.

We study representation learning for efficient imitation learning over linear systems. In particular, we consider a setting where learning is split into two phases: (a) a pre-training step where a shared $k$-dimensional representation is learned from $H$ source policies, and (b) a target policy fine-tuning step where the learned representation is used to parameterize the policy class. We find that the imitation gap over trajectories generated by the learned target policy is bounded by $\tilde{O}\left( \frac{k n_x}{HN_{\mathrm{shared}}} + \frac{k n_u}{N_{\mathrm{target}}}\right)$, where $n_x > k$ is the state dimension, $n_u$ is the input dimension, $N_{\mathrm{shared}}$ denotes the total amount of data collected for each policy during representation learning, and $N_{\mathrm{target}}$ is the amount of target task data. This result formalizes the intuition that aggregating data across related tasks to learn a representation can significantly improve the sample efficiency of learning a target task. The trends suggested by this bound are corroborated in simulation.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a wide range of promising capabilities -- from step-by-step planning to commonsense reasoning -- that may provide utility for robots, but remain prone to confidently hallucinated predictions. In this work, we present KnowNo, which is a framework for measuring and aligning the uncertainty of LLM-based planners such that they know when they don't know and ask for help when needed. KnowNo builds on the theory of conformal prediction to provide statistical guarantees on task completion while minimizing human help in complex multi-step planning settings. Experiments across a variety of simulated and real robot setups that involve tasks with different modes of ambiguity (e.g., from spatial to numeric uncertainties, from human preferences to Winograd schemas) show that KnowNo performs favorably over modern baselines (which may involve ensembles or extensive prompt tuning) in terms of improving efficiency and autonomy, while providing formal assurances. KnowNo can be used with LLMs out of the box without model-finetuning, and suggests a promising lightweight approach to modeling uncertainty that can complement and scale with the growing capabilities of foundation models. Website: https://robot-help.github.io

We derive upper bounds for random design linear regression with dependent ($\beta$-mixing) data absent any realizability assumptions. In contrast to the strictly realizable martingale noise regime, no sharp \emph{instance-optimal} non-asymptotics are available in the literature. Up to constant factors, our analysis correctly recovers the variance term predicted by the Central Limit Theorem---the noise level of the problem---and thus exhibits graceful degradation as we introduce misspecification. Past a burn-in, our result is sharp in the moderate deviations regime, and in particular does not inflate the leading order term by mixing time factors.