Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures.We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.

This case report is a reflective narrative, documenting the methods used to develop a policy framework for a National Strategy on Climate, Health and Well-being for Australia. The report aims to guide advocates, communities of practice, and governments in developing a comprehensive policy response to climate change and its health impacts.

Integrated assessment of natural and human systems is regarded as a way to facilitate effective governance of complex environmental issues, and engagement of stakeholders is recognised as a key requirement of such an assessment. Place-based ecosystem service analysis is one framework for integrative research on understanding citizen values. By using the lens of place, participants can articulate values and perceptions. Advantages of this framework are particularly relevant in the urban setting, given that the population and functioning of cities create especially high pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity of the surrounding areas. This study reports on a place-based ecosystem service analysis study in Bogota, Colombia. It aimed to identify how urban citizens conceptualise the socio-ecological value of a nearby protected natural area, the Eastern Hills Protected Forest Area. The objective was to generate an integrated understanding of the services the Hills provide to Bogota. The study found that the services of fresh water and habitat provision, biodiversity, carbon sequestration, erosion control and climate and air quality were highly prioritised ecosystem services due to their fundamental importance for the maintenance of human life. The Hills also hold cultural value for Bogotans, such as a sense of belonging and identity, being the natural symbol of Bogota and inspiration for escapism. There is enthusiasm for greater stewardship and conservation of the Hills, and demand for a greater role in decision making. The place-based ecosystem service approach can be developed as a tool for developing an integrated understanding of citizen values for landscape management.

“What might the futures of practice be like?” is far from a straightforward question. Emphasising "the" before the word future, implies one future. But futures thinkers have identified a range of futures that people think about. In this book we reflect on possible, probable, and preferable futures in relation to practice and work. Readers are invited to consider how their own engagement in shaping possible futures will support ways of working that they deem preferable, even those they can hardly imagine. Challenging Future Practice Possibilities also examines influences that are maintaining the status quo and others that are pushing interest-driven change. Authors consider the major challenges that practice and practitioners face today such as wicked problems, fears for the future and complex demands and opportunities posed by the digital revolution. A number of examples of future-oriented work directions such as protean careers and artificial intelligence enhancing or even replacing human workforces, are considered along with concerns like the vulnerability of many work situations and workers. In some cases workers and employers alike are unprepared for these challenges, while others see adapting to these situations as yet another pathway of practice futures evolution.

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 437 © 2018 The Authors This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. Increasing concern for the consequences of global ecological change (GEC) has seen sustainable ecological development emerge as a human health priority.1,2 Policy frameworks are in place to protect the health-nurturing properties of the natural environment and to limit the health harms of development. Landmark events such as the Ottawa Charter (1986), United Nation’s (UN) Conference on Environment and Development (1992), the Convention of Biodiversity (1992), UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), the Millennium Development Goals (2000), the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005), and now the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2015–2030 have had significant impact on domestic policy, including within Australia. There are concurrent calls for biodiversity conservation to be mainstreamed (e.g. Australia’s Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010–2030) and for strategic consideration of the World Health Organization’s Health in All Policies (2013), in addition to SDG and carbon emission reduction goals that exist and provide frameworks within which such aspirations may be met.

Scenario planning and the use of alternative futures have been used successfully to assist organisations, communities and countries to move towards desired outcomes (Dator, 2009). In this study we used a unique combination of scenario planning and a national public opinion survey to explore preferred futures for Australia in 2050. The approach used four future scenarios for Australia in 2050 as the basis for an online national public opinion survey entitled Australia: Our Future, Your Voice. Scenario development was based on a review of a broad range of scenarios for Australia and globally. We then developed four synthesis scenarios based on two axes of individual versus community orientation, and national focus on GDP growth versus a focus on wellbeing more broadly defined. The scenarios were labelled: (1) Free Enterprise (FE); (2) Strong Individualism (SI); (3) Coordinated Action (CA); and (4) Community Well-being (CW). We created a website that described each of these scenarios and invited people to complete a survey after they had reviewed the scenarios. The survey engaged 2575 adults in two groups: (1) a targeted statistically representative national sample (n = 2083) and (2) a self-selected sample (n = 492). Results from both groups and across all demographic categories revealed that a majority of participants preferred the Community Well-being (CW) scenario. 73% (Representative) and 61% (Self Select) ranked this scenario as 1st or 2nd. We also asked which scenario Australia was headed toward. 32% of the Representative sample and 50% of the Self-Selected sample participants ranked the Free Enterprise (FE) scenario as the most likely future. CW was ranked least likely to be 'where Australia is heading?' The dissonance between the future Australians want and where they thought the country is headed has clear policy implications, which we discuss. This extension of scenario planning to include public opinion surveys is novel and this approach can be used to improve thinking, discussion, planning and policy about the future of Australia, as well as potentially other countries and regions.

It is commonly argued that cities face unprecedented pressures and therefore must transform. To guide transformations, it is important to develop guiding visions. This paper reports on a futures thinking exercise in the context of cities. It employs a methodology based on a series of community workshops with a diverse mix of experts using a “strategic conversation”. The conversation was framed around the question: ‘How might your city build and maintain resilience in a range of plausible futures?’ Results of the process help to identify risks and opportunities, as well as urban transformation archetypes. Furthermore, these narratives are interpreted as city reorganization patterns similar to those theorized in resilience thinking through the notion of adaptive cycles. Finally, the possibility of developing a more functional transformation narrative for cities is outlined, which would enable the development of a collective vision for a desired urban future and how to avoid the adverse consequences of drivers of change in cities.

Cities, their citizens and service providers are being challenged from multiple fronts population growth, technology, societal and environmental challenges. We are also faced with an intersection of two groups of thought future or strategic thinking to create awareness and preparedness for future challenges, and data-driven actions and decisions. Although not contradictory, combining these perspectives poses challenges to those wanting to improve long-term infrastructure and service planning and strategies. Sydney Water has been working with the CSIRO to develop a set of possible future scenarios for Sydney and a framework to integrate them into our planning and improve our resilience in an uncertain future.

Societies, like individuals, can get trapped in patterns of behavior called social traps or “societal addictions” that provide short-term rewards but are detrimental and unsustainable in the long run. Examples include our societal addiction to inequitable over-consumption fueled by fossil energy and a “growth at all costs” economic model. This paper explores the potential to learn from successful therapies at the individual level. In particular, Motivational Interviewing (MI) is one of the most effective therapies. It is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. We suggest that one analogy to MI at the societal level is a modified version of scenario planning (SP) that has been extended to engage the entire community (CSP) in thinking about goals and alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Both MI and CSP are about exploring alternative futures in positive, non-confrontational ways and building commitment or consensus about preferred futures. We conclude that effective therapies for societal addictions may be possible, but, as we learn from MI, they will require a rebalancing of effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior (without denying those consequences) and toward building a shared vision of a positive future and the means to get there.

Societies, like individuals, can become addicted to patterns of detrimental and unsustainable behavior. We can learn from one of the most successful therapies at the individual scale, motivational interviewing (MI). MI is based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. One analogy to MI at the societal level is community engaged scenario planning, which can engage entire communities in building consensus about preferred alternative futures via public opinion surveys and forums. Effective therapies for societal addictions are possible, but require re-balancing effort away from only pointing out the dire consequences of current behavior and toward also building a truly shared vision of a positive future and ways to get there.

We reviewed a broad range of scenarios of the future developed for Australia and globally and developed a synthesis for Australia. Our four synthesis scenarios were structured around two axes: (1) individual vs. community orientation and (2) whether biophysical limits are binding on continued GDP growth or could be overcome with technology. While global scenarios have explored transformational or collapse futures, very few scenarios at the national scale for Australia have done so. Australian scenarios have also not articulated positive futures that are very different from the status quo. We have addressed this gap. We describe each scenario in tabular and summary form. We also developed a public opinion survey to be used to involve Australians in ranking the scenarios and thinking about the future they want. This extension of scenario planning is novel and we hope to employ it to improve thinking, discussion, and policy about Australia's future.

A new approach was developed for Australia's 2011 national State of the Environment (SoE) report to integrate the assessment of biophysical and human elements of the environment. A Common Assessment and Reporting Framework (CARF) guided design and implementation, responding to jurisdictional complexity, outstanding natural diversity and ecosystem values, high levels of cultural and heritage diversity, and a paucity of national-scale data. The CARF provided a transparent response to the need for an independent, robust and evidence-based national SoE report. We conclude that this framework will be effective for subsequent national SoE assessments and other integrated national-scale assessments in data-poor regions.

Despite the great potential of palaeo-environmental information to strengthen natural resource policy, science and practical outcomes naturally occurring archives of palaeo-environmental and ecosystem service information have not been fully recognised or utilised to inform the development of environmental policy. In this paper, we describe how Australian palaeo-environmental science is improving environmental understanding through local studies and regional syntheses that inform us about past conditions, extreme conditions and altered ecosystem states. Australian innovations in ecosystem services research and palaeo-environmental science contribute in five important contexts: discussions about environmental understanding and management objectives, improving access to information, improved knowledge about the dynamics of ecosystem services, increasing understanding of environmental processes and resource availability, and engaging interdisciplinary approaches to manage ecosystem services. Knowledge of the past is an important starting point for setting present and future resource management objectives, anticipating consequences of trade-offs, sharing risk and evaluating and monitoring the ongoing availability of ecosystem services. Palaeo-environmental information helps reframe discussions about desirable futures and collaborative efforts between scientists, planners, managers and communities. However, further steps are needed to translate the ecosystem services concept into ecosystem services policy and tangible management objectives and actions that are useful, feasible and encompass the range of benefits to people from ecosystems. We argue that increased incorporation of palaeo-environmental information into policy and decision-making is needed for evidence-based adaptive management to enhance sustainability of ecosystem functions and reduce long-term risks.