This study constructs a labor mobility network based on Baidu Migration data after the Lantern Festival every year from 2020 to 2023 and systematically analyzes the dynamic structural characteristics and formation mechanisms of China's urban labor mobility network using social network analysis methods and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models.The results show that:(1)The labor mobility network among Chinese cities exhibits a temporal duality of stability with an overall pattern of a remarkable rhombic structure centered around the axis of Zhengzhou-Wuhan and topped by Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,and Chengdu.The Internal mobility of this rhombic area exceeds far more that that of the periphery areas demonstrating strong connections and clustering effects among the rhombic network.(2)Compared with earlier periods,the differentiation in labor mobility within and outside the rhombic area in 2023 is more pronounced,and the cities in central China have a more significant axis of the rhombic region with increased network density and reduced high-intensity mobility routes,which indicate a trend towards more balanced labor mobility.(3)The rhombic network shows a distinct pattern of centralized inflow and dispersed outflow.The labor inflow promotes return flow accordingly,and such reciprocal labor mobility continuously foster city networks tied by resources,economic strength,and environmental advantages,forming a dual structure of labor flow from the backward to the advanced cities and the labor flow among the advanced cities.(4)The drivers of labor mobility are increasingly multi-dimensional.
Based on the big migration data of the unique Spring Festival Travel Rush in China from Baidu Online Network Technology(Beijing)Co.,Ltd,this paper constructs the migration network to analyze the characteristics of population flow and investigate the influence of dialect culture on population flow by population gravity model in Guangdong Province.The result shows that regions with frequent and large population movements to and from are not only geographically close,but also has more similarities in dialect culture.the difference of dialect culture can hinder the population flow among the regions,while the regions with less difference in dialect culture have significantly higher probabilities of population flow in Guangdong province.This conclusion is still valid after the robustness test and endogeneity treatment.
This paper reviews and analyses the characteristics and changes of population distribution in 25 border counties of Yunnan from 2000 to 2022.It is found that the population of the border counties in Yunnan is characterized by stable size with a slight decrease,dramatic concentration,increasing higher urbanization rate,deepening aging and expanding scale of separation of registered and actual residence.This study provides some reference for achieving the goals of promoting the social development,enhancing the common prosperity.
With the global application of flexible employment,the health status of flexible employees has become a hot spot of sociologists,while few studies shed light on the health status of the flexible employees under the Hukou system in China.Based on the data of CGSS 2012-2017,this study examines the negative effects of precarious employment on workers'health and its hukou-based differences.The findings show that flexible employment jeopardizes the health of flexible employees by reducing working qualities and affecting psychological conditions.The urban Hukou of other cities and the local Hukou of the area where they are working can protect the health of the flexible employees,and the migrant workers with rural Hukou engaging in flexible job are facing the disadvantaged health in China's labor market under the dual impacts of precarious employment and the Hukou segmentation.
This paper evaluates the effects of flexible job for the mothers on the alleviation of women's work-family conflict and the reduction of women's childbearing costs in order to encourage childbearing behaviors by alleviating the punishment of motherhood based on the literature reviews and the observations of mother's posts in reality.The results show that job flexibility can alleviate the punishment of motherhood caused by the number increase of children born and the increase of every unit of job flexibility can alleviate the decrease of women's annual income because of every one more child born from 8.6%to 8.0%.That is,from the perspective of income penalty,women's fertility penalty decreases by 7.0%.Meanwhile the heterogeneity analysis shows that job flexibility is more effective on the decrease of punishment of motherhood for the females working as clerks,workers of service industries,and the workers in non-state-owned enterprises as well as those without children care supports from their parents.Compared with other fertility support measures,job flexibility is less effective than parental childcare supports while it is as effective as social child care supports.
This paper combines the digital financial inclusion index at the macro level with the data from the CFPS at the micro level to explore the impact of digital financial inclusion and entrepreneurship on gender income disparity.It shows that the digital inclusive finance plays a significant role in improving personal income by promoting entrepreneurship of the people.However,there are certain gender differences,for the digital inclusive finance promotes the male's income more than that of the female and widens the gender income gap,while the entrepreneurship raise the women's income more than that of the men's and narrows the gender income gap.The heterogeneity analysis based on human capital,material capital and social capital shows that digital dividend and digital divide coexist in the process which digital inclusive finance impact people's income through entrepreneurship.In general,digital financial inclusion significantly promotes entrepreneurship and narrows the gender income gap,especially for the women with low human capital,low material capital and low social capital,thus entrepreneurship is an important way to promote gender equality.
借助国际经验加深对低生育率的认识与理解是国内低生育率研究的重要内容之一.欧洲作为世界上最早出现大范围低生育率现象且持续时间最长的地区,一直以来是我们关注的重点.目前国内大多数对欧洲生育率变动的考察多停留在总和生育率(TFR)水平变动视角,较少关注TFR的构成变动.这对本身存在内部差异且正在经历第二次人口转变、婚育行为已经发生较大改变的欧洲而言是不全面的,因而也难以对生育率变动的原因作出恰当的解读.为此,本文选择了 5 个来自欧洲不同地区、代表不同生育水平的低生育率国家作为近期欧洲TFR变动的缩影,通过对其TFR的构成分解,试图从构成变动视角解读欧洲近期生育率变动.研究发现,这些欧洲国家的TFR在年龄构成、婚姻构成上变化较为显著,TFR回升的主要动力来自非婚生育的补充.与欧洲相比,中国目前的生育率并无依赖非婚生育补充的现实可能性,而欧洲国家婚内生育推延效应的加深以及非婚生育补偿效应的减弱警示我们,即使存在非婚生育的补充,也不能对低生育率发展趋势掉以轻心,促进生育任重道远.
本文利用CEPS基线调查数据,采用泛精准匹配模型(CEM),考察了留守经历对农村儿童非认知能力的影响效应,构建中介效应模型,考察父母时间投入和家庭教育投入的中介作用,并基于倾向得分匹配法(PSM)进行了异质性分析.研究发现:留守经历显著降低了农村儿童的宜人性和情绪稳定性,对农村女童、独自留守儿童的负效应更大,寄宿制和同伴支持一定程度上弱化了留守的负效应.此外,农村留守儿童并未获得较多的家庭教育投入,且家庭教育投入对非认知能力发展的作用不显著,留守经历完全通过减少父母时间投入,负向作用于农村儿童非认知能力.构建减少"留守"的制度体系和有利于我国农村留守儿童全面发展的社会支持体系,以最大化消除留守的不利影响.
促进返乡农民工创业对巩固脱贫攻坚成果与全面推进乡村振兴战略具有重要作用.本文基于对西部地区脱贫县 829 名返乡创业农民工的调查数据,讨论典型欠发达地区返乡农民工的创业动机对他们的创业绩效的影响及其作用机制.研究发现,机会型创业者能获得更为显著的创业绩效.中介效应的检验表明,机会型创业的返乡农民工通过积极扩大创业规模进而提升其自身的创业绩效.而且,市场信心越高涨,机会型创业与生存型创业的创业者之间的绩效差异将趋于缩小,即市场信心在创业动机与返乡农民工创业绩效之间存在负向调节作用.据此本文建议,为生存型创业的返乡农民工提供智力、金融和信息方面的支持,并建立相应的激励措施,鼓励他们稳步扩大经营规模.
家庭成员的居住拆分和重组为儿童发展塑造了多样化的家庭环境.本文采用中国教育追踪调查数据(CEPS)探究家庭居住方式对儿童认知能力的影响及路径机制.研究发现:亲子共居家庭儿童的认知能力优于亲子分离家庭儿童,不同类型的亲子分离对儿童认知能力产生的影响具有差异.从分离原因看,儿童的认知能力高低表现为亲子共居>父母离异>父母外出>父母丧偶;从分离对象看,表现为亲子共居/与母居>与父居>不与父母居;在不同类型的亲子分离家庭中,与父母双方分离和母亲外出型家庭儿童的认知能力显著更差.家庭居住方式通过经济支持和情感支持为中介影响儿童的认知水平.异质性分析发现母亲外出存在城乡效应和性别效应,需关注母亲外出型的农村儿童和男童的个体发展.对此应当为父母外出型家庭的亲子团聚提供政策支持,为亲子分离家庭儿童的发展提供针对性的帮扶指导.
本文选取中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)2014～2018 年数据,首次提出ADL和IADL综合指标,从日常生活基本自理能力和社会环境活动参与能力两个维度评价,认为仅当ADLs和IADLs均自理的老年人处于完好的健康状态,细化考虑到ADLs自理而IADLs不自理的半自理老年人,并由此采用多状态生命表测算"日常生活基本自理且社会环境活动参与能力良好健康预期寿命"和"日常生活基本自理但社会环境活动参与能力较差健康预期寿命".对比分析结果表明:(1)ADLs和IADLs均自理的老年人健康期更长,ADLs自理而IADLs不自理的老年人健康状态转移情况不佳.(2)从ADL指标、IADL指标和综合指标下自理健康预期寿命看,我国 65 岁及以上老年人日常生活基本自理能力较好,而纳入社会活动参与情况时,高龄老人的健康状态不够理想;各年龄段的自评健康预期寿命的占比远大于综合指标下完全自理的健康预期寿命占比,与实际自理健康状态不符.(3)我国 70 岁及以上男性人口不如女性长寿,但健康期更长,高龄女性老年人更多处于日常生活基本自理但社会环境活动参与能力较差的半自理状态.本文实证分析了递进式综合指标的科学性和严谨性,提议重视老年人的社会环境活动参与能力,对处于不同健康状态的老年人分别提供针对性帮扶服务举措.
本文采用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2013、2015 和 2018 年数据,聚焦"生产性老龄化"经济活动中的有偿劳动,使用样本选择模型检验参与有偿劳动对 61～79 岁老年群体医疗费用的影响,并进一步使用工具变量方法克服有偿劳动行为自选择导致的内生性问题.研究发现:(1)参与有偿劳动显著降低了老年人的就医概率并减少了医疗费用支出.(2)身体活动能力是中介变量,存在"参与有偿劳动—提高身体活动能力—降低医疗费用"的作用路径.心理健康状态是调节变量,其增强了参与有偿劳动对医疗费用的降低效果.(3)参与有偿劳动对医疗费用的降低效果在门诊和自我诊疗支出、61～69岁年龄段、转移支付收入水平较低、从事非农劳动的老年人中更显著.本文研究有助于拓宽对"生产性老龄化"经济价值的评估维度,为实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略,制定鼓励老年人参与经济活动提供决策依据.
使用1997-2011 年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据与 2005 年1%人口抽样调查数据,考察了迁移机会对农村儿童高中就学影响的性别差异.将各城市到北京、上海、广州的球面距离均值作为跨市迁移率的工具变量.研究发现,在高中年龄段,迁移机会减弱了农村女孩的就学倾向,却对男孩没有显著影响.针对这一现象,给出的解释是年轻女性的迁移收益较男性更高,且劳动力市场上存在对女性年龄的歧视,年轻女性的迁移收益高于年长女性.这使得女孩较男孩面临的就学机会成本更高,因此迁移机会更大程度上降低了女孩就学概率.
在我国人口老龄化形势日趋严峻的背景下,放宽生育限制是缓解人口老龄化趋势必不可少的措施之一.然而随着生育数量的增加,不仅会改变原有的家庭规模与结构,还可能通过调整家庭资源和家务劳动的分配进一步影响家庭中老年人的生活水平.本文以 2014-2018 年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,构建老年人美好生活水平指标体系并利用灰色关联分析法进行测度,实证分析家庭孙辈数量对老年人美好生活水平的影响.结果表明:家庭孙辈数量对老年人美好生活水平具有倒U型影响,祖辈隔代照料强度在其中起部分中介作用,且孙辈数量对于女性、城市、低龄和低收入老年群体美好生活水平的倒U型影响更为明显.建议既要发展和完善生育支持政策体系,也要不断推进和落实积极老龄化措施,以期平衡养老和育幼的关系,缓解当前一老一小的社会问题.
三孩政策将人们的生育空间扩大至三个孩子,但以往的调查数据难以识别三孩政策的生育释放效应.基于第三期"湖北百县生育调查",本文考察了城市青年的生育偏好、生育计划及其影响因素.分析发现:城市青年中具有二孩生育意愿的人群占比13.85%,具有三孩生育意愿的人群占比 2.31%,一孩家庭的生育潜力和人口规模均高于二孩家庭.进一步研究发现,高社会经济地位家庭更想再生育一个孩子,尤其体现在三孩生育上;生育水平较高的地区往往具有良好的生育氛围,因此居民有再生育意愿的几率也越高;在不愿再生育的原因中,相当一部分城市青年主观认为已经达到理想的生育规模,而非受到客观因素限制.与以往的"男孩偏好"不同,城市青年群体中出现一种新的"女孩偏好".在性别期望上,想再要女孩的意愿远强于想再要男孩的意愿.研究城市青年的生育偏好和生育计划对进一步完善生育支持政策体系具有重要的启示意义.
流动人口传染病就医行为对控制疫情扩散、保障居民身体健康与生命安全具有重要意义.本文基于 2017 年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,研究基本公共服务均等化对流动人口传染病就医行为的影响及其异质性.结果表明:(1)基本公共服务均等化能够显著提高流动人口传染病就医行为,该结论在稳健性检验下依然成立.(2)对基本公共服务均等化进行多维拆解发现,基本劳动就业、社会保险以及卫生医疗服务能够显著促进流动人口传染病就医行为,而基本公共教育与住房保障服务未能提高流动人口传染病就医行为.(3)基本公共服务均等化对流动人口就医行为的促进作用在新生代、农村户口、高收入组以及东部地区组中更加明显.
多子女家庭内,家庭内部教育资源普遍存在着分配不平等的现象.利用 2010 年和 2018 年中国家庭追踪调查的匹配数据,本文研究了我国多子女家庭中教育获得的"首孩效应"和"末孩效应".结果显示:(1)末孩的受教育年限比其他排行的同胞高 0.883 年,存在显著的"末孩优势"效应;(2)首孩的受教育年限比其他排行的同胞低0.535年,但仅在非农业户口群体中存在显著的"首孩劣势"效应;(3)"首孩劣势"与"末孩优势"存在世代差异,该效应在1978年后出生的个体中具有显著性,而在1978年以前出生个体中不显著;(4)分位数回归表明,个体教育获得的"末孩优势"只在较低教育阶段显著,在较高教育阶段不显著,可能是因为在较高教育阶段禀赋效应抵消了排行效应.政策设计时,应加大对多孩家庭的外部教育资源支持力度、提高养育教育成本补偿的精确性,进而缓解家庭教育资源约束、优化家庭内部教育资源分配.
中国家庭竞争性地参与到校外补习、兴趣班、特长班、夏令营等结构化校外活动,成为扩大教育结果不均等、增加家长焦虑的来源.文章以中国教育追踪调查(CEPS)基线调查数据为例,分析了家庭社会经济地位对青少年校外活动安排特别是结构化校外活动参与的影响.研究表明,青少年校外时间安排的阶层差异明显.具体而言,高社会经济地位的家庭更倾向于对青少年的校外时间进行精心策划和安排,参加各类结构化校外活动的比率更高,每周用于校外作业、参加辅导班的时间也更长,用于结构化校外活动的经济投入也更多.相反,较低社会经济地位的家庭对青少年的校外时间更缺乏规划,在结构化校外活动的参与广度、参与强度和资金投入度上均处于劣势,用于非结构化校外活动的时间则较多.
基于劳动经济学相关理论,本文利用中国劳动力动态调查 2014 年和 2016 年混合横截面数据,使用工具变量分析方法实证检验农地确权对农村女性的就业促进效应及影响机制.研究发现,农地确权显著的促进了农村女性劳动参与.进一步讨论发现,确权因婚育状况、人力资本和工作经历的不同而对农村女性的农业劳动参与和非农劳动参与产生异质性影响.因此,未来确权工作中应注重土地经营权确权中的性别差异,考虑农村女性就业需求的多维度因素,提高农村女性的就业机会和整体福利水平.
Based on the data from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity in the 2002-2018, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of marital status on the healthy life expectancy of the elderly. The basic regression result shows that the healthy life expectancy of the elderly with a spouse is longer than that of those without a spouse. After controlling the previous period’s health level and marital status, the widowed elderly have the shortest healthy life expectancy. In the same time, the elderly,including those living with their families, lower educated, lower-income, without medical insurance,with chronic diseases, and having severe illnesses,are at a disadvantage against their healthy life expectancy. The heterogeneity analysis shows that marital status has a greater impact on the female elderly and the rural elderly, and the rural female elderly and the urban male elderly have the shortest healthy life expectancy. The mechanism analysis shows that individual health behaviors（smoking, drinking）, social participation, and the availability of timely medical services are significant channel variables. The moderating effect analysis indicates that the influence of marriage on the healthy life expectancy of the elderly is positively regulated by their optimism attitude and negatively regulated by their loneliness, anxiety, and independence.
