宏观经济叙事有着经济学共同叙事的逻辑自洽性,包含了分配、规制表达和福利体验等多方面,涉及了各类社会主体的接受性.宏观经济学具有经验主义式的叙事风格,更重视经济发展的时间序贯特征,即一连串的事件组成的发展进程,在历史过程中人们相互共鸣形成了共同叙事,形成了相互协调的分工协作和协作稳定.从宏观叙事的时代背景、经济共识、激励机制和政策部门责任等四个方面,对中国1978 年以来宏观经济叙事进行梳理,总结计划经济到改革开放初期的综合平衡理论、有计划商品经济下的宏观叙事、中国特色社会主义市场经济下基于出口导向的宏观叙事、高速增长与资产建构的宏观叙事、迈向高质量发展的宏观叙事探索等五个阶段的中国宏观经济叙事及其转变.提出中国正在面临国家治理现代化和公共财政体系改革、货币供给体系改革、政府配置资源体系的改革、构建社会等非经济因素的"正反馈"机制和向高水平对外开放转变的新阶段.
The policy goal orientation of market economy, in addition to the pursuit of growth and efficiency, is what most concerned policy objective is fairness. That is, avoiding excessive disparity and extreme differentiation of wealth and income distribution. The core of common prosperity should be common development instead of the orientation of equal wealth based on distribution means. Development is the absolute principle, and common development is the absolute principle of common prosperity. Market economy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for common prosperity. Common prosperity is essentially national competitiveness. Only countries with strong international competitiveness can achieve common prosperity. People′s wealth implies the soul and strength of national competitiveness. The prosperity of a country is the backbone of common prosperity, and the common prosperity of the people is the root of its prosperity. The essence of common prosperity is the realization of all people′s ability and choice. Common prosperity is the constructive development goal of modern market economy, based on and guided by certain economic ethics, and so called a socialist market economy. Common prosperity is first and foremost common creation. More creators can make common prosperity more possible. To realize common prosperity, unite all forces that can be united, mobilize all positive factors, and tap all potential wealth creation.
Under the current complex global energy trade relations, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States have had a major impact on the international energy trade pattern. Based on the 2020 world energy trade data, this paper uses the 12-country GSIM model and the trade network model to simulate four possible trade sanctions scenarios and analyze the four effects of trade sanctions, namely, destructive effect, leakage effect, deflection effect and inhibition effect, on the changes of energy trade volume, output, welfare level and trade pattern. The results show that:（1） for the sanction-offering countries and Russia, when the degree of trade sanctions is relatively light, the trade volume and output of the countries are almost unchanged; when the degree of trade sanctions is large, the energy trade between the sanction-offering countries and Russia will be seriously affected by the trade disruption effect, which will eventually lead to a significant decline in the trade volume and output of both sides; moreover, there is a leakage effect in the process of trade sanctions, but the leakage effect cannot offset the impact of the destructive effect on the sanction-offering countries and Russia.（2） For non-sanctioned countries, the energy import trade with Russia has increased under the influence of the trade deflection effect of sanctions, while the energy trade with sanction-offering countries is affected by both the deflection effect and the inhibition effect, and the trade volume has increased and decreased.（3） From the perspective of welfare, with the increase of trade sanctions, the destructive effect of trade sanctions has led to a decline in the net social welfare of the sanction-offering countries and Russia, and the net welfare loss of the EU even exceeds that of Russia.（4） The closeness of the energy trade pattern network will decrease with the aggravation of sanctions. The focus of Russia′s energy exports will shift from Europe to Asia. The EU′s energy imports will shift from Russia before the sanctions to the United States and Middle East countries, and the Middle East countries will become the most important energy import regions of Japan and South Korea.
探讨"以国内大循环为主"情形下,收入差距、消费内需和经济增长的关系,匹配了一套高质量收入不平等国际数据,并使用经典模型验证了数据的可靠性,进而从理论层面分析"外循环"和"内循环"发展模式下"收入不平等—消费内需—经济增长"路径,在经典模型中引入内需变量,采用系统广义矩估计法(系统GMM)方法进行研究.发现以"外循环"主导的经济增长模式下,收入不平等加剧与内需占比下降同时发生会促进经济增长,以及以"内循环"主导的经济增长模式下,收入均等化与内需占比上升同时发生也会促进经济增长.立足新的发展阶段,应进一步深化收入分配改革,缩小收入差距,增强居民消费能力和消费意愿,最终实现经济增长向"以国内大循环为主"转变.
In the new era, digital technology is the new driving force which leads to the high-quality development of ideological and political education. The coupling of digital technology and ideological and political education in structure, function and value proves that it is suitable and feasible for its high-quality development in the digital era. While digital technology promotes the education′s upgrading and effect, it also causes certain risks. First, the tension loss of digital embedment in ideological and political education brings about the wrong tendencies such as digital suspension, dependence, supremacy and so on. Second, the subject of ideological and political education shows the dissonance and alienation tendency of the relationship between human self, human beings, human beings and education, human beings and society. Third, the excessive collection and abuse of ideological and political education data brings risks and challenges such as data overload, privacy invasion and data security. Fourth, algorithm bias, information cocoon, algorithm black box and other problems are caused by improper algorithm. So some concrete solutions are suggested: deepen the understanding by clarifying the strategic positioning of digital technology empowerment; strengthen the digital literacy education by playing the educational value of ideological and political education; strengthen the digital technical specification by promoting the full release of technical potential energy.
Hukou reform is one of the key projects for advancing new urbanization. The main issue of the reform is developmental governments preferring land urbanization rather than population urbanization due to their financial expenditure and economic incentives. However, external incentives are difficult to explain the regional divergence of the same policy. Why does a number of developed small cities lag behind in the hukou reform? According to the case of city A in Jiangsu Province, local government′s behavior follows the blame-avoiding logic besides the developmental logic, resulting to ″blame-avoiding local fragmentation″. In other words, the ministry of public security is in charge of the hukou reform, while there are various implicit costs paid by the other ministries. For example, the opportunity costs of land use, which is scarce in developed small cities, aggravate the complications for expanding education resource supply, as well as the risks caused by insufficient supply of basic education. As the local governments of the ministries which pay for the hukou reform are not the ones benefit from it, the supporting ministries lack motivation to take the additional costs incurred from the hukou reform, though their responsibilities are clearly stipulated. In conclusion, the organizational behavior is influenced by internal structure besides hierarchical motivators, and moderated by resource limitation, leading to the policy implementation gap among different cities. Not only the central government but also the local governments should struggle for hukou reform implementation, by regulating the costs and benefits among local governments, preventing the blame-avoiding behavior of the supporting ministries.
Based on the Senior Dining Program cases, this paper explores the characteristics and dilemmas of the externally driven countryside-based community′s mutual-aid elderly care, the organizational mechanisms of the internally driven elderly care, as well as the two sets of dialectical relationships involved in developing them at a low cost. It has found out that the government-led care system reveals high risk of involution of resource input because of its pursuit for management standardization, while the role of grass-root organizations contributes very little in the market-oriented elderly care system. Comparatively, the elderly care initiated by endogenous self-organization functions well. On the one hand, the mobilization of rural social resources greatly reduces the costs. On the other hand, the inner-trust and public scrutiny contribute to the risk control. Meanwhile, the left-behind villagers are better organized in the care program development.
当代社会研究栏目1.乡村振兴战略及"三农"问题研究2.巩固脱贫攻坚成果及解决相对贫困长效机制研究3.以县域为重要载体的城镇化建设研究4.老龄化、人口结构变动与社会发展研究5.社会治理体系与治理能力现代化新发展研究6.碳达峰碳中和目标与社会发展研究7.国民经济和社会发展"十四五"规划和2035年远...>>详细当代社会研究栏目1.乡村振兴战略及"三农"问题研究2.巩固脱贫攻坚成果及解决相对贫困长效机制研究3.以县域为重要载体的城镇化建设研究4.老龄化、人口结构变动与社会发展研究5.社会治理体系与治理能力现代化新发展研究6.碳达峰碳中和目标与社会发展研究7.国民经济和社会发展"十四五"规划和2035年远景目标建设研究8.中国特色社会主义社会学理论与实践研究超大城市治理与建设研究栏目1.京津冀协同发展研究2.推进粤港澳大湾区建设研究3.智慧城市、市域社会治理现代化与城市更新研究4.超大城市治理与碳达峰碳中和目标研究
从经济循环的视角厘清国内国际双循环,基于供给和需求面构建双循环测度框架,由全球投入产出(ICIO)表调整缩并为中国与其他国家(或地区)非竞争性投入产出表,将中国国内生产总值进行分解,对1995—2018年国内国际双循环进行测度,并由测度双循环结构分析新发展格局下的双创新模式.由测算结果可知:1995—2018年,国内循环对GDP的贡献率呈现"U"型曲线;国际循环对GDP的贡献率呈现倒"U"型曲线.研究表明:在数量上,国内循环的主体地位基本确立,但国内循环立足于技术创新的高质量发展动力模式有待实现;国际循环虽然充分利用全球资源配置和全球价值链,但原有的利用外资等增长方式转换为以技术创新为主的高质量发展动力机制也有待实现.提出建立国内国际双循环相互促进良性的双创新模式,从而实现中国新的发展格局.
中国正处在快速城市化进程中,城市化既是农民进城的过程,又是大量人口由中西部地区向东部地区转移的过程,这个过程源自城乡差距和区域差距,进一步塑造了城乡差距与区域差距.中国发展中存在着城乡发展不平衡和区域发展不平衡,这种不平衡与工业化和现代化内在要求生产要素高度集聚有关.当前,中国存在的东西差距,本质上是城乡差距,实质上是东部沿海地区已经形成规模极为庞大的城市经济带;未来,农村人口进城和人口向东部地区转移具有必然性,而人口和生产力高度聚集是现代社会的普遍现象,具有合理性,中国城市化需要遵循此必然性.
基于大数据和大数据方法,阐释了思想政治教育大数据方法的内涵、主要特征、运用空间.思想政治教育大数据方法是大数据与思想政治教育深度融合形成的思想政治教育方法,两者的融合主要体现在三个层面:一是大数据背景下思想政治教育方法的发展;二是大数据方法在思想政治教育中的运用;三是形成特定的思想政治教育大数据方法.思想政治教育大数据方法从本质内涵来看,既是一种思想政治教育的方法、一种大数据的方法,也是一种全样本的方法、一种科学化个性化精确化的方法.思想政治教育大数据方法具有大数据、科学性、系统性、精确性等特征,在思想政治教育的认识方法、实施方法、研究方法、评价方法中具有广泛的运用空间.
选取2003—2019年进入代际传承阶段的中国A股上市家族企业为样本,探讨不同亲缘关系二代对企业违规行为的异质性影响.研究发现:相对于远亲家族成员二代,近亲家族成员二代抑制了企业违规行为;企业数字化转型对上述关系有负向调节作用,经济政策不确定性对上述关系有正向调节作用.差异性分析发现,区分违规类型,与经营违规和领导人违规相比,近亲家族成员二代对信息披露违规的治理作用更明显;区分违规严重程度,近亲家族成员二代对一般违规行为的抑制作用更显著.提出近亲家族成员二代显著提高了企业违规后被稽查出来的概率,并且降低了企业的违规倾向.从家族企业亲缘关系与代际传承这一交叉视角出发,研究不同亲缘关系二代对企业违规行为的差异性影响,力图进一步完善上市家族企业治理.
基于2021年陕西N县儿童生存与发展调查数据,通过构建多分类逻辑回归模型分析家庭人口禀赋对中国农村已婚女性劳动参与的影响.结果显示:相比于男性群体,家庭人口禀赋对农村已婚女性劳动参与的影响更强,子女年龄和配偶家务支持有正向影响,向父辈的家务支持有负向影响;家庭人口禀赋对已婚女性劳动参与的影响效应在不同流动经历群体间存在差异,女性的近期流动和县外流动均会增加其劳动参与的概率,而配偶的流动距离则会负向降低其劳动参与的可能性.据此,释放性别红利、促进农村已婚女性参与劳动,要因地制宜、因人而异地拓宽个体就业选择,从增强家庭人口禀赋着手,充分发挥配偶与社会力量,创新养老与抚幼方式,宣传正确的性别角色观念,营造公平竞争的劳动环境.
新时代地方高校科技创新评价趋势,应倡导"回到激发地方高校科技创新活力的评价初心""回应服务地方区域经济社会发展的实践关切",以及"重建地方高校对区域发展社会贡献指标的评价导向"等.地方高校肩负着为区域社会经济发展提供智力与科技支撑的重要职责,可分为研究型、应用型和技能型三类,作为区域创新发展的知识源和人才源,地位日渐突出,并且根据其不同的属性和使命,在科技创新目标与评价重点等方面的侧重点应各有不同.为探究地方高校科技创新能力评价体系构建,邀请来自教育部、科技部、以及高校科技创新管理评价研究领域的专家进行调研和问卷咨询,在此基础上,坚持创新导向、质量导向和贡献导向,建立分层分类的地方高校科技创新评价体系,并从科技创新队伍、科技创新支撑条件、科技创新成果、社会贡献与影响、人才培养等5个维度,构建了地方高校科技创新能力评价的三级评估指标.提出不同类型的地方高校科技创新能力分类评价的要点,即地方研究型高校应着重测评"科技引领力""科研贡献力""科技创新成果"指标;地方应用型高校应侧重"经济贡献力""人才培养"指标;地方技能型高校则应偏重"人才培养"指标.
制度优势又称制度优越性、制度自信等,社会主义制度优势教育是个老话题.中国特色社会主义进入新时代,一方面是社会主义制度优越性发挥的结果,另一方面为制度优势教育提供了宝贵经验.这些经验主要有:用党的创新理论武装头脑,以理论自信培育制度自信,将理直和气壮统一起来;将中国特色社会主义置于社会主义发展史中,在"四史"教育中坚定历史自信,感悟制度优势;围绕中华民族伟大复兴主题,以"中国之治"伟大成就印证制度优越性的实践价值;结合百年未有之大变局,以人类文明新形态为标识,在比较中确证制度优越性.
农村社会治理共同体建设既是国家治理转型的必然要求,也是全面实现乡村振兴的客观需要,更是社会治理理论不断优化的结果,具有重要的时代价值.中国有效建设农村社会治理共同体需要充分考虑区域间社会基础的差异性,而社区基础与组织基础构成理解社会基础的两个重要维度.随着中国城镇化、工业化进程的持续推进,不同区域农村的社区基础和组织基础呈现出明显的差异,从而会对各地农村基层社会治理共同体的建设逻辑产生重要影响.提出农村基层社会治理共同体建设需要考虑区域间经验传递的适用性问题,应从农民的现实需求、社区基础、组织基础等多方面进行综合考察,避免出现因经验传递不当造成的治理不佳效果,以及财政资源和社会资源浪费.
研究"环境、社会和治理"(ESG)作为评估企业环境可持续性、社会价值与治理能力的综合矩阵指标体系,识别企业高质量发展的重要指标.从ESG的影响机制看,存在外部影响机制——政府治理以及资本市场参与,以及内部影响机制——E、S与G的相互关系,由此可以构建ESG"101"理论分析框架,阐明ESG与上市公司高质量发展之间的关系.并从政府部门的影响以及资本市场自身的作用两个方面,对上市公司ESG表现与股票收益率进行实证检验后发现,根据监管要求披露ESG相关信息的上市公司更受投资者关注,ESG评分以及其中的组成部分环境"E"和社会责任"S"的评分能够显著正向影响股票收益率.监管层面应制定标准化ESG评估体系规范上市公司ESG信息披露,引导上市公司和金融机构形成"ESG表现-ESG投资"的循环机制,促进有利于节能、减排和降污企业发展的同时,倒逼高污染、高能耗、高排放企业进行绿色改造和创新,发挥ESG助力资本市场落实双碳目标的功能,实现上市公司高质量发展.
进入新时代,意识形态工作作为国家软实力的重要标志,已经成为维护国家安全和社会安定的重要着力点.以党的十九届六中全会对于中国意识形态领域形势发生全局性、根本性变革的重大判断为立足点,致力于从新时代意识形态工作转变的现象表征、演进逻辑、经验总结入手,对这一新形势、新判断进行阐释.在现象表征上,主要体现在意识形态工作定位更具科学性,制度臻于完善,话语体系彰显时代气息,对错误思潮批判卓有成效;在演进逻辑上,分别从历史逻辑、理论逻辑、时代逻辑探究社会主义意识形态发展的理路;在经验总结上,坚持以马克思主义思想为理论根本,明确党管意识形态逻辑,根植于中华优秀传统文化,坚守意识形态安全阵地,坚持伟大斗争,引领社会主义意识形态发展行稳致远.
