The cross-country spillover effects of macro-prudential policies has an important impact on policy effectiveness and financial stability,and is one of the hot spots in the field of macro-finance.Based on the actual background of cross-country spillover effects of macro-prudential policies,this paper reviews and summarizes the representative literatures from three aspects:influencing factors,transmission mechanisms and policy responses.First,macro-prudential policies spill across borders through financial channels,trade channels and other channels,among which bank credit channels in financial channels are the main overflow channels.Second,the characteristics of commercial banks,the types of macro-prudential policy tools and the timing of macro-prudential policy implementation in the cycle affect the spillover effects.Finally,under the spillover effects of macro-prudential policies,policy coordination is deemed necessary,but its practice still faces challenges.This paper argues that we should refine the discussion of different macroprudential policies,continue the statistical work of macroprudential policy-related data,broaden the research objects of policy spillover,and improve the existing research methods.Under the"Two-Pillar"regulation framework,it is also imperative to incorporate monetary policy into the consideration,exploring its role in cross-border policy spillovers.
Based on the unbalanced panel data of 33 listed commercial banks in China from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2021,this paper empirically examines the impact of asset securitization on bank systemic risk.We find that asset securitization by commercial banks reduces bank systemic risk;for banks with poor profitability and high credit risk levels,asset securitization has a stronger effect on systemic risk reduction.Further analysis finds that the risk reduction effect of corporate asset securitization is more pronounced compared to credit asset securitization.This paper enriches the related research on the economic consequences of asset securitization and the influencing factors of systemic risk,which has important insights for commercial banks to promote asset securitization business and for regulators to prevent the systemic risk that may be triggered by these activities.
Various economic entities hope to incorporate insurance companies into their self-centered enterprise networks,utilizing the investment and financing functions of insurance companies for internal capital transactions.This paper theoretically analyzes how the ultimate controlling shareholders influence the internal capital transaction activities of life insurance companies and provides empirical evidence based on data of 73 life insurance companies in China from 2013 to 2021.We find that the better the operating performance of a life insurance company,the larger the scale of capital outflow to its ultimate controlling shareholders or related enterprises of the ultimate controlling shareholders;only when the solvency of the life insurance company is poor will the ultimate controlling shareholders net inject capital into the life insurance company.Moderating effects tests show that compared to financial institution controllers,non-financial institution controllers extract more funds from life insurance companies;with increasing shareholding ratio,controllers reduce the scale of capital outflow from life insurance companies and net inject capital into them.Therefore,this paper proposes intensive supervision and information disclosure for the ultimate controlling shareholders of life insurance companies.
The Central Financial Work Conference in 2023 clearly pointed out that the access standards and regulatory requirements of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be strict,and the channels for bank capital replenishment should be broadened.In recent years,Chinese financial management departments have made many attempts in the capital risk regulation of small and medium-sized banks and the improvement of capital replenishment channels,and have achieved certain results.However,from the perspective of risk examples such as Baoshang Bank,many small and medium-sized banks have insufficient capital quality due to governance defects,which makes them unable to effectively absorb losses in a risk environment even if they have a high level of book capital adequacy,potentially leading to an underestimation of actual risks.On the basis of recent research and theoretical analysis,this paper uses two indicators to measure the quality of bank capital,which include dividend distribution and profit correlation(degree of"fake equity,real debt")and credit scale of related parties(degree of"equity tunneling").Based on the financial data of 1,586 urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks from 2010 to 2021,this paper empirically tests the correlation between capital quality indicators and risk preference of small and medium-sized banks,and deeply analyzes the possible impact of external economic environment and governance efficiency on this relationship.The results show that banks with lower capital quality will have a strong risk preference and choose lower capital buffer scale,which is more obvious in the downward economic environment,that is,insufficient capital quality will amplify the pro-cyclicality of bank's capital buffer.On the other hand,for small and medium-sized banks in the central and western regions with more severe external policy intervention and lower governance efficiency,the impact of declining capital quality on their risk preference is more significant compared to those in other regions,and this structural feature will be more obvious in the downward cycle.Based on the results of empirical research and some policies that have been issued by the regulatory authorities,I put forward the policy implementation ideas that can be further paid attention to and improved in the next stage.
Once CBDC cross-border use is granted policy permission and legal authorization,and has a more relaxed market environment and mature technical conditions,the scope of CBDC cross-border testing is expected to gradually expand and shift towards substantive applications.The risks of CBDC cross-border application will pose new challenges to the traditional international financial regulatory network.Therefore,it is necessary to put CBDC international regulatory coordination research on the agenda.This paper discusses the cutting-edge research results on international competition and regulation of CBDC from three aspects based on existing literature,policy trends,and international agendas.Firstly,based on the latest literature on the international agenda of CBDC at home and abroad,it summarizes and sorts out the potential risks of cross-border application of CBDC,including international competition and potential conflicts,legal and regulatory risks,and global governance risks.The second is to comprehensively analyze the regulatory exploration practices of CBDC cross-border application projects promoted or studied by important international financial organizations from three dimensions:fundamental principles,design selection,and cross-border application testing of CBDC.Thirdly,in response to the potential risks of cross-border use of CBDC and international regulatory shortcomings,four key issues were discussed:CBDC will introduce uncertainty to the traditional international monetary system;The fragmentation risk of CBDC will increase the difficulty of financial governance;CBDC will pose new threats to financial security and stability;Cross-border applications of CBDC will face conflicts of jurisdiction.This paper believes that the development of CBDC needs to be based on a deep international consensus foundation,relatively complete technical standards,and a relatively complete international regulatory environment.At present,research and discussions on international coordination of CBDC should be strengthened to prevent new financial governance risks caused by the cross-border use of CBDC,and even cause significant damage to the existing international monetary system,international financial markets,and international financial regulation.
The empowerment of Fintech in banks has changed the profit model of commercial banks,consequently affecting the risk-taking capacity of banks.Based on the textual analysis of annual reports of 150 Chinese commercial banks from 2011 to 2021,this paper uses entropy method to calculate the weight,so as to measure the Fintech level of commercial banks,and examines the impact of Fintech on the risk-taking of commercial banks.The empirical results show that commercial banks,by leveraging Fintech,can reduce the degree of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises,enhance the banks'project screening capabilities,and consequently reduce their risk-taking.Further analysis reveals that the impact of Fintech on banks'risk-taking level is more prominent in the sample of listed commercial banks,large-scale commercial banks,commercial banks in developed or highly market-perfected regions and subject to stronger external financial regulations.Therefore,encouraging commercial banks to develop Fintech and improve the Fintech system and regulatory system can more effectively enhance the ability of commercial banks to prevent risks and promote the sustainable development of the credit market.
本文以2011-2020年我国沪深A股非金融上市企业为样本,研究了机构交叉持股对企业资本结构调整速度的影响及其内在作用机制.研究发现,机构交叉持股能够加快上市企业资本结构调整速度;机制检验表明,机构交叉持股主要是通过监督治理、信息共享和压力控制机制对资本结构调整产生影响;进一步分析发现,机构交叉持股主要通过权益渠道加快资本结构向下调整.综上,机构交叉持股为企业资本结构调整提供了重要的外部治理渠道,为我国经济高质量发展提供了新思路.此外,本研究在一定程度上拓展了资本结构动态调整影响因素的相关研究,对企业稳杠杆的策略选择具有重要现实意义.
本文通过构建包含金融加速器机制的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,刻画了商业银行的动态运行机制,研究了七类碳减排政策对商业银行的影响.研究发现,七类政策通过金融加速器机制影响企业资产负债结构,通过资本金动态调整机制影响商业银行资产负债结构.脉冲响应结果表明,七类政策均有效激励了绿色企业、约束了棕色企业,促进了经济的绿色低碳转型.基于以上分析,本文提出如下建议:惩罚性碳减排政策会给商业银行带来一定风险,需谨慎使用;直接影响商业银行利润的绿色信贷贴息和棕色信贷罚息政策,影响程度远超直接影响企业利润的碳排放补贴和碳税政策,需小幅度渐进使用;各项碳减排政策需互相配合,一方面促进碳排放量降低,另一方面防止经济收缩和商业银行风险加剧.
在数字化转型浪潮中,商业银行越来越依靠大数据、人工智能和大模型等技术的结合,通过建立各类模型来实现智能获客、产品定价、风险内控、自动化决策等.模型的广泛应用一方面显著改善了客户体验,有效提升了管理精细化,大幅降低了内部管理成本;但与此同时,模型的广泛使用所带来的风险也在不断上升.本文针对模型风险日益上升的痛点问题,在梳理模型风险管理和监管经验的基础上,深入分析了模型潜在风险对管理形成的相关挑战,包括模型管理机制模糊、模型设计复杂、模型偏差易于衍化、模型基础设施薄弱、模型管控零散、模型人才匮乏等.本文尝试设计了模型风险管理的逻辑框架,从管理原则、业务场景、方法手段、模型数据等方面,搭建了体系化管理方法,并给出模型风险管理监管的改进建议,为数字化转型背景下商业银行的模型管理和风险防范提供了有益思路.
抑制实体企业"脱实向虚",促进民营中小企业"专精特新"发展,是推动经济高质量发展、构建新发展格局的有力支撑.本文以资管新规的实施作为准自然实验,以2015-2021年中小企业板块的制造业上市公司为研究样本,检验资管新规是否促进了中小企业"专精特新"发展.研究发现,资管新规可以促进金融化程度较高的制造业中小企业向"专精特新"发展,表明强化金融监管能够增强我国实体经济的韧性.进一步检验发现,对高管不过度自信的企业,以及政府创新补贴强度较高和数字金融发展水平较低地区的企业,资管新规促进企业"专精特新"发展的作用更显著.此外,资管新规促进企业"专精特新"发展的作用机制主要体现在对金融资产的反向挤出效应和对经营风险的规避效应.通过这些机制,可促进企业聚焦主营业务、严控经营风险,为创新研发提供稳固的基础条件.本文为政府进一步完善金融监管顶层设计、促进制造业中小企业的"专精特新"发展提供了参考.
传统金融分析框架受制于古典经济学的理论缺陷,难以对现代金融体系的运行规律及其风险特征进行准确的描述与分析.大数据理念和技术的发展为金融分析框架的完善提供了重要契机,其应用可以从以下三方面提高金融风险分析的前瞻性和有效性:在方法论方面,从海量数据中"归纳"出整个金融网络的动态全貌,以更好地理解金融风险的形成和传播路径;在金融风险识别方面,前瞻性地捕捉微观主体的行为特征、资金异动、特殊关联结构与金融风险之间的关系;在系统性风险防范方面,精准刻画金融网络中的重要节点、"涌现"特征以及演进态势,以助力对重大风险源的及时识别、监测与处置.
本文基于我国31个省、市、自治区(不含港澳台地区)2011-2021年的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型,从新兴数字金融科技公司的数字金融发展与传统银行的数字金融发展两个角度对比讨论了数字金融对金融集聚、实体经济发展的影响,并探讨了金融集聚在数字金融影响实体经济发展过程中的中介效应.研究发现:(1)新兴数字金融的发展对东、中、西部地区实体经济发展均具有较显著的正向促进作用,而传统银行的数字金融发展对实体经济的正向促进作用不显著;(2)金融集聚对实体经济的发展具有较强的正向促进作用,在数字金融促进实体经济发展过程中具有中介效应;(3)数字金融发展显著促进了金融集聚,且主要是由新兴数字金融发展引起,而传统银行数字金融发展对金融集聚的正向促进效应不显著,中介效应也不显著.本文建议各地区加大数字基础设施建设,加快数字金融发展,进一步推动金融集聚,发挥金融集聚的规模效应,促进地区实体经济的发展.
完备的ESG评级体系是实现我国"双碳"目标和引导资本市场绿色发展的重要抓手.本文以2018-2020年彭博和万得的ESG评级数据为样本,采用差异分解和权重估计等方法,实证分析了ESG评级差异细分机制.研究发现:彭博和万得的ESG评级在分项E的指标得分和赋权上具有较强的一致性,分项S的指标得分相对权重差异较大,分项G的权重差异贡献率较高;两家ESG评级均具有较强的时间效应和行业异质性,而在区域异质性方面,彭博ESG评级较弱.
在中央对自由贸易试验区改革"先行先试"的政策指导下,我国自由贸易试验区可尝试摸索金融数据出境的治理对策.文章通过梳理我国金融数据出境的立法规制,对比部分自贸协定中金融部门数据跨境流动的情况,发现我国相应立法规制体系不足.以上海市自由贸易试验区治理金融数据出境为例,治理措施落地困难、相关规定不合理地突破上位法等问题,极易造成不可控风险威胁国家安全.因此,设计出以金融数据价值目标为导向的"交通枢纽"数据流通制度,能对有出境要求的金融数据有效分流.建议将国内行政法中的比例原则纳入网络安全审查制度,并作为"交通枢纽"数据流通制度的自我完善机制;探索央地合作模式,列明分类分级出境清单,积极拓展对外合作圈以及统一接口标准和明确责任主体.借助自由贸易试验区的改革试点,探索金融数据出境治理制度,将该制度推广至全国,使其在未来国际规则制定中彰显中国智慧、确立先发优势.
为了实现既定的经济增长目标,地方政府会积极干预金融资源配置.文章将经济增长目标作为"有为政府"干预金融市场的代理变量,通过研究我国2003-2019年290个地级市的经济增长目标数据,得出以下结论:经济增长目标降低了金融发展深度,与金融机构贷款规模呈倒U型关系.异质性分析表明,地方政府财政压力会增强经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响,而市场化水平的提高和经济发展转型则能降低经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响.进一步研究发现,经济增长目标通过降低金融资源配置效率和挤出流向工业及商业领域的贷款影响地方金融发展.本研究拓展了有关金融发展中"有为政府"与"有效市场"关系的认识,对深化金融供给侧结构性改革、助推经济高质量发展具有一定参考价值.
文章将银行流动性约束分为名义流动性约束和实际流动性约束,并使用2011-2021年我国236个低线城市的微观数据,实证研究了结构性货币政策通过流动性约束渠道对低线城市宏观杠杆率产生的影响.研究发现:(1)相较于全国性商业银行的低线城市分支行,地方法人银行的实际流动性约束更大.地方法人银行和地方政府联系紧密,更易扩张政府信用和房地产抵押规模,对商业信用和宏观杠杆结构带来影响.(2)结构性货币政策有助于降低低线城市政府信用和房地产抵押在银行信用载体中的占比,促使信贷流向普惠金融群体,稳定宏观杠杆率,提升商业银行流动性管理能力可促进这一积极作用综上,文章建议增强商业银行流动性管理与结构性货币政策间的协调,扩展地方法人银行的内部流动性对冲空间,注重结构性货币政策与区域性财政政策和政府担保间的协调搭配.
金融科技发展既为金融业效率提升注入了新的活力,也从金融体系汲取资金获得了自身发展,但也带来了新风险和"伪创新"等乱象.文章基于省级面板数据测度金融业效率,对金融科技发展与金融业效率之间的互动关系进行了深入探讨.研究发现:(1)二者存在互动效应,金融科技对金融业效率既有促进作用,也有抑制作用,而金融业效率对金融科技只存在负向影响;(2)金融科技主要通过促进金融业技术进步,推动金融业效率提升;(3)金融科技对我国东部地区金融业效率的促进作用小于中西部地区;(4)金融科技对金融业效率的影响存在双重门槛,且在低于第一门槛值时作用为负,高于第二门槛值时作用为正,两个门槛值之间作用不显著.基于上述结论,文章提出如下建议:完善金融科技基础设施,加强监管,对金融科技企业准入和业务标准实行严格把控,以形成金融科技行业发展与金融业效率提升的良好互动.
本文以2007-2021年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,对董事高管责任保险与信息披露质量的关系进行了检验.研究发现:上市公司引入董事高管责任保险后信息披露质量得到显著提升,说明董事高管责任保险作为外部治理机制,能够发挥治理效应,且经过一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立.机制分析表明,董事高管责任保险能够通过缓解代理冲突来提升上市公司信息披露质量.进一步分析发现,当上市公司的内外部治理机制较完善时,董事高管责任保险对信息披露质量的提升效果更好.文章从信息披露质量视角探索了董事高管责任保险的治理作用,为我国规范公司治理和信息披露提供了新思路,也为政府推广此险种提供了经验支持.
在重大风险跨境、跨行业传染特征显著的背景下,本文基于行业进出口数据构建了实体行业风险指标,基于主要实体行业对应的股指数据构建了行业性金融风险指标,同时引入银行业、多元金融业和保险业等金融子行业的风险指标,计算实体行业与金融部门之间的风险传染效应.本研究初步结论为:不同实体行业之间存在非对称风险溢出效应,且实体行业风险溢出效应大于其自身吸收的风险溢入效应;同时,金融部门子行业之间也存在显著的非对称性风险传染效应,实体行业相应金融板块具有显著风险溢出效应,而银行、保险等金融子行业具有明显的风险溢入效应.进一步看,实体行业较高的进出口风险溢出效应,加剧了股票市场相应行业板块指数震荡,显著提高了金融体系中行业性金融风险的波动水平;另一方面,银行、保险、多元金融等部门的资产规模和配置机制,使得金融市场风险进一步在金融部门之间传染并得到分担.在国际重大风险事件冲击下,实体行业与金融部门的风险交互传染效应显著增强.本文建议,从更加细分的行业层面建立风险监测指标,提高宏观经济政策预期调控与沟通的一致性,以及降低资本市场板块对实体行业风险的过度反应.
为应对复杂经济金融环境下跨境资本流动对金融体系的影响,2016年起人民银行正式将差别准备金动态调整机制"升级"为宏观审慎评估,我国宏观审慎评估体系逐渐完善.本文选取2010-2020年我国42家上市银行的面板数据,实证分析了基于宏观审慎视角下跨境资本流动对银行稳定性的影响及作用机制.结果表明:第一,跨境资本流动总体对银行稳定性具有负向效应,降低了银行稳定性;跨境直接投资则增强了银行稳定性;跨境间接投资弱化了银行稳定性.第二,资产价格和流动性错配在跨境资本流动和银行稳定性之间具有中介效应.第三,宏观审慎政策工具在跨境资本流动和银行稳定性之间具有调节效应.其中,宽松型宏观审慎政策工具有利于跨境直接投资对银行稳定性的促进作用,紧缩型宏观审慎政策工具则弱化了跨境间接投资对银行稳定性的不利影响.综上所述,本文提出如下建议:一是加强有效宏观审慎监管;二是对跨境资本流动实施分类监管.三是完善宏观审慎政策工具箱,针对不同类别跨境资本流动施以相应宏观审慎政策工具.
