Ensuring the sustainability of agriculture-related industries requires not only expanding value added but also maintaining stable value creation and adaptive capacity under changing economic conditions. This study examines the economic and organizational sustainability of China’s agriculture-related industries within global value chains. Using the 2026 release of the OECD Analytical Activities of Multinational Enterprises database and ownership-split inter-country input–output tables for 2011–2023, we construct an ownership-disaggregated value-added accounting framework covering the production, processing, and circulation stages and apply structural decomposition analysis to identify the sources of value-added change and potential weak links. The results show that domestic demand is the principal source of value creation for both domestic-owned and foreign-owned enterprises and became increasingly important over the study period. Final-goods-related value added remains larger than intermediate-goods-related value added, although the latter grows more rapidly, indicating deeper participation in cross-border production networks. Structural exposure varies across stages and periods. Production is strongly supported by domestic demand but exhibits pronounced internal offsetting in some periods; processing becomes a major adjustment node during 2019–2020, while circulation records the clearest contraction in the same period before returning to a more balanced growth structure during 2020–2023. Foreign-owned enterprises, particularly in processing, become increasingly embedded in China’s domestic market and local production structure. Risk exposure is interpreted as structural sensitivity rather than a direct measure of risk probability or expected loss. The findings highlight the importance of domestic demand, diversified input and market linkages, greater stability and adaptability in processing and circulation, and well-governed cross-ownership relationships for sustainable value-chain development.

党的二十大报告所强调的"有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动",客观上要求科学测度绿色GDP中碳减排的阶段性和有效性.本文基于情景分析技术和绿色GDP核算理论,测算了我国绿色GDP的变动趋势.研究发现:(1)加入 WTO后,中国参加全球碳减排治理进入新阶段.Ⅰ阶段(2002～2012年),中国为全球碳减排治理的被动接受者,Ⅱ阶段(2012～2030 年),中国为全球碳减排治理的积极参与者.以上两阶段可进一步细分为:Ⅰ.1 阶段(2002～2008 年),碳排放爆发阶段;Ⅰ.2 阶段(2008～2012年),碳排放空中加油阶段;Ⅱ.1 阶段(2012～2020 年),碳排放降速换挡阶段;Ⅱ.2 阶段(2020～2030年),碳达峰阶段;(2)只有在低碳排放情景下,我国方可实现 2030 年碳达峰目标.在低碳排放情景下,技术进步是增强经济韧性的关键,实现绿色转型需要消费、投资、出口"三驾马车"合力发挥作用;(3)新时代碳减排治理的关键在于构建以零碳电力发展为目标的绿色能源供应体系,其中,建立高耗能半导体产业与新能源产业链、创新链的高效耦合机制尤为重要.

This paper compares the efficiency of innovation between the first and the new tier cities.The main conclusions are as follows:in terms of comprehensive innovation,Shenzhen,Shanghai and Beijing constitute the leading type,Guangzhou,Hangzhou,Suzhou,Nanjing and Ningbo constitute the forefront type,Wuhan,Dongguan,Changsha and Chengdu as the superior type,Chongqing,Xi’ an,Tianjin,Zhengzhou,Qingdao,Shenyang and Kunming as the pursuing type;the knowledge innovation investment cities are divided into three categories,which are represented by Beijing,Nanjing and Wuhan,which are the first tier,and the second tier is composed of Shenzhen,Tianjin and Zhengzhou with characteristic development;technological innovation investment cities are divided into two categories:9 first-line and new first-line cities in Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration,such as Beijing,Shenzhen and Shanghai,and 10 new first-line cities in Wuhan,Chengdu and Xi’ an;the effective integration of knowledge-based and technological innovation is the key to promote urban comprehensive innovation,and the gap between Beijing and Shenzhen provides an excellent example.

利用CGE模型中不同宏观闭合选择的情景分析,本文检验了中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情冲击下多种宏观经济理论在中国的适用性问题.主要发现:(1)综合供给学派和现代货币主义学派观点可解释供给冲击压力,中美贸易摩擦、新冠肺炎疫情、偏重投资等形成供给冲击压力诱因;(2)古典学派和新古典学派对中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情形成供给冲击压力有着不完全一样的解读,全球化背景下中国企业通过市场机制对冲中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情对供给冲击产生的消极影响,而应对新冠肺炎疫情则需要政府作用的适当发挥;(3)中美贸易摩擦与新冠肺炎疫情所造成的产业链断链断供冲击对经济下行压力影响远超中美贸易战的关税壁垒,需要引起足够重视.本文政策启示:(1)逆周期调节与跨周期协同对冲市场预期转弱趋势,沉着应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击和中美贸易摩擦挑战;(2)畅通国内国际经济循环,实现供给与需求在更高水平上的均衡;(3)让金融回归服务实体经济本源,促进金融、科技、产业良性循环.

Resource misallocation is one of the important manifestations of agricultural supply-side distortion and an important causal factor that hinders food production increase and affects food security. Did the COVID-19 pandemic intensify China’s food production misallocation? The extent and consequences require quantitative assessment and scenario analysis. In this paper, we use a combination of input-output model and computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, and further incorporate the most important input factor in agriculture—intermediate inputs—into the model. At the same time, simulation of the pandemic impact from the demand and supply sides, respectively, and scenario analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s food production. The results of the study show that: first, compared with the baseline level before the epidemic, the overall TFP growth of China’s food industry chain decreased, and the TFP growth rate of the food distribution sector decreased most significantly. Second, there are significant factor misallocation distortions of capital, labor, and intermediate inputs. Third, in the short term, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in the vitality of the national labor market, but the return of non-farm employed labor in rural areas instead reduced the degree of labor misallocation in the food sector. Fourth, the demand side has a greater impact on China’s food production, among which the consumer demand has a particularly strong impact on the resource allocation of food production, and the short-term shock will mainly have a more obvious impact on the allocation of labor factors and the allocation of intermediate input factors in the food industry chain. Accordingly, this paper proposes that in order to guarantee China’s food security and adapt to the short-term characteristics of the era when the COVID-19 pandemic is rampant, China should make efforts in four areas: rational allocation of food production resources and factors, solid construction of the whole food industry chain, stable guarantee of the food market system and transfer to enhance social expectations.

2021年中央经济工作会议作出我国经济正面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力的战略判断."三重压力"是百年未有之大变局下市场主体供需行为及其未来预期的现实写照.结构性经济增长演化效应、地方政府债务累积效应、资源要素错配效应、通货膨胀组合效应、国内外资本流动效应分别构成"三重压力"的机理性、体制性、制度性、价值性和资本性基础.破解"三重压力"的路径包括逆周期调节与跨周期调节协同、畅通国内国际经济循环、让金融回归服务实体经济本原、稳步推进共同富裕、坚持"双碳"目标约束、加快共建"一带一路"等.

Abstract This paper measures and analyzes the characteristics of changes in agricultural carbon emissions, structure and intensity from 2005 to 2020 based on agricultural input-output data, explores the drivers of agricultural carbon emissions using the LMDI model, and uses the TAPIO decoupling model to explore the relationship between agricultural economic development and agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu province. The research indicate that: (1) From 2005 to 2020, the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province showed a three-stage change of "decline - rise - decline", with an average annual decrease of 0.34%; Carbon emissions per 10,000 yuan of total agricultural output value decreased from 701.43 kg in 2005 to 215.96 kg in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 7.55%. (2) The factors of agricultural production efficiency, agricultural production structure and agricultural labor scale all contribute to agricultural carbon emission reduction to different degrees, while the factors of agricultural economic level and total population contribute to agricultural carbon emission reduction to different degrees. (3) The decoupling elasticity index of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic level in Jiangsu Province lies between -3.3217 and 3.6546, and the decoupling types are mainly weak and strong decoupling. According to our research results, agricultural production efficiency should be improved, the structure of the plantation industry should be optimized, and the transfer of agricultural labor to secondary and tertiary industries should be promoted in order to promote high-quality development of agriculture.

Scientific measurement and analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs) and the influencing factors are important prerequisites for the formulation of reasonable ACEs reduction policies. Compared with previous studies, this paper fully considers the heterogeneity of rice carbon emission coefficients, measures and analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of ACEs in Jiangsu Province from three carbon sources, including agricultural land use, rice cultivation, and livestock and poultry breeding, and explores spatial clustering patterns and driving factors, which can provide a reference for agricultural low-carbon production. The results indicate that from 2005 to 2020, Jiangsu’s ACEs showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.32%, while agricultural carbon emission density (ACED) showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 0.16%. The area with the highest values for ACEs is concentrated in the northern region of Jiangsu, while the areas with the highest values for ACED are distributed in the southern region. The spatial clustering characteristics of ACEs have been strengthening. The “H-H” agglomeration is mainly concentrated in Lianyungang and Suqian, while the “L-L” agglomeration is concentrated in Zhenjiang, Changzhou, and Wuxi. Each 1% change in rural population, economic development level, agricultural technology factors, agricultural industry structure, urbanization level, rural investment, and per capita disposable income of farmers causes changes of 0.112%, −0.127%, −0.116%, 0.192%, −0.110%, −0.114%, and −0.123% in Jiangsu’s ACEs, respectively. To promote carbon emission reduction in agriculture in Jiangsu Province, we should actively promote the development of regional synergistic carbon reduction, accelerate the construction of new urbanization, and guide the coordinated development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries industries.

长三角地区不仅是我国经济发展最活跃、开放程度最高的区域,而且也是我国绿色低碳发展的重点区域,对全国乃至全球都有示范性作用.通过构建2002—2017年拓展碳排放和碳治理的区域投入产出表,测度和比较了长三角地区苏浙皖沪三省一市基于双碳目标的绿色增加值演化趋势,得出相应结论为后续实现低碳绿色高质量发展提供思路.

扩大农村居民消费不仅是新发展格局下扩大内需战略基点的实施重点,而且是我国实现社会主义现代化国家建设目标中政府迫切解决的一个实际问题.文章从"重视弱者"的角度探讨政府转移支付政策对农村居民消费的影响,并利用中国农村居民消费社会核算矩阵进行政策模拟,分析政策冲击的影响效应和传导路径.研究发现:(1)"重视弱者"的转移支付政策有利于农村居民消费的总体提升;(2)其对农村居民食品、居住、教育、交通通信等消费的影响较大,而对医疗保健消费的影响较小;(3)从政策冲击的传导路径看,其对家庭设备及用品、居住、文教娱乐、医疗保健消费的影响主要依赖于点对点的直接路径传导,而对食品、衣着和交通通信消费的影响则存在着多样化的传导路径;(4)其沿着直接路径的传导速度和效果更为明显.基于此,文章从突出政策实施的精准性和有效性等实践层面出发,为新发展格局下扩大农村居民消费提供政策建议.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a weakening of expectations of market players and local governments. It is necessary to explore some effective paths to stabilize China’s market expectations. This paper draws on computable general equilibrium (CGE) model elasticity indicators and marginal utility indicators to simulate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on market agents and the impact of shocks brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic on various industry sectors. Our results first show that the Keynesian closure is still valid, with the impact values of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP, urban consumption, rural consumption, investment, imports, and exports being 2.35%, 7.96%, 9.79%, 4.10%, −3.13%, and 6.15%, respectively, with the COVID-19 pandemic shock having a particularly strong impact on rural consumption. Second, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on different industries is comprehensive and non-equilibrium. In consumption, urban and rural residents have the largest changes in consumption demand in the tertiary and primary industries, and the overall change in consumption of rural residents is larger than that of urban residents. In investment, the tertiary industry investment changes most significantly, while the primary industry has a gentle change. The impact of weaker import and export expectations on industry imports and exports is concentrated in the secondary and primary industries. Third, the weakening expectation induces a decline in the multiplier effect, making it difficult for economic growth to return to pre-pandemic levels, which needs to be accompanied by fiscal policies such as reducing taxes, lowering fees, and raising fiscal spending to achieve growth targets. In addition, while fiscal policy significantly boosts import and export trade, it has a significantly greater impact on exports than imports.

传统经济理论普遍认为环境规制的实施会直接增加企业的整体生产成本,从而导致企业销售利润的降低.而"波特假说"则提出环境规制对企业整体效益的影响并不是单一负面的,环境技术创新提高的生产效益可能弥补治理污染所投入的成本,进而提升企业核心竞争力并可能获得高于预期的收益.本文构建了环境规制与企业技术创新之间关系的理论模型,利用2008～2019年我国30个主要省市的面板统计数据,实证检验了环境规制与技术创新间的门槛效应,并检验了"波特假说".主要研究结论为:(1)就全国总体情况而言,环境规制与地区技术创新存在显著的正"U"型关系;(2)环境规制对地区技术创新的影响存在区域异质性,东、中地区较为显著,而西部地区则不显著;(3)环境规制对技术创新的作用依赖于区域经济发展水平,只有当经济发展水平达到一定门槛值以后,环境规制才能促进技术创新.

全国和分省收入法GDP核算显示2004年和2009年前后我国劳动与资本收入的配比存在显著的间断点,并能通过面板门槛模型检验,本文尝试采用要素错配来解释这一现象.研究发现:一方面,在要素错配程度方面,我国资本要素和劳动要素错配程度在2004年发生了大幅下降,而在2009年以后又有较大回升;另一方面,在要素错配的贡献方面,同样是在2004年劳动要素的扭曲贡献大幅上升,在2009年后发生下降.我国要素错配大幅变化年份刚好与要素分配间断点年份吻合.由此推测,一方面,要素错配程度与要素分配关系存在关联,通过复杂的生产函数及实际和潜在TFP所测算得到的要素错配情况与简单通过收入法GDP核算的要素分配关系之间存在很强的一致性;另一方面,我国目前发展阶段在倾向于资本要素分配能带来更小的要素错配,GDP增速也同样佐证这一推论.

研究目标:在外部环境不确定且自身比较优势发生变化的背景下,研究全球生产链重构及其对中国经济增长和转型的影响.研究方法:基于OECD编制的ICIO数据库,利用结构分解方法和情景模拟法分析我国产业链重构及其对经济增长的影响.研究发现:世界经济整体关联程度在2005～2011年有所上升,在2011～2015年变化并不显著.2008年爆发的金融危机和2011年涌现的逆全球化对于全球产业链重构的影响有所不同.在2011～2015年,中国经济普遍出现国产中间品代替进口中间品的现象,使得对外关联度下降的同时,内部关联度呈现大幅度上升趋势.旺盛的国内需求是驱动中国经济增长的主要源泉,但生产链重构对经济增长产生了正面影响.研究创新:基于中间品的进口替代视角,探讨全球生产链重构给中国经济增长和转型带来的影响,同时考虑加工贸易和非加工贸易两种生产组织方式的差异.研究价值:对于中国经济整体转型和产业升级,促进可持续增长具有重要意义.

Increasing marginal rate of transformation (MRT) in production is a generally accepted economic presumption. So how to reflect the increasing MRT in linear and non-linear production functions? However, in Leontief’s input-output model, it is assumed that production is performed on a fixed proportion of inputs and usually leads to the constant MRT. This paper analyzes the linear output possibility frontier under the Leontief production function in detail, the author tried to fix this problem by considering the non-unique primary inputs in a simplified two-sector economy. Then we discuss the production possibility frontier under the assumption of nonlinear production function: First, when there are many primary inputs (heterogeneity) constraints, it is possible to curve the net output possibility frontier of Leontief production function and make it meet the assumption of increasing MRT. Second, in the intertemporal production process, a total output possibility frontier with increasing MRT can be obtained under a general production function without the assumption of non-unique primary inputs.

Input-output (Leontief) production function is widely used in economic analysis. And diminishing marginal rate of return is a very well accepted economic fact. Leontief production function normally results in a linear production possibility frontier (PPF) due to its linear feature, whereas diminishing marginal rate of return implies a non-linear PPF. In this paper, the authors aim to fix this problem by considering multiple primary inputs in a simplified two-sector economy. The authors find that it is possible to curve a non-linear PPF by using Leontief production function when the authors add heterogeneous primary inputs. The authors also discuss the PPF using non-linear production function. Furthermore, the authors propose that three commonly used economic presumptions cannot hold in the same framework. These presumptions are “single primary input”, “fixed-proportion inputs” and “law of diminishing marginal returns”.

China's 40-year history of reform and opening-up includes rapid economic development as well as pollution and environmental governance. Using a four-stage division, this study explores the evolution trend and structural decomposition of China's green value-added by constructing a non-competitive input-output table for environmental pollution from 1978 to 2017. The results indicate that pollution production coefficients increased continuously, and the green value-added index decreased. Additionally, the structural decomposition showed that investment and export were critical for economic growth during the period, though they were accompanied by serious pollution problems. The pollution generated by the raw material (represented by coal mining) and processing industries (represented by the textiles) were not controlled effectively. Pollution treatment for these industries should be strengthened in the future. The study has implications for government officials, policy makers, and academics. First, China should make green development a core concept for economic development, increase environmental pollution governance, develop a “green GDP,” incorporate the external costs of environmental pollution into the national economic accounting system. Second, it must change the investment and export structure as well as the traditional economic development pattern that exacerbates pollution. Specifically, the country should develop industries with low pollution and promote the export of industries producing high value-added products and increase green GDP per capita. Third, it should closely monitor the development of highly polluting industries. Upgrading technology to reduce pollution and strengthening pollution treatment will reduce the number of polluting industries and improve environmental governance efficiency.

经济高质量发展是结构优化、动能转换、效率提升的有机统一.高技术产业高质量发展必然呈现对自主创新驱动的更加依赖、对要素供给质量的更高要求以及产业内部结构的更加合理化等特征.实证检验结果显示,从总体上看,全要素生产率提高是推动高技术产业发展的关键因素;尽管R&D资本投入总量不断上升,但其要素贡献率和配置结构效应仍较低.从产业内部结构看,计算机及办公设备制造业对高技术产业的影响呈现大幅下降趋势,甚至出现“结构负利”的现象,相比之下,电子信息及通信设备制造业的正向技术效应影响更为明显.因此,一方面,要不断优化物质资本投入结构,提高投入质量,另一方面,要进一步提升相关行业的技术水平及国际影响力和竞争力.

本文采用DEA-Malquist指数法测算了2002～2018年苏南地区全要素生产率(TFP)演化趋势,同时基于"反事实"框架,测算了要素扭曲以及部门扭曲对苏南地区TFP配置扭曲的贡献程度,得到主要研究结论:(1)苏南地区经济增长降速换挡的同时,TFP稳步增长,创新引领优势明显;(2)苏南地区TFP增长主要依赖于高技术部门TFP的推动,而传统部门对TFP稳定作用显著;(3)苏南地区要素配置扭曲状况略微改善,但尚不足以满足新时代对苏南地区国家自主创新示范的引领作用要求;(4)尽管资本要素扭曲一直是苏南地区要素配置扭曲的主要贡献者,但已呈现逐步改善态势,然而,劳动要素扭曲却越来越成为重要力量;(5)苏南五市要素配置效率排名依次为苏州、无锡、南京、常州以及镇江,但南京作为省会城市和科教大市,潜在TFP遥遥领先.

投资在中国经济增长中发挥着关键作用,而占固定资产投资四分之一左右的基建投资,在熨平短期经济波动、推动长期经济增长方面贡献更为明显.本文从“传统基建”和“新基建”的内涵、外延和统计角度出发,研究了中国投资乘数和基建投资在中国的重要性.主要研究结论:第一,投资乘数在理论上与人均资本存量、资本产出弹性以及实际利率水平相关.第二,中国经济发展阶段决定了中国总体投资乘数明显低于OECD大部分国家,资本产出弹性较高和人均资本存量水平相对较低,说明中国固定资产投资仍有一定的提升空间.第三,包含“信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业”和“卫生和社会工作”的“新基建”投资乘子与OECD等发达国家相当,且中国“新基建”部门占固定资产投资的比重较低,显示出当前适度推出“新基建”政策非常必要.为贯彻落实“新基建”政策,提出以下政策建议:一是改革创新,扩大“新基建”投资占比;二是因城施策,调整“新基建”投资区域;三是合理布局,优化“新基建”投资结构.