党和国家历来重视科技创新工作,从国家发展战略全局谋划科技强国建设.党的十九大提出加快建设创新型国家和世界科技强国的战略目标.党的十九届五中全会把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑,加快建设科技强国.党的二十大报告提出要坚持创新在我国现代化建设全局中的核心地位,二〇三五年实现高水平科技自立自强.科学技术是第一生产力,创新是引领发展的第一动力.实现建成社会主义现代化强国的伟大目标,实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦,我们必须具有强大的科技实力和创新能力,发挥科技强国建设在社会主义现代化强国建设中的引领支撑作用.

技术预测是科技管理部门的一项基础性工作,系统梳理中国技术预测理论研究进展,对更好地开展中国技术预测实践发展具有重要意义.本文基于中文核心期刊数据库,利用CiteSpace可视化工具,对符合检索条件的关于技术预测研究的369 篇文献进行知识图谱分析,展现该研究领域从缓慢起步、稳步上升到平稳发展的过程.结果表明:发文机构内部作者之间形成了一定的合作网络,发文机构之间合作不明显,核心作者群尚未出现,文章集中在政府科技管理部门主管的期刊,研究内容除了对技术预测本质、特征等方面的理论探讨之外,还涉及国家层面、特定区域和不同行业的技术预见,其中对于德尔菲法的持续关注较为突出.

德国是欧洲率先开展体制化技术预测的国家,此后欧洲各国政府纷纷开展技术预测活动.2019年德国启动第三轮技术预测,聚焦21世纪 30 年代的技术和社会发展,对德国社会价值观的变化、未来的新议题和新趋势做出研判,并对教育和研究相关议题进行评估.分析德国第三轮技术预测的组织实施特点、工作内容和研究方法,可以为中国技术预测工作提供借鉴.中国技术预测应在"大预测观"、"大预测体系"、预测方法和预测成果应用等方面予以加强.

近年来,随着全球贸易摩擦持续加剧,半导体作为信息产业的基石成为各国竞争的焦点. 2022年8月,美国发布《芯片与科学法案》,投资半导体产业发展,重振制造业.相较于第一代和第二代半导体材料,以氮化镓(GaN)、碳化硅(SiC)为代表的第三代半导体材料因其高频、耐高压、耐高温、抗辐射能力强等优越性能,在培育战略性新兴产业、带动高技术产业发展、保障国计民生和国防安全等方面具有重要作用.

世界格局变迁和工业革命发展是后发国家实现科技赶超,建成世界科技强国的重要历史机遇.德国因引领第二次工业革命而建成世界科技强国;美国抓住第二次工业革命和两次世界大战机遇,赶超欧洲建成世界科技强国并引领第三次工业革命;日本抓住第二三次工业革命交汇的机遇,成功加入世界科技强国之列.从经济崛起到科技赶超,从技术引进到原始创新,从教育改革到科学发展,从自发创新到体系建设,德美日三国经过赶超,均形成了内生技术能力,持续性建设人才队伍,推动科技创新和制度创新,并注重发挥国立科研机构的引领作用.据此,提出中国科技自立自强、科教融合、科技开放合作和国家战略科技力量体系建设等方面相关建议.

National technology foresight has been playing an important role of national science and technology decision-making, which provides support for formulating national science and technology policies and development strategies, selecting priority development areas, and determining the direction of R＆D investment, and lays a foundation for the formulation of science and technology planning.National critical technology selection and technology foresight has gone through 40 years, accumulated rich practical experience, and provided good materials for technology foresight research.Retrospective reviewing six national technology foresight in China, can be found that each stage of technology foresight practice has distinctive characteristics.The process system has been constantly improved and the methodology has been continuously optimized, which has gradually become a basic work of science and technology management departments.However, it also faces many problems and challenges.It is necessary to further improve the normalized technology foresight mechanism, strengthen social communication and exchange functions, emphasize vision and demand orientation, and improve methodology system to improve the institutionalization and standardization of technology foresight.

韩国《第六次技术预测调查第一年度报告》提出了2045年经济社会的发展趋势和技术需求.在实践过程中,韩国注重以技术预测调查推进体系的完整性,不断优化调查方法,强化科学技术与社会需求之间的联系.本文在总结韩国技术预测的组织架构、实施流程与调查方法基础上,系统描述了韩国第六次技术预测的最新特征,并提出完善我国技术预测工作的思考.

从19世纪末至20世纪初德国成为世界科学中心,从第二次世界大战后的废墟再次跻身世界科技强国之列,德国根据独特国情和所处发展阶段,将内外压力转变为动力,进行教育改革、构建极具特色的国家创新体系,适时发布和实施一系列创新战略和举措,依靠科技实现国家的跨越式发展.

全球正处于快速变迁的时代,科技的发展伴随着社会系统与生态环境的交互作用而日趋复杂化,使得未来的社会、经济及科技的不确定性大为提高,需要用系统性的思维与方法对于未来的发展进行预测与评估.从上世纪80年代开始,中国已经开展了6次规模化国家技术预测,积累了丰富的实践经验,为中国情境下的技术预测研究提供了良好的素材.在回顾中国6次大规模国家技术预测的基础上,从国家创新体系、技术预测工作机制、技术预测体系和方法等不同视角研究分析了中国逐步形成的国家、部门、区域和企业多层次的技术预测体系,以及"愿景、评价、预测、选择、路线图"并贯穿始终的监测预警在内的技术预测流程机制.在此基础上,需要进一步完善国家技术预测体系,优化技术预测方法,形成常态化的国家技术预测研究机制,提升技术预测可靠性和科学性.

Exploring the level of technological competition and its influencing factors is the basis for further understanding of technology catch-up in the latecomer countries. Faced with the uncertainty and complexity of technological development, experts rely on their accumulated knowledge and experience to judge the gap between leading technology countries, which is an important part of the evaluation of technological competitiveness. Different expert groups, work experience, and technical knowledge background have a significant impact on the judgment of technology gap, especially the overseas high-level experts will be more inclined to make conservative estimates. Therefore, we should not only pay attention to the technological competition evaluation based on experts' qualitative judgment but also improve the effectiveness of the research results by optimizing the structure of experts.

Since 2000, a relatively complete system for environmental science and technology has been established. However, there are no clear quantitative results on the exact level of China’s current environmental technology. This research has established a three-dimension technological evaluation model consisting of longitudinal technological gap judgment, horizontal technological level comparison and indepth technological development stage analysis. The results show that China’s environmental technologies have formed the basic pattern of leading, parallel and tracking. Nearly half of China’s technologies are in the pilot trial stage, while the technological leading countries are mainly concentrated in the industrialization stage. It’s not easy to support the construction of national ecological civilization.

梳理技术预测工作的理论和方法基础,系统总结韩国第五次技术预测工作中的理论创新、方法创新和内容创新,对我国技术预测工作提出有关建议.

Cultivating innovation ecosystem is a pemanent solution for development of "the Belt and Road" overseas industrial park.Innovation ecosystem in general goes through four stages:newborn stage,growth stage,maturity stage,and reborn stage.At newborn stage,the major objective and task is to create a good innovation environment;at growth stage,it is to raise abundant innovation communities;at maturity stage,it is to cultivate fluent innovation relationship;and at reborn stage,is to coordinate relevant parties to reach a new consensus on "the Belt and Road" overseas industrial park's future.Five pairs of contradictions need to be properly dealt with in order to cultivate innovation ecosystem in "the Belt and Road" overseas industrial park.

In order to find out the competitiveness of China's marine technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China launched the technology evaluation project covering marine technology fields. Based on the experts investigation, the paper analyses the technology development trend, level and stage of marine technology field. It focus on the comparative analysis between China and technological leading countries. The results shows that the gap is narrowing, and some technologies are in leading group, most of them still in the following stage. There are less original marine technologies provided by China, and the level of industrialization is low in China. It's not easy to support the construction of world marine technology power.

兰德公司是世界最著名的智库之一,拥有一支多学科、高水平的人才队伍,建立了一批数据中心,形成了一系列独特的研究方法,拥有一套完善的质量控制体系,完成了大批高质量的战略咨询报告.我们系统分析了兰德公司的150多份研究报告,重点研读了30多份有代表性的研究报告,并通过典型案例认真研究了兰德公司的研究方法与管理模式,对照我国科技智库建设,特别是技术预测工作,形成了对兰德公司研究方法、创新模式的做法与特点的初步认识,以及对我国科技智库建设的启示.

简要阐述了全球科技创新中心发展呈现的新态势,结合北京作为传统科技中心地位下降的时代背景,分析了北京市发展金融科技的必要性和紧迫性,并提出了促进金融科技创新发展的对策建议.

探究技术未来发展趋势及其影响因素是深入理解后发国家技术赶超的基础.本文利用制造技术领域的技术预测问卷调查数据,实证研究知识产权限制如何影响我国技术未来发展格局变化.研究结果表明:技术受到专利制约不利于实现技术赶超;技术研发基础则对我国技术追赶产生了显著的正向影响效应,而且与专利制约联合影响下,正向影响非常明显.进一步的分析指出,技术追赶受到专利制约的影响呈现U型关系,专利制约超过拐点后将会对技术追赶呈显著正向影响.本文为理解后发国家未来技术发展格局变化、实现技术赶超提供了新的视角,对更好认识技术能力积累、辩证理解国际技术竞争也具有一定启发意义.

In March 2017, South Korea released the "fifth technology forecasting work report". This paper systematically describes the implementation background, methods, implementation flows and main contents of the fifth technology forecasting in South Korea, and introduces some forecasting results, such as 5 development directions in future society, 40 development trends, 20 major problems, 10 recent technologies that could be achieved, 13 technologies with foreign synchronization, 10 most important technologies, and the diffusion time of 24 innovative technologies. Then, the it sums up the major characteristics proposed to strengthen legislation, establish technology forecasting research platform and other recommendations to the next round of China's technology forecasting.

The globalization operation of enterprises is changing the future of global economy. Enterprises of developing countries are not competitive in globalization innovation, but there are still a part of enterprises exploring the R&D of global innovation, such as Hua-wei, the case enterprise in the paper. In this paper, the global innovation and model selection of high-tech innovation enterprises repre-sented by Huawei are analyzed. In the aspects of product innovation and technology innovation, Huawei has developed to independent R&D from agency, international advanced from imitation and follow, international leading from domestic leading, and global leading from international advanced; Huawei keeps stretching on both ends in global value chain, constantly makes global layout for preponder-ant capacity, and develops a unique successful innovative cooperative globalization road.