以电子商务为代表的现代化商品流通渠道建设是当前农村经济发展的新动能.利用2013—2018年县域数据,以"电子商务进农村综合示范县"为自然实验,采用多期PSM-DID方法探讨了电商下乡对县域经济增长的影响.研究结果显示,电商下乡对县域经济增长具有显著的促进作用.异质性分析表明,电商下乡对中部、西部和东北地区县域经济增长具有显著的正向影响,对经济发展落后、财政依赖度高、信息化水平低以及产业结构不合理的县域具有更加明显的经济拉动效应.进一步研究发现,电商下乡推动了县域第一产业和第二产业的发展,且主要通过提高地区农业生产率、吸引企业进入以及改善融资环境产生影响.因此,应加快推进电子商务在农村的发展,把以电子商务为代表的现代流通渠道建设与电商下乡试点地区的特色农业和制造业相结合,进一步探索县域传统产业与数字经济的融合方式,以促进县域经济增长.

探究居民消费扩张的影响因素对于理解"双循环"战略布局具有重要的理论意义和现实紧迫性.文章从供给侧视角出发,分析互联网发展对于居民消费的影响,并分析传统供需体系的中间环节——流通产业的发展水平对于二者关系的调节作用.研究结论表明,互联网对于居民消费具有显著的正向促进作用,其中,以"互联网通过增加商品供应的多样性推动居民消费"的直接效应最为明显,还存在"通过降低价格水平促进消费"的价格间接效应以及"通过增加企业吸引力从而推动当地消费水平提升"的收入间接效应.同时,研究发现本地流通业专业化水平对于互联网的居民消费扩张作用主要表现为负向调节效应,这一定程度上反映出传统产业与新兴产业在双向融合过程中的转型阵痛.研究进一步指出,互联网的发展显著降低了地区之间消费不平等的问题,互联网普及率提高对于中部地区和西部地区的经济拉动最为显著.因此,要重视互联网等现代信息技术因素在推动消费市场扩张中的作用,尤其是欠发达地区要充分把握"新基建"的发展机遇,弥补本地传统流通体系阻塞的劣势.

本文基于高铁开通的准自然实验场景,选取2005～2015年中国上市公司数据,采用双重差分模型实证检验高铁开通对企业投资效率的影响,研究结果表明:高铁开通显著提升了沿线城市企业的投资效率,且主要表现为降低了投资不足;高铁开通对企业投资效率的影响在东部发达地区和非创新型行业更为显著.进一步研究发现,高铁开通对企业绩效产生了明显的促进效应.本文研究从微观企业层面拓展了高铁建设的经济后果研究,对国家加快高铁建设、优化高铁布局,进一步发挥交通基础设施建设的经济带动作用亦有借鉴意义.

本文以2004-2014年中国A股上市企业为样本,采用经济政策不确定性指数,探究了母国经济政策不确定性对企业对外直接投资决策的影响.研究结果表明:母国经济政策不确定性会对企业对外直接投资产生抑制作用,且这一负面的影响效应在融资约束较强的企业中更为明显;在考虑企业国际化发展战略后,发现母国经济政策不确定性的增加还会对企业对外直接投资的深度产生抑制作用.由此,本文进一步拓展了经济政策不确定性和企业对外直接投资领域的相关研究,为政府制定加快促进企业对外直接投资的政策措施以及企业进一步增强自身防范与化解外部风险的能力提供了重要的理论指导.

通过构建包括消费者异质性的零售需求模型,利用具有垄断地位的区域连锁零售企业的微观数据,使用贝叶斯估计方法对包含消费者偏好异质性的随机系数模型进行估计,并利用BLP模型对消费者需求模型进行估计.实证研究表明:地理便利性、品类服务、交付服务和环境服务对于消费者选择零售店铺的行为具有显著的影响;对于现有市场的零售商而言,应该将竞争和创新的重点放在交付服务、品类规模、品类选择、采购模式和经营模式等方面;对于即将进入市场的零售商,零售的选址仍然是关键,“小而精”的零售业态将更加有利于企业市场竞争.

利用285个城市层面的面板数据,运用空间计量模型实证分析了流通业发展对于本地经济增长的影响以及流通业发展的空间溢出效应.实证结果表明,流通业规模、流通业效率和流通业竞争水平的提高对本地经济发展有显著的正向促进作用;在以地理距离衡量城市之间的空间互动关系时,流通业发展表现出正向空间溢出效应,研究认为这主要得益于较低的贸易成本能够促进城市之间的贸易往来;当考察城市之间的经济联系和总体经济地理联系时,流通业发展呈现出显著的负向溢出效应,且负向溢出效应主要是通过流通业规模和效率产生影响的,研究认为这与经济发展的“虹吸效应”和企业异地投资的市场偏好有关.结论 表明,要充分重视流通产业对经济发展的影响,在鼓励本地流通业发展的同时,充分考虑流通业发展的区域协同和区域统筹,鼓励不同地区流通业的差异化发展和错位竞争,鼓励经济发展水平具有一定梯度的城市之间加强内贸合作.

利用2003～2013年沪深A股非金融类上市公司数据,实证检验了控股股东股权质押对企业创新的影响.研究表明:①控股股东股权质押抑制了企业创新;②相对于传统行业,控股股东股权质押对企业创新的影响在高科技行业更为显著;③细分产权性质后发现,相对于国有企业,控股股东股权质押对企业创新的抑制作用在非国有企业中更为显著;④考虑宏观货币政策影响后发现,相对于货币政策宽松期,在货币政策紧缩期,控股股东股权质押对企业创新的抑制作用更强.

The author explores how retail organizations match and respond to heterogeneous consumers'demand from such two dimensions as the retail organizations'format development and their competitive strategy.In particular,consumer's utility function is constructed,taking into account the existence of consumers'heterogeneity. And the author builds the economic relationship models of consumers and retailers'economic activities based on related theoretical researches. The author demonstrates how consumers' preference heterogeneity,as well as the non-observable individual heterogeneity,affects the evolution and development of retail organization's formats and the selections of competitive strategies between retail organizations.It is found that consumers'preference heterogeneity is the root cause of the emergence of new forms,along with the multi-formats structure of retail market.And unobservable individual heterogeneity directly adjusts the market share of each format and the retail organizations'selection of competitive strategies.According to the conclusions,the multi-format structure of retail market will be consolidated and strengthened in the future,and differentiated business strategy will replace the traditional price war,becoming the key to retail organizations'competition.

本文以2004-2014年我国A股非金融类上市公司为样本,研究宏观货币政策与微观企业融资约束对企业对外直接投资决策的影响.研究发现,货币政策越宽松,企业对外直接投资的可能性越大;在货币政策紧缩期,企业对外直接投资受融资约束的抑制作用更加明显.进一步研究发现,融资约束对企业对外直接投资的抑制作用在金融危机后更为显著;且企业所处地区市场化程度越低、企业资本密集度越高、企业所处行业为制造业、企业与银行不存在关联关系时,企业对外直接投资受融资约束负向影响越大.

Being the basic and leading industry of the national economy, distribution industry plays an important role in creating jobs. Sustainable foreign capital entry has tremendous shocks to China's distribution industry, thereby exerting very complex impacts on the employment in this industry. This paper theoretically discusses the direct and indirect effects of foreign capital entry on the employment in distribution industry, and verifies its total impact. Overall, the results of panel threshold regression model show that, FDI of distribution industry has a quasi funnel-shaped nonlinear effect on the employment in this industry:when the amount of FDI is less than 27.016 billion yuan, there is a crowding-out employment effect; when the amount of FDI is between 27.016 billion and 518.228 billion, there is no significant effect; and when the amount of FDI is above 518.228 billion, there is a positive effect in boosting the employment. Through the test of the effect of foreign capital entry on the employment in distribution industry, it further points out that foreign capital entry in distribution industry has effects on the employment mainly through commercial agglomeration effect, market competition effect, labor redistribution effect and circulation channel reconstruction effect, and the employment effect of foreign capital entry in distribution industry stems from the effect on domestic wholesale industry. It argues that we'd better attach importance to the employment traps of foreign capital entry in distribution industry, and during quite a long time, there is a negative crowing-out employment effect in most areas of China in distribution industry. This conclusion has certain significance to the attitudes and policies for attracting foreign capital in different regions, especially for the small cities and counties.

内容摘要:我国零售业经过多年的发展,当前正处于转型升级阶段,呈现全新的发展趋势.本文从业态、技术、经营、渠道、服务、管理等方面分析了我国零售业未来的发展趋势及特征.

2014年9月30日,中国人民银行与中国银监会联合出台《关于进一步做好住房金融服务工作的通知》,鼓励支持商业银行通过发行住房抵押贷款证券化(简称MBS)筹集资金以增加贷款投放,标志着我国全面放开住房抵押贷款证券化业务.由于住房抵押贷款证券化是一项庞大的系统工程,涉及多个参与主体和复杂的流程构造,从住房抵押贷款证券化方案设计的角度考虑,不可避免地存在诸多不确定性因素引发的风险.

出口企业的外贸转内销困境是当前内外贸一体化的核心问题,亦是实践中影响我国企业充分利用国内市场、实现资源优化配置的主要障碍.以商品流通渠道组织化程度为着眼点,本文具体分析了互联网经济下商品流通渠道的组织化程度对企业外贸转内销调整的影响机制,并对此进行了实证分析.本研究构建了“国际市场偏好”这一指标衡量企业外贸转内销调整的意愿和倾向,并构建动态面板模型进行分析.运用系统矩估计(System GMM)等方法对模型的估计结果表明:批发商规模越大,越有利于企业的外贸转内销调整;连锁零售商规模越大,则越不利于企业的外贸转内销调整;互联网的发展对企业的出口转内销调整具有负向影响;此外,互联网的发展会弱化批发商规模对企业外贸转内销调整的影响.

Transformation of traditional retailers becomes an important issue followed by both scholars and practitioners. Based on social networks perspective,the authors report a case study of Z supermarket in Wuhan. They analyze the transformation process of this company in depth;after that they put forward theoretical propositions about retail firms competitive advantage,and then establish a transformation strategy model for traditional retail companies. The research shows that retailers are linked with the production and consumption sectors,taking up the position of structural holes in social networks. Retailers should make full use of this favorable position,and try to gain the interests of information and controlling. By actively and effectively entering into the supplier value chain and customer lifestyle,retailers are able to enhance the connection strength with them,so as to improve its network centrality,become a core enterprise on the whole value chain and establish unique competitive advantage.

统筹城乡经济社会发展是党的十六届三中全会做出的关于全面建设小康社会的重要战略.建立以工促农、以城带乡长效机制,形成城乡经济社会发展一体化新格局是十七大强调的推进城乡经济社会协调发展的战略任务.所谓城乡统筹发展,就是要把农村与城市、农业与工业、农民与市民作为一个整体,纳入经济社会发展统一规划中去考虑,把城市和农村经济社会发展中存在的问题及其相互关系综合起来研究,统筹加以解决,实现城乡协调发展,要想解决好三农问题,夯实农业农村发展基础,就必须统筹城乡的发展.经济的发展离不开金融的支持,金融支持城乡统筹发展既包含支持城镇的建设和经济发展,又包括为农村城镇化建设和农业现代化发展提供资金保障.

文章同时运用新实证产业组织理论的垄断测度方法和财务分析方法,计算出中国三大石油企业在2008年一年所获得的垄断利润约为6 376-6 893亿元人民币,造成了消费者直接福利损失约1万亿元人民币.文章证实了之前学者的猜测:第一,三大石油企业确实通过垄断获取了超额利润;第二,计算结果和公开财务数据证实,三大石油企业通过内部采油部门向炼油部门转移利润来规避价格管制.目前国家采取的价格管制措施虽在成品油领域有效,但是不足以遏制原油开采环节的垄断行为.因此,文章建议应进一步推动石油天然气开采的市场化改革,取消形成垄断的审批限制和特权,引入竞争.

In real economic activities,the factors that affect consumer demand are not only price,but also the services provided by retailers and the quality of the product that provided by suppliers. For their own profits,the retailers and supplies are likely to cheat,which leads to the problem of bilateral moral hazard in the supply chain activities. The authors set a linear demand function in which demand are decided by price,service and quality and investigate the issue of optimal contract design in the case of supplier-dominant channel and retailer-dominant channel respectively. The results confirms that the linear contract can solve the problem of moral hazard,what’s more,it points out that the terminal retail price and the mode of channel fees have direct impact on the design of optimal contract between retailers and suppliers in different channel power.

2008年金融危机后的全球性量化宽松在历史上尚属首次,对世界各大经济体迅速产生巨大影响,但量化宽松对经济复苏究竟有多大作用仍存在争议.本文基于量化宽松对全球经济产生影响的典型化事实,提出一种新型影响模式——“脉冲式响应”,运用实体经济虚拟经济相背离的理论分析脉冲式响应的内在作用机理,引入TVP-BVAR模型实证分析关联储量化宽松货币政策对美国及中国经济的作用效果.结果表明,超宽松的货币刺激在短期内对挽救金融危机、缓解经济衰退起到至关重要的作用,但长期看并不能持续拉动实体经济产出和就业的增长,不能持续推进经济复苏.挽救金融危机的政策不是通过量化宽松政策刺激投机性需求,而应该是通过财政转移支付、税收减免、大力扶持消费信用等以增加大众的真实收入刺激真实需求.

一、从信贷程序上规避商业银行信贷业务的风险 1.贷前信贷业务风险预测及防范.一是建立科学的信贷风险预警体系.贷款发放前,商业银行通过广泛收集借款人历史信用记录和收入情况,建立信贷风险预警体系所需的数据库,寻找优质客户,并分别针对每个贷款发放后的不同用途,借款期间借款人的财务情况与其可能影响到贷款安全的因素变化情况等进行全过程的动态监测,以此作为信贷风险预警及决策的依据,确保建立一个完整、开放性的信息系统.

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial characteristics, government support and innovation performance. Speciifcally, we explores the impact of company size component characteristics and company proprietorship component characteristics on innovation performance, as well as the moderating effects of government support in between. The empirical results show that, industries with a large number of big companies embrace a higher innovation performance. In addition, government technology grant is disadvantageous to the improvement of innovation performance in industries with a large number of state-owned enterprises, while tax preference and subsidy boosts the innovation in industries with a high proportion of private-owned and other patterns of ownership companies.