文章采用2014-2018年三次中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证考察了父母通勤时间对子女学习成绩的影响效应和作用机制.研究发现:第一,父母平均通勤时间每增加15分钟,子女的数学和语文成绩会分别显著下降0.6～2.4分和0.4～1.6分,其中母亲的影响更加明显;第二,通勤时间增加对子女学习成绩的影响具有明显的个体、家庭和地区异质性,女孩、中学生、父母从事自雇工作或父母受教育水平较高的青少年,以及居住在乡镇、郊县和西部地区的青少年,其学习成绩受职住分离的负面影响更大,而参加课外辅导和隔代照料能够在一定程度上缓解职住分离带来的负面影响;第三,通勤时间增加减少了父母对子女在校情况的关注以及对作业完成的要求,是导致子女学习成绩下降的一个重要原因.在鼓励生育和"双减"政策背景下,文章的研究发现对于合理设计差异化的城乡发展布局规划,提高社会生育意愿和促进青少年人力资本积累具有重要的政策价值.
对空气污染与经济增长关系的认知偏差,导致了地方政府治理空气污染的内在激励不足,进而对空气污染的长效治理形成了挑战.虽然越来越多的证据表明空气污染可能会制约经济增长,但证据分散和论证不足导致这一观点并未受到地方政府重视.为了证实这一观点,提升政府治污的主观意愿,本文从劳动力迁移视角出发,采用中介效应模型和调节中介效应模型检验了空气污染影响经济增长的劳动力迁移机制,及该机制中的环境规制调节和协同集聚调节作用.结果表明:第一,空气污染能够显著抑制经济增长,而且这一作用可以通过劳动力迁移机制来传导;第二,环境规制一方面会抑制劳动力迁出,促进经济增长,另一方面还会在与空气污染的交互作用下促进劳动力迁出,抑制经济增长;第三,协同集聚和劳动力迁入的交互作用有利于经济增长,但由于空气污染对劳动力迁入的抑制效应,在协同集聚程度更高的地区,空气污染的经济损失反而更大.这些结论对区域可持续发展具有重要启示:首先,环境质量和经济增长之间并非此消彼长的关系,二者可以共赢;其次,劳动力因污染而迁移的机制是缓解地区发展差距的重要突破口;最后,环境规制对劳动力迁移机制的调节意味着政府治理污染应该当机立断、重拳出击.
现有的中国劳动收入份额的测算研究大多基于中宏观层面,对行业层面的刻画并不充分.对此,本文使用1997-2017年的中国投入产出表,通过梳理不同年份投入产出表的劳动者报酬核算口径,并对口径进行统一的基础上,对中国劳动收入份额的波动进行了行业层面上的测算和结构分解分析.研究发现:2007年以后中国劳动收入份额的上升主要来自制造业的全面收缩和服务业的全面扩张,其中知识密集型服务业劳动收入份额上升叠加规模扩张带来的影响最大.此外,制造业中知识密集型制造业和资本密集型制造业的劳动收入份额均在下降.未来在重视技术创新和产业升级的同时,也必须重视劳动收入份额改善问题,力争实现二者的相互成就.
作为老年人口数量第一的大国,中国未来社会经济发展必然与老龄化相伴,关注中老年人力资源的开发和利用具有重要的现实意义.本文使用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)2011年、2013年、2015年和2018年四期微观调查数据,基于角色紧张和代际交换理论,从劳动参与和劳动时长两个维度出发,探讨隔代照料对中老年人劳动供给的影响及其内在机制.研究发现,隔代照料显著降低了中老年人的劳动供给;农村中老年群体呈现隔代照料与劳动供给兼顾的状态;养老支持的获得是隔代照料影响中老年人劳动参与的内在机制.当下应积极提高市场化社会托幼资源的有效供给,完善农村养老保障体系,加强劳动供给与养老保障之间的精算关联,最大限度激发中老年人的劳动参与活力,进而实现人口红利的二次激活.
已有研究关注劳动者"过度加班"的后果,本文主要探讨每周44小时法定标准工作时长临界处适度的短暂加班能否实现"时间换金钱".本文基于全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用断点回归方法识别短暂加班的工资效应.研究发现,短暂加班对流动人口的工资收入具有显著的正向效应,断点有效性检验、安慰剂检验和带宽敏感性检验均显示结果稳健.异质性分析发现,短暂加班对男性、非农户籍、高学历和雇主群体有显著正向工资效应,而对女性、农业户籍、低学历和雇员群体并未带来"时间换金钱"的效应.与超长加班不同,短暂加班并没有造成显著的健康负向效应,相反会促进收入和健康增加的双赢.本文还发现,健康是影响流动人口工资的传导机制,育儿意愿对工资收入具有调节作用.本文的实证分析结果告诉我们,需要更加理性地看待加班现象及其影响.
农村劳动力向城市转移,是改革开放以来中国经济社会发展的显著特征之一.流动人口规模的不断扩大,使得农民工群体快速成长为中国居民结构的第三极.作为城市的劳动供给主体和重要的消费群体,农民工却表现出较低的长期居留意愿和较高的家庭储蓄率.本文使用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据进行实证研究,通过农民工城市居留意愿在房价与储蓄率之间建立了因果关系识别机制.研究发现,房价上涨会降低农民工在城市的长期居留意愿,而居留意愿下降会导致农民工家庭储蓄率的增加.特别地,中低收入家庭、第一代农民工家庭、仅接受过义务教育、未来打算流向其他城市或返乡的农民工家庭的储蓄率对房价上涨更加敏感.此外,本文还发现,房价上涨对农民工家庭储蓄率的正向影响在西部地区和东北地区更为明显.本文的研究结论为解释农民工高储蓄现象提供了一个全新的视角,为扩大内需、促进消费、构建新发展格局提供了政策启示.
体面居住是实现流动人口的城市融入与市民化身份转变的关键环节,但是住房市场排斥与结构化制度歧视的双重障碍,导致大多数流动人口普遍遭遇住房相对贫困.本文使用2016年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)数据,分析住房公积金与保障性住房对流动人口住房相对贫困的影响.研究发现,住房公积金、保障性住房能够显著缓解流动人口的住房相对贫困,但两种保障方式对不同维度住房贫困的影响有所差异.住房公积金有助于改善居住设施与居住环境,但未能有效解决流动人口的居住拥挤与职居分离问题;而保障性住房在改善居住设施、缓解居住空间拥挤与降低居住环境贫困方面成效明显,但在促进职居平衡方面并不显著.进一步分析发现,住房公积金仅对城—城流动人口缓解住房贫困产生积极的影响,而保障性住房对乡—城流动人口的居住效用改进更明显.此外,住房保障政策能够削弱户籍身份对住房相对贫困的消极影响,缩小流动人口与户籍人口的住房贫困差距.研究认为,住房保障政策应充分落实住房公积金参与,扩大保障性住房供给,以全面提升流动人口居住条件与加速社会融入进程.
This study finds a significant decline in the college premium by examining data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2017. The wage premium of college-educated laborers,compared to those with middle and high school education,declines from 8. 18 percent to 4. 65percent during the period. An instrumental variable is constructed to deal with endogeneity of the relative supply of college-educated laborers. Analysis on the substitution elasticity between collegeeducated laborers and high school equivalents shows that a 10 percent increase in college-educated labor supply is associated with a decline of the college premium by 1. 3 percent to 3 percent. The surplus of the college-educated laborers at least accounts for more than half of the decline of the college premium. A possible spillover effect of higher education is also discussed. Even if collegeeducated laborers enjoy higher college premiums in cities with higher proportion of well-educated,they have to face higher housing costs. As a result,the income-expenditure ratio is similar across cities of different scales. This paper is expected to invoke more discussions in higher education expansion,education investment,and migration decision.
Optimal allocation of human capital across regions through labor mobility is an important way to achieve high-quality economic development in China. This paper examine how labor mobility across regions affects productivity of firms. It is found that labor mobility does improve productivity of firms, and this effect is particularly driven by the mobility of high-skilled labor. The contribution of labor mobility to productivity of firms is mainly achieved by optimizing the allocation of labor resources, which shows that labor mobility increases the productivity of firms in the net inflow region without reducing the productivity of firms in the net outflow region. The mobility of high-skilled labor enhances the productivity of firms in net-inflowing regions mainly through two channels: improving human capital level and innovation capability of firms in net-inflowing regions. The productivity enhancement effect of high-skilled labor mobility on productivity of firms is significantly stronger in regions with higher tertiary industry share, urban intelligence level and local average human capital level. The finding sets a new and important perspective for understanding the evolution of the spatial pattern of China’s economic growth dynamics, and it has certain policy implications on how to guide labor mobility to realize China’s secondary demographic dividend.
党的二十大报告中指出,实施就业优先战略,强化就业优先政策,健全就业公共服务体系,加强困难群体就业兜底帮扶,消除影响平等就业的不合理限制和就业歧视,使人人都有通过勤奋劳动实现自身发展的机会.就业是民生之本,就业是最大的民生工程、民心工程、根基工程,是社会稳定的重要保障,必须抓紧抓实抓好.二十大报告中关于就业的论述阐明了就业工作的根本,也诠释了把解决就业置于更突出位置的必要性.在构建新发展格局中,实施就业优先战略有着鲜明的时代意义.
This paper constructs a migration opportunity index exogenous to rural areas by combining urban Hukou reforms in 2001-2015 with earlier migration networks, and then studies the impact of migration policy changes on rural human capital investment using population census microdata. The paper also explores the mechanism based on data collected in fixed rural observation spots. Results show that increases in migration opportunities have a significantly negative effect on rural population’s high school enrollment. Mechanism analyses find two channels. First, the outflow of family members induces more rural youths to participate in household production, thus crowding out education investment. The other one is that, rural youths prefer to become migrants themselves after graduating from junior high school, since the opportunity costs of continuing senior high school or further education are higher as the return to migration rises. This paper suggests that relevant policies should aim at improving the expected return to education and alleviating the negative impact of migration on education investment in rural areas, so as to build a talent pool for the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.
Using the urban data from CHIP 2013 and 2018, this paper investigates the relationship between carbon emission intensity and urban labor income gap using unconditional quantile regression and RIF-based regression decomposition. The result shows that increase in carbon emission intensity is associated with reduced urban labor income gap. The underlying mechanism can be understood from both industry and regional perspectives. From the industry perspective, high-carbon industries are generally characterized with their abilities of suppressing high income but raising low income, while the low-emission high-tech industries are the opposite, thus in the upgrading process toward low-carbon and high-tech industries, the urban labor income gap are highly likely to be widened. From the regional perspective, provinces with high carbon emissions have more high-carbon industries, and the income gaps in these provinces are more likely to be small because high-carbon industries employment lower high incomes. These findings confirm that the characteristics of high-carbon industries are very important for explaining the effect of carbon emission intensity on income gap.
The process of citizenization is affected not only by institutional barriers to labor mobility, but also by conceptual factors. Combining data from CGSS（2010, 2012, 2013）, China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,and prefectural-level city characteristics, this paper examines the effect of migrants’ parenting concept on their citizenization. We find that having concerted cultivation concept will make migrants choose cities with lower school enrollment threshold, while bypassing cities with higher enrollment threshold for their children. This effect is significantly stronger among the highly educated migrants. An implication from this paper is that the citizenization process could be accelerated by lowering the school enrollment threshold for migrant children.
党的二十大报告提出,全面建设社会主义现代化国家,最艰巨最繁重的任务仍然在农村.中国是世界人口大国,2035年前总人口将在14亿人左右,仍有4～5亿人口居住在乡村.因此,确保中国人的饭碗牢牢端在自己手中,始终是中国农业现代化的底线.中国农业现代化,不仅承载着14亿人口的粮食安全,还承载着4～5亿人口在乡村的就业与生活,以及保护和传承乡村生态、文化遗产等的责任.在耕地资源、人口规模约束的先决条件下,中国农业现代化将不得不寻找新的理论逻辑与实践路径.数字中国战略为此提供了新的路径.
Digital trade has gradually become a new force driving China’s domestic economic development in recent years. However, the degree of adopting digital technology varies greatly across different industries, and there are also significant differences in skill demand and salary supply for employees and digital trade development may have significant impact on wage gap among industries. This paper constructed a digital trade development evaluation system based on entropy weight method covering 5 dimensions: digital network infrastructure, digital technology, digital trade mode, digital trade object, and trade potential. With the evaluation system, development level of digital trade is calculated in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, and the wage gap is examined using dispersion of wage levels among industries across various provinces. Results show that the digital trade development has significantly enlarged the wage gap among industries during the study period, and the impact of the digital trade development on the wage gap among industries in the central and western regions are greater than that in the eastern region. Skill premium from the digital trade development has a positively mediating effect on the wage gap among industries. While the government has vigorously developed the digital economy and digital trade in recent years, government should also encourage investment in digital technology education for all employees to improve their skills and wages, especially in the central and western regions, to prevent the wage gap among industries from further widening.
The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has a profound impact on economic development and people’s well-being around the world. Under the research framework of well-being, this paper reviews the effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on six different economic and well-being indicators, including poverty, income, employment, health, education, and subjective well-being. The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has hindered economic development and increased social inequality globally. Around the world, COVID-19 pandemic has hindered the development of the world economy and continued to expand social inequality. The income of global residents has decreased, poverty has deepened, the employment situation has become less optimistic. Health and education conditions have been adversely affected, which is not conducive to the development of future human capital. Subjective well-being such as life satisfaction has been poorly performed. In fighting against the pandemic, China has actively introduced a series of policies to protect people’s livelihood and has kept the whole society moderately prosperous in an all-round way. In the next stage of high-quality development, it is necessary to further adopt more inclusive and sustainable social policies to continuously improve people’s well-being.
党的二十大报告要求实现好、维护好、发展好最广大人民根本利益,紧紧抓住人民最关心最直接最现实的利益问题,采取更多惠民生、暖民心举措,扎实推进共同富裕.在这些人民群众急难愁盼问题中,与提高人民福祉对应的收入水平提高,以及形成与家庭意愿相一致的可持续生育率,是两个有着紧密关系的任务.这是在发展中保障和改善民生的关键领域,也与人民群众日常生活枝叶相连,应该在促进共同富裕的过程中协同实现.
Focusing on the tightening of urban Hukou in China’s major cities from 2013 to 2014, this paper finds that the regulation changes do discourage the inflow of migrant workers, especially low-skilled workers, leading to wage increases for low-skilled labor. As a result, high-skilled women have to face higher opportunity costs to participate in labor market, and consequently underemployment of these women. The paper further finds that a tighter settlement policy leads to a 0.9 percentage-point decrease in women working in R＆D in technology firms in major cities, compared to other cities. This effect is mainly prevalent in micro and small firms as well as non-state enterprises. In mechanism elimination analysis, this paper finds that neither the two-child birth policy nor the location change of firms accounts for the underemployment of high-skilled women. Therefore, a more open and flexible Hukou policy is expected to help high-skilled women gain more employment in major cities.
Rural women are the main target and an important force for poverty alleviation. Promoting rural women ’ s employment not only narrows the urban-rural income gap,but also improves women’ s career development and gender equality. Based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（ CHARLS）,this article takes the Women ’ s Poverty Alleviation Project（ WPAP） implemented by the All-China Women ’ s Federation as the research setting.Using the difference-in-differences method and the triple difference method,the paper examines the effect of WPAP on rural women’ s employment. The results show that the alleviation effort increases the probability of non-agricultural employment by 3. 32 percent for rural women and poverty alleviation liberates rural women’ s labor from their own agricultural work to turn to non-agricultural employment. Further analysis shows that women’ s poverty alleviation has a greater effect for women from poor and Dibao families. However,the effect on non-agricultural employment is not significant for women in the central and western regions and those without academic qualifications. Under the urgency of winning the fight against poverty and adhering to the basic national policy of gender equality,the WPAP has a good employment promotion effect and has strongly promoted women’ s social status.
Based on survey data of migrant workers in Shanghai from 2016 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of overtime work on the happiness of migrant workers and its mechanism using regression analysis, Shapley decomposition method, and mediation effect model. Robustness of the results is also verified by sub-sample analysis, propensity score matching method, and substitution variable method. The results show that overtime work has a significantly negative impact on the happiness of migrant workers. The explanatory power of overtime labor on happiness is second only to income and health, with a contribution rate higher than 10 percent. By squeezing time spent in education and recreation for migrant workers, overtime work reduces migrant workers’ integration into urban life and their sense of happiness. Increase in income from overtime work mitigates the negative impact on happiness, and education positively moderates the negative effect. The effect of overtime work on the happiness of old generation and new generation of migrants is heterogeneous. Overall, alleviating overtime work is an important way to improve the happiness of migrant workers.
