Global Stocktake is an important component of the global climate governance mechanism. The first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2023 has clarified collective progress and identified the paths to bridge gaps, but its understanding in the academic and policy communities is not yet systematic and comprehensive. Therefore, this study adopts textual analysis, timeline analysis, and game theory methods to comprehensively analyze the process and outcomes of the first Global Stocktake. The study finds that: ① The first Global Stocktake underwent three stages, including scientific enhancement, technical dialogue, and political consensus, and took more than five years to reach the final outcome of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Consensus in which the 1.5 °C temperature control target anchored in the scientific enhancement stage set the general tone for the stocktake. ② The first Global Stocktake focused on three specific areas—mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation and support—to fully realize the signaling effect. ③ The most prominent outcome of the stocktake is the new consensus on “transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems”, which specifies the direction for countries to update their nationally determined contributions in 2025 and for the international community to conduct the second Global Stocktake in 2028. ④ The four groups of countries, namely, developed countries, emerging economies, hydrocarbon-exporting-oriented economies, and climate-vulnerable countries, have different interests and hold distinct core positions, which constrain each other but advance the global stocktake process as a whole. ⑤ The outcomes of the stocktake are comprehensive and systematic, with as many as 196 consensus items; however, the detailed targets for the three major focus areas are unclear and rigid, and need to be strengthened in the second global stocktake. The study suggests that, on the one hand, China needs to strengthen its policy research in the light of the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake and prepare for the submission of updated nationally determined contribution in 2025 for 2035, which should be consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature control target. On the other hand, China should continue to take advantage of the zero-carbon industry to lead global climate change action and expand national development right and international communication capacity.
The increasing climate change and human activities exert their influence on the ecological sensitivity of the region individually and interactively. Therefore, a clear understanding of the impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity will enhance the resilience of the regional ecological environment and the level of sustainable development. This study took the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the first demonstration zone of China's ecological civilization construction, as the research object. Based on the meteorological, remote sensing, and statistical data of 130 cities in the whole region from 2001 to 2021, an index system of climate change, human activities, and ecological sensitivity was constructed. Response surface methodology （RSM） was used to explore the effects of climate and anthropogenic single factors and interactions on the ecological sensitivity in each region. The results showed that： ① The ecological sensitivity value of the belt fluctuated and rose in time, rising by 2.2% from 2001 to 2021. In terms of space, the overall spatial distribution was "high in the north and low in the south." In 2021, the proportion of severely and extremely sensitive cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt reached nearly 50%. ② For a single factor, the distribution of the effect of the same factor had certain characteristics： The areas where the single factors of economic development, rainfall, and temperature had a positive impact on the ecological sensitivity were concentrated in the areas with higher or faster economic development, along and south of the Yangtze River. For the interaction factors, the effect of 78.6% of the factors on the ecological sensitivity was negative interaction, and the change of one factor level would change the direction of the effect of the other factor on the regional sensitivity. ③ The comprehensive ecological management area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was divided based on the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity. The governance areas that needed priority improvement were clustered within the three urban agglomerations and their northern adjacent areas, which meant that the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity of a city had spillover effects. This study is expected to provide inspiration for the economic zone and even the national and global efforts in the field of regional ecological governance.
The Japanese government’s unilateral decision to discharge the nuclear-contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean has caused immense nuclear safety risks. Monitoring the unclear-contaminated water is a starting point to combat these risks and seek remedies for the rights and interests of all concerned parties. The establishment of a mechanism for international cooperation in this respect is necessary to handle the risks of the Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water and to lay the foundation of a framework for tackling any future disposal of nuclear-contaminated water following Japan’s example. At present, the international legal systems in the spheres of nuclear safety and security, marine environmental protection, and other areas, as well as the questioning of the monitoring reports of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by the relevant parties, the monitoring practices of historical nuclear accidents, and numerous radioactivity monitoring mechanisms have provided the institutional and practical basis for constructing such a mechanism. The mechanism can be promoted by the IAEA through its existing mechanisms or be jointly initiated by China, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and the Pacific Island countries, among other stakeholders. Specifically, this mechanism should consist of three levels: first, the framework of the basic legal system, including the cooperative principles of national sovereignty, interest-relatedness, and procedural fairness, and the signing of the Framework Convention on the Monitoring of Fukushima’s nuclear-contaminated water and its Optional Protocol; second, the organizational structure and its responsibilities, which may include the Conference of Parties as the decision-making body, the Secretariat as the central coordinating body, and the monitoring committees in various fields as specific implementing agencies; and third, specific administrative arrangements, which involve the standardization of monitoring, the management system of monitoring networks and stations, the rules for monitoring procedures, and the rules for the utilization of the monitoring data, etc. With the urgent need for the scientific and fair monitoring of Fukushima’s nuclear-contaminated water, China, as a stakeholder country, can promote the establishment of such a mechanism for monitoring nuclear-contaminated water through the following paths: ① It is necessary to clarify the factors affecting the construction of an international cooperation mechanism for monitoring nuclear-contaminated water so as to ascertain the standpoints of the stakeholders, claims of their interests, contents of their cooperation, and the relevant international relations. ② On the basis of existing practices, China should consider improving the monitoring mechanism to cope with the risks of the discharge of Fukushima’s nuclear-contaminated water by formulating targeted policies and systems, setting up specialized monitoring institutions, and establishing a systematic monitoring network system. ③ This is an effective way for China to actively promote the participation of stakeholders in the construction of an international cooperation mechanism for monitoring nuclear-contaminated water in Fukushima by further innovating the dissemination mechanism to address the risk of Fukushima’s nuclear-contaminated water discharging into the sea and facilitating the identification of issues for international cooperation in monitoring Fukushima’s nuclear-contaminated water based on the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind.
As a typical modern risk, climate risk poses new challenges to the existing legal system and urgently requires responses from the constitution, the fundamental law of the system. A constitutional review of climate legislation is not only necessary, but also has the dual legitimacy of improving the right relief approach and supplementing the limitations of representative majority democracy,which is conducive to promoting the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. As a legal response to climate risk, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference adopted the Paris Agreement, which clarifies a state’s legal obligations to deal with climate change and has triggered a wave of climate litigation resorting to constitutional review of climate legislation. As a new field, climate legislation lacks practice accumulation and has no pertinent benchmark established in past constitutional review practices. As the United States and Germany represent the two existing constitutional review models in the world, a comparative analysis of their constitutional theories and front-line practices may provide a reference for China’s constitutional review of climate legislation and further improve scientific legislation on climate change. At the macrolevel, China is a party to and an active practitioner of the Paris Agreement. In the future, China should generally keep its constitutional review open to the issue of climate change, and it would be advisable for the country to adopt a relatively loose review benchmark on climate legislation. In terms of specific operation, compared with the U.S. model, the German reviewing benchmark on climate legislation, which consists of the principle of proportionality and obviousness, has characteristics of abstractness and precision in operation. It is more compatible with climate legislation emphasizing sustainable development and more suitable for China’s constitutional context. It can be used as a reference for China’s constitutional review of climate legislation.
承担减排责任是参与气候变化全球治理的重要组成.碳中和目标已成为气候变化领域的热点,目前明确提出碳中和目标的国家已覆盖全球超75%的温室气体排放.合理地评价和比较各国/地区碳中和目标将成为全球盘点的重要内容,同时对各国提振减排目标具有参考意义.该研究首先利用配额分配模型,研究了全球2℃和1.5℃目标下主要国家和地区需实现的碳中和年份,评价了各国目标年份与全球温升目标的关系;在此基础上,模拟主要国家和地区实现碳中和的可仿效路径,以年均减排量、人均排放及人均累计排放等指标评估了各国和地区碳中和目标力度.研究得出:多数发达国家和地区当前碳中和目标无法满足全球实现1.5℃温升目标的要求;美国和欧盟延续现有NDC目标下的年均减排量,即可实现2050年碳中和目标.中国实现2060年碳中和目标,2030-2050年年均减排率为6.7%,年均减排量为1.5℃目标路径下全球的51%,将面临较大压力;中国未来将成为全球累计排放的主力,其未来选择的减排路径对全球累计排放及温升目标均将产生重要影响.基于上述研究结论,该研究提出发达国家与发展中国家应积极探索双边或多边协作减排模式,实现技术和资金等方面的深度合作;中国面对实现碳中和的压力,需尽快明确碳中和减排总路径以及分部门、分行业、分省份、分阶段的减排路径等建议.
