2022年亚太地区总体形势呈现"亚太治理"与"印太战略"对垒,传统安全与非传统安全交织,疫情、通胀全球化与经济、贸易区域化并行的发展态势.后疫情时期和石油联合减产的背景下俄乌冲突爆发,刺激多种能源价格创历史新高,引发全球能源危机.能源价格高企、经济增长放缓,一些国家走向严重衰退.亚太各国通过发展可再生能源、加强核电、吸引国外投资和能源来源多元化等途径以寻求能源转型、追求能源安全.中国与中南半岛国家能源合作取得新进展,与亚太国家能源合作存在新的机遇与风险.

"一带一路"倡议自2013年提出以来,已迈过十年征程.十年间,"一带一路"合作务实推进,实现全面发展,我国与"一带一路"沿线国家在互联互通网络构建、深化经贸合作以及加强资金融通等方面取得显著成就,"一带一路"倡议踏上高质量发展新征程.然而,"一带一路"沿线国家经济波动较大,地区安全问题严峻,规则协调整合水平仍需提高,以及"一带一路"国际传播话语权构建不足等问题,形成了"一带一路"高质量发展的现实挑战.未来,我国应进一步提升融资风险规避掌控能力,建立完善投资监管、财政、债务可持续性框架以及法律风险评估机制,推进绿色规则标准体系对接,在"一带一路"环境治理框架中发挥主导作用,把握数字经济与绿色发展机遇,加强对外话语体系建设,提升国际领导力,推动"一带一路"倡议高质量发展.

"一带一路"跨国投资中东道国"政策干预"情况的日益增加,在为投资企业带来损失的同时,也为中国带来较大负面影响.在不同投资实践中,东道国的干预动因及其策略选择呈现出明显差别,这种差异的原因值得深入探讨.本文构建了基于"成本收益考量""有无替代合作"和"安全威胁认知"三个自变量的干预策略选择框架:当自变量呈现负向变化时,会激发东道国的政策干预行为;当只有一个自变量发生负向变化时,东道国会倾向于采取软对冲干预策略;当有两个自变量发生负向变化时,东道国会倾向于采取硬对冲干预策略;而两个负向变量中有一个是"安全威胁认知"变量时,东道国会倾向于合作取消的干预结果.通过对缅甸皎漂港、斯里兰卡科伦坡港口城和吉尔吉斯斯坦阿特巴什工业贸易物流中心三个案例的过程追踪和比较分析,本文核心假说得到了验证.研究尝试突破国别研究和国际投资研究的固有视角,发掘国家行为体在采取政策干预行为过程中的异质性,回应现实需求对学理研究的期待.

博弈论出于"理性人"假设,精于成本收益演算,是经济领域应用最为广泛的理论分析工具之一.不同于经济领域的纯粹理性博弈,国际关系领域的博弈,既是关于成本收益的理性权衡,也是对成本收益预判的知觉过程.对成本收益的预判,既有对博弈整体环境、规则、战略等要素的推演,也有对行为体偏好的预估,这两个过程都存在受决策者知觉等(心理变量)影响的可能性,进而改变博弈进程.美国特朗普政府在"贸易战双输"的理性判断面前,作出了发起对华贸易制裁这一"任性"的决策,便是"心理变量影响理性博弈"这一机制的典型案例.

国际能源治理正在经历去政治化、去意识形态化和去政府化的深刻变革,全球能源市场的规范性建设初具成效,国际合作水平不断提升.各国政府、政府部门及亚国家的政府当局和各类政府间、非政府间国际能源组织是目前国际能源治理的主体.中国在全球能源格局中至关重要的地位赋予了自身雄厚的能源实力.中国开始构建本国全球能源战略,更积极地参与全球能源治理.一方面,中国积极拓展与IEA、国际能源论坛等已有机制的合作,另一方面,通过创建以"一带一路"能源合作伙伴关系和以GEIDCO为代表的一系列新的国际机制,积极为全球能源治理贡献"中国方案".

This paper studies the effects of world oil price uncertainty on China’s economy from both empirical and theoretical angles. First, we use a vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility in mean to explore the relation between world oil price uncertainty and real economic activity of China. We find that one standard deviation higher uncertainty shock of world oil price reduces electricity production by almost 0.2 percentage. Then we use a canonical New-Keynesian model solved by third-order perturbation method to explain this phenomenon, in which households’ precautionary saving channel distresses real activity when oil price uncertainty is higher.

On March 5th, 2022 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered the Government Work Report at the meeting of the Fifth Session of the 13th National People's Congress. Its important contents included ecological civilization construction and achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. It is clearly stated in the Government Work Report that well-ordered steps must be taken to achieve peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality, and the action plan for peak carbon emissions will be put into effect.

While there is a proliferation of studies on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), there is a gap in the literature in terms of an exploration of the costs and benefits from the perspective of the energy sector, in both the areas of sectoral development and energy transition. This paper uses Australia as a case study. The paper is the first to quantify the impact of the BRI in the energy sector, and the analysis informs the current debates on the BRI in Australia. We find that energy cooperation under the BRI enhances the performance of energy companies, but the Chinese energy investment in Australia faces mounting challenges. We suggest some areas for cooperation and such cooperation could be extended to third countries. Amid the increasing trade and political tensions, the two countries need continued, level-headed discussions and debates about the potential cooperation areas at all levels.

G20峰会作为全球治理的主要平台之一,不仅正在引领全球绿色治理进程,而且呈现出以绿色治理引领全球发展与治理的新趋势和新变局.通过分析2008-2021年G20峰会框架下全球绿色治理议题及其领导人宣言,探析G20峰会在应对全球绿色治理问题、推动绿色发展进程和统筹推进气候、环境、能源治理等方面的角色与作用,G20峰会通过战略性参与、制度化影响和实践性改造等深刻塑造全球绿色治理进程,在大国战略竞合、百年大变局等新形势下,中国需要深化G20峰会框架下全球绿色治理进程的大国作用,为共建人与自然生命共同体、人类命运共同体作出新的更大的贡献.

Since the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, new changes have taken place in the global economy which have accelerated the energy transition: first, severe fluctuations in global oil and gas prices have triggered widespread concern about the security of the traditional energy supply in various countries, and calls to strive for "energy independence" have risen in volume significantly. Second, the naturally occurring virus and frequent extreme climatic phenomena have made climate issues more serious. Countries have raised their attention to climate issues to an unprecedented level and scrambled to actively promote the energy transition and put forward timetables for "carbon neutrality". Third, the COVID-19 pandemic has heavily impacted the global economy, and countries have generally chosen to boost their economies through the Keynesian approach of large-scale government investment. Developing renewable energy and achieving the energy transition have become the common choices of all countries. The energy transition has become one of the most prominent trends in the world after the COVID-19 outbreak.

拜登政府上台后,将气候问题作为其政策重点,展现了强烈的气候治理雄心.但拜登政府却主动发起针对中国的"绿色竞赛",在气候问题上与中国展开竞争."绿色竞赛"是指中美在"气候危机"共识下,虽然有着巨大合作空间,却受中美战略竞争大环境影响难以开展有效的合作."绿色竞赛"的实质是拜登政府将中美战略竞争引向气候领域,来达到遏制中国的目的.拜登政府通过争夺全球气候议程主导权、拉拢其他国家试图孤立中国、加大"碳中和"技术和基建投入、提出"B3W"等竞争性方案等方式展开"绿色竞赛".这一现象既表现了民主党政府一贯的政策特点,也是中美战略竞争大环境影响下,拜登政府将"绿色竞赛"作为重塑美国领导力的重要工具的结果.为应对"绿色竞赛",中国既要努力争取与美国在气候问题上达成实质性合作,也要保持较强的战略定力和高度政策自主性,展开积极灵活的气候外交行动,减轻"绿色竞赛"的不利影响.

自2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,全球经济发生新的变化,能源转型呈现加速态势:其一,全球油气价格发生剧烈波动,引发了各国对传统能源供应安全的广泛担忧,争取"能源自主"的声音明显增多.其二,频发的极端气候现象让气候问题变得更加严峻,各国对这一问题的关注上升到前所未有的高度,争相提出"碳中和"时间表,主动推动能源转型.其三,新冠肺炎疫情重创了全球经济,各国普遍选择通过凯恩斯主义的政府大规模投资手段来提振经济,发展可再生能源,实现能源转型成为共同的选择.

随着气候危机议题日益成为全球治理的核心关切及纽带性议题,特别是随着欧盟、中国、美国、日本、俄罗斯等诸多大国和主要经济体纷纷宣布碳中和目标、实施绿色低碳的治理战略和基于绿色化、零碳化国际交流与合作,碳中和的大国战略及其互动受到国际社会的广泛关注.2021年9月,中共中央、国务院正式公布的《关于完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念做好碳达峰碳中和工作的意见》,对做好碳达峰碳中和工作作出总体部署,为"双碳"目标的实现绘制出了清晰的蓝图.在此背景下,《全球能源互联网》编委会和编辑部心怀"国之大者",创建"碳中和背景下世界政治经济的演变与合作"专题,诸多学者和专家立足国内、胸怀世界的真知灼见,将为学术界、政策界和广大关心气候变化议题的同仁们提供高质量的学术产品.《全球能源互联网》是引领碳中和、绿色能源和生态文明建设的重要学术前沿阵地,正在以自身力量为国家气候治理和全球应对气候变化作出新贡献.

2020年11月《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的签署标志着人口最多、经贸规模最大、转型要求最高的自由贸易区正式启动.这一以东盟为中心创建的合作机制开始实现对区域现有经贸规则、资源平台的整合与升级.RCEP形成了可持续发展的物质、社会与领导力的三重基础,达成了低碳能源转型、碳中和及对接联合国2030议程的三大共识,明确了更高贸易标准规则的原则,突出了实质性的低碳经济合作.随着区域内经济与社会融合的加深,绿色发展成为面向未来的合作支点,RCEP可持续发展的乐观前景逐渐显现.

In 2020, China announced that it will strive to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. The time from carbon peak to carbon neutrality promised by China is far shorter than that of developed countries, which requires hard work. Under the trend of carbon neutrality, Chinese oil and gas enterprises need to accelerate the pace of adjusting to the change in energy consumption structure. It is urgent to formulate energy transformation strategy in line with the trend of "carbon neutrality".

生态文明是中国向世界提供的新型绿色理念,是推进2030年可持续发展议程国内落实和双边、多边国际合作的重要纽带.生态文明建设与2030年可持续发展议程不仅在理念上存在一致性和相通性,而且在具体内容上也相辅相成并具有协同性.在现实中,两者对接的国内、国际需求日益突出,主、客观条件也不断成熟.生态文明建设与2030年可持续发展议程的对接集中体现在主体架构、运行基础、发展层次、基本原则等方面,并遵循互补性、互动性和协同性的逻辑.在此过程中,中国可以发挥政府间双边、多边机制对接的引导性作用,将公共产品作为生态文明建设与2030年可持续发展议程对接的着力点,打造民心相通和绿色文明互鉴的社会基础,善用国家主场外交等重要契机,推进生态文明建设与2030年可持续发展议程的相互借鉴和促进.生态文明建设与2030年可持续发展议程的对接不仅可以使生态文明建设获得更多的外部认同和支持,而且可以推动国际社会全面、均衡落实2030年可持续发展议程.

How should international oil and gas enterprises realize energy transformation through green financial instruments Φrsted located in Denmark is taken as an example to elaborate the methods with which international oil and gas enterprises realize energy transformation by green financial instruments. Φrsted has transformed from fossil energy to clean energy since 2009,and has now become a wind power giant in Denmark,with an annual income of DKK 67.8 billion (USD 9.8 billion).During the whole transformation process,the company comprehensively applied internal and external green financial instruments to assist the transformation.

能源转型是人类文明发展和进步的重要驱动力.在第四次工业革命的浪潮下,新能源革命方兴未艾,其动力既来自新技术,又源于人类环境意识的觉醒与制度化.在全球能源治理变革创新的进程中,中国作为负责任大国和"碳中和"的积极倡议国,应积极探索全球能源治理变革的中国方案,努力构建公平合理、合作共赢的全球环境治理体系.