The power grid CO2 emission factor is a critical parameter for accurately calculating indirect emissions from the electricity consumption side, serving as a core indicator for precisely quantifying the CO2 emission pathways at the consumption side. This study explores the temporal and spatial characteristics of the province-level power-grid CO2 emission factors from 2020 to 2035 and compares them with official-source factors. Moreover, it integrates historical direct-emission data to accurately quantify the importance of indirect emissions from the electricity consumption side. Additionally, it predicts the province-level indirect emissions and emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2035, quantifying the impacts of power grid CO2 emission factors with distinct temporal and spatial accuracies on provincial emission pathways. The results indicate that: (1) from 2020 to 2035, the power grid CO2 emission factors of all provinces are expected to exhibit sustained decreasing trends, and there are disparities between the existing publicly available power-grid CO2 emission factors and provincial levels in the study. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the indirect emissions from electricity consumption and their proportions in net electricity-importing provinces had gradually increased, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang province having the largest proportions. (3) Under Scenarios 1 (constant power-grid CO2 emission factors on the national level) and 3 (constant power-grid CO2 emission factors on the provincial level), the indirect emissions from electricity consumption and total emissions of all provinces will be significantly higher than the estimated results in Scenarios 2 (dynamic power-grid CO2 emission factor on the national level) and 4 (dynamic power-grid CO2 emission factor on the provincial level). The estimation results of Scenarios 1 and 2 are projected to differ significantly from those of Scenarios 3 and 4. For provinces with large proportions of indirect emissions from electricity consumption, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, selecting power grid CO2 emission factors with different spatial accuracies is expected to have noticeable impacts on their total emissions, further leading to shifts in their peaking years. The research results can provide a reference for supporting the planning of carbon peaking pathways in various provinces and reducing the uncertainty in indirect emission forecasts.

The synergistic evaluation integrating air quality, human health, climate impact, and socioeconomic development is significant for green and low-carbon transition. Here, we quantified the contribution of pollutant emissions in 30 provinces (source) to PM2.5 concentration and related premature mortality in each 20 km grid (receptor) of China in 2020 by an integrated model for the first time. Further, we established a cross-province contribution matrix of health impact intensity (HII, PM2.5-related deaths per GDP). According to HII and CEI (carbon emission intensity, defined as CO2 emission per GDP) levels, 30 provinces were divided into 4 regions including LL, HL, LH and HH. In order to assess the synergy in air pollution and carbon emission, we established an index system consisting of ISEC-AC (index for synergistic assessment) and its two sub index: IHI (index for HII assessment), and ICE (index for CEI assessment). Results showed that the ISEC-AC was more easily influenced by IHI as the variance of IHI was much higher than that of ICE. Influenced by various factors, e.g., economic structure, population density, pollution transport, ISEC-AC exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity. In general, the ISEC-AC of southeast provinces was higher than that of central and western, indicating the environmental and climate impact per GDP was relatively lower in southeast China. For provinces, ISEC-AC of SH and GD were ~ 16 times higher than NX. For regions, due to low carbon emission intensity and health impact intensity, ISEC-AC of LL was the highest with 176; followed by HL (128), LH (126) and HH (77). Further, we figured out the main control problems and then put forward targeted synergetic control suggestions for air pollution and carbon emission from the perspective of energy structure, industry structure and industry layout, which can provide insights into future green and low-carbon policy making in China and other countries.

电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门,碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的40％以上;同时,电力将是未来10年能源增长的主体,而这些新增用电与国计民生直接相关,属于刚性需求,是支撑我国经济转型升级和未来居民生活水平提高的重要保障.电力行业未来新增需求压力巨大,其碳排放峰值及达峰速度将直接决定2030年前全国碳排放达峰目标能否实现.统筹考虑社会经济发展、各部门用电需求、电源结构调整、发电标准煤耗变化等因素,采用基于情景分析的方法,开展电力行业碳排放趋势预测,识别碳减排的主要驱动因素,提出推动碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定碳达峰目标背景下的电力行业碳排放控制路径提供参考.结果表明:①通过积极措施,电力行业碳排放能够在2030年左右达峰,在不考虑热电联产供热碳排放时,于2028—2031年达峰,峰值为43.2×108～44.9×108 t,较2020年增加3.2×108～4.9×108 t;考虑热电联产供热碳排放,则达峰时间为2031—2033年,峰值为50.7×108～53.0×108 t,较2020年增加4.9×108～7.2×108 t.②在电源结构不变的情况下,如到2030年降低2％左右的电力需求,达峰时间将提前4年左右.③提速风光新能源发展是实现2030年前碳达峰的必然选择,到2030年,提高风光发电、核电、水电、生物质、气电发电装机容量及发电量、节能降耗措施等各项措施的减排贡献率分别为55.3％、10.6％、9.2％、7.6％、5.7％、11.5％.研究显示,未来我国电力行业碳减排工作重点要聚焦于优化电源结构、推动形成绿色生产生活方式、提升用电效率、降低煤电机组能耗水平等方面.

开展碳排放达峰路径研究,明确时间表、路线图、施工图,是支撑我国实现2030年前碳达峰目标的基础性研究工作.本文采取自上而下和自下而上相结合的方式,以满足社会经济高质量稳定发展需求和国家碳达峰碳中和双重目标为约束开展自上而下的宏观路径研究;以合计贡献了我国碳排放(不含港澳台地区数据)90％以上的电力、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共6个重点行业以及建筑、交通2个重点领域为对象,开展自下而上的重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究;通过上下路径反复迭代、行业间耦合优化,打通宏观路径与微观措施的联动和双向反馈,最终形成基于重点行业/领域的我国碳达峰路径.结果表明:为实现国家碳达峰、碳中和的目标愿景,需抓紧部署、大力推进包括清洁能源降碳、能效提升降碳、资源循环降碳、管理调控降碳等4类关键举措,方可实现我国碳排放量在2030年前达峰的目标,峰值较2020年增加5.0×108～7.0×108 t左右,达峰后将保持3～4年的峰值平台期.受需求与技术驱动,不同领域碳排放总量将梯次实现达峰,其中工业领域(含钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共5个重点行业)预计将在"十四五"期间整体达峰,达峰后碳排放稳定下降;电力行业和交通、建筑领域碳排放均在2030年左右实现达峰.经测算,2021—2030年间,为推动碳达峰采取的4类关键措施预计需投入2.08×1013元;其中清洁能源降碳是最为有效的措施,同时也是成本最高的措施.为保障关键举措顺利落地,建议全面加大政策创新,逐步形成系统完善的碳总量控制与交易市场机制、绿色低碳标准体系、行业准入及产业结构政策体系、价格财税及投融资机制等.本研究分行业及领域的碳达峰路径研究成果及所识别的关键控碳减碳技术手段、措施和政策将为国家碳达峰路径设计提供技术支撑.

建立完善的、减污降碳相协同的管理制度是支撑全国碳排放高质量达峰的重要保障,有效控制新增碳排放是推动实现重点行业尽早达峰的关键.环境影响评价是我国源头防控的基础性制度,将温室气体管控要求纳入其中是现阶段推动减污降碳协同增效的可行途径及重要抓手.综合考虑国内外管理实践经验以及我国制度特点与管理需求,开展了温室气体环境影响评价技术方法研究.本文提出了系统性、全过程、协同性的三大温室气体评价基本原则,识别建设项目温室气体环境影响评价的主要影响因素,构建了强调高效、低碳、循环的温室气体环境影响评价指标体系,建立了包含项目分析与判断、影响因素识别、影响预测与技术分析、综合环境影响评价的评价方法体系.基于该方法,以山东省250万吨电解铝产能转移至云南省项目为例,开展碳排放环境影响评价分析,测算结果表明:若不考虑项目对云南省对外输电的影响,全国CO2减排量可达2574.4×104 t;如考虑项目对跨区输电的影响,则全国CO2净减排量将减至968.3×104 t;进一步考虑技术升级、地方煤炭消费政策等因素影响,还会得到差异明显的评价结果.研究显示,考虑不同评价目标、评价边界和影响因素可能会对全社会碳排放量环境影响评价结果产生显著影响,由此建议在开展相关评价时应立足实际需求,合理确定评价目标和边界.

在"双碳"目标提出的背景下,电力行业作为首要的碳排放行业,将承担起更大的减排份额及减排责任.筛选了13种电力行业的关键减排技术,评估并比较了各减排技术在碳达峰年前后的减排潜力及减排成本的变化趋势,以每5年为1个时间节点,对边际碳减排成本曲线进行分析,最终从技术选择的角度确定电力行业情景年的最优减排成本方案.结果 表明:筛选的13种电力行业技术在2020,2025,2030,2035年的总碳减排潜力为4.7亿,7.0亿,5.0亿,5.4亿t,对应平均碳减排成本为8,67,242,464元/t.其中,2020年技术的边际减排成本为-295～376元/t.从技术类型而言,各项减排技术在边际减排成本曲线(MACC)上表现出特异性,相较于系统灵活性提升和技术升级改造,电源结构优化具有更高的碳减排潜力及更低的碳减排成本.研究为电力行业在选择最优减排技术方案时提供了成本角度的数据参考.

全面推动实现减污降碳协同增效是新发展阶段我国兑现碳达峰碳中和庄严承诺、深入打好污染防治攻坚战、建设美丽中国的必然要求.环境污染物与二氧化碳排放的高度同源性是实现减污降碳协同增效的理论基础.本文首先就目标指标、管控区域、控制对象、措施任务、政策工具五个方面的协同性系统讨论了减污降碳协同增效的基本内涵.其次,着眼于当前大气环境治理与碳减排在中国的重要性,本文在国家层面讨论了二者的中长期协同控制路线图,阐述了重点协同区域的识别方法和重点部门的协同治理思路,系统提出了大气环境治理与碳减排的协同路径.再次,本文还就"无废城市"建设和生态保护这两个领域与碳减排的协同治理思路展开分析讨论.最后,针对减污降碳协同治理对政策体系的需求,提出了统筹优化减污降碳协同目标、建立协同法规标准、建立减污降碳协同管理制度三个方面的建议.本研究将有助于厘清各方对减污降碳协同增效的认识,对各级政府后续推进减污降碳协同治理工作提供理论和科学基础.

基于中国2011～2015年发电企业逐台燃煤机组基础信息、活动水平及控制技术等,建立了燃煤电厂NOx排放量计算方法和排放数据库.利用该方法,计算了2011～2015年逐个机组NOx排放量,分析了2010～2015年中国燃煤电厂NOx排放特征.结果表明:中国燃煤电厂NOx排放量自2010年的1073万t增加到2011年的1132万t,达到排放峰值,随后逐年下降,到2015年下降到522万t.燃煤电厂NOx排放地区分布不均衡,2015年内蒙、山东、江苏、江西、河南、河北、辽宁是排放量最大的省份,占中国燃煤电厂排放总量的48.8％.上海、江苏、天津、宁夏、山东、浙江和山西是排放强度最大的省份.从机组规模来看,单台容量在300～≤600MW之间的燃煤机组是NOx排放的主要来源,当机组装机容量从100MW提高到1000MW时,NOx平均排放绩效从2.91g/kWh降至0.48g/kWh,下降了近84％,这主要是由于装机容量越大的燃煤发电机组,电力工业技术水平和污染治理水平越高,NOx平均绩效越低,环境行为越好.

Based on the activity level and technical information of coal-fired power-generating units (CFPGU) obtained in China from 2011 to 2015, we, 1) analyzed the time and spatial distribution of SO2 and NOx emission performance of CFPGUs in China; 2) studied the impact of installed capacity, sulfur content of coal combustion, and unit operation starting time on CFPGUs’ pollutant emission performance; and 3) proposed the SO2 and NOx emission performance standards for coal-fired power plants based on the best available control technology. Our results show that: 1) the larger the capacity of a CFPGU, the higher the control level and the faster the improvement; 2) the CFPGUs in the developed eastern regions had significantly lower SO2 and NOx emission performance values than those in other provinces due to better economic and technological development and higher environmental management levels; 3) the SO2 and NOx emission performance of the Chinese thermal power industry was significantly affected by the single-unit capacity, coal sulfur content, and unit operation starting time; and 4) based on the achievability analysis of best available pollution control technology, we believe that the CFPGUs’ SO2 emission performance reference values should be 0.34 g/kWh for active units in general areas, 0.8 g/kWh for active units in high-sulfur coal areas, and 0.13 g/kWh for newly built units and active units in key areas. In addition, the NOx emission performance reference values should be 0.35 g/kWh for active units in general areas and 0.175 g/kWh for new units and active units in key areas.

碳排放权交易制度和排污许可制分别是中国二氧化碳和常规大气污染物排放源管理的核心制度,正处于顶层设计初步实施阶段,应以此为契机,探索两项制度的融合,研究建立基于排污许可证的碳排放权交易体系.结合最新改革形势,研究提出了建立基于捧排许可证的碳排放权交易体系应以降低制度设计和实施成本、减少政策实施阻力、提高政策实施效率、保证政策目标的顺利实现为出发点,充分考虑两项制度的定位、作用及衔接机制,分析关键结合点,以“构建协调一致的控制目标、建立统筹协调的技术方法、达到精简高效的管理效果”为原则,从明确法律基础、建立协调统一的技术方法、统一监管职责3个方面进行协调和整合.

以京津冀及周边地区水泥工业为研究对象,基于产排污系数法,建立了水泥工业主要大气污染物排放计算方法,对2016年该地区水泥工业主要大气污染物排放控制水平进行了分析.结果表明:京津冀及周边地区2016年水泥工业SO 2、NO x、PM(有组织)排放量分别达到3.2×104t、23.9×104t、9.7×104t,较2015年分别减少24.1％、18.2％、27.2％,各项污染物大幅下降.水泥工业PM无组织排放量占PM总排放量的45.4％,仍需要采取集中收集的方式加强治理.山东、河南是水泥工业SO 2、NO x、PM、PM 10、PM 2.5重点排放来源,应通过化解过剩产能降低污染排放.从各工艺来看,新型干法工艺应考虑采用高效脱氮脱硫技术、协同处置技术、高效大型袋式除尘技术等新技术,进一步降低各项污染物的排放量;粉磨站也需进一步提高污染治理水平.

以京津冀大气污染传输通道城市为研究对象,建立了燃煤电厂、燃煤锅炉、农村散煤三大污染源主要大气污染物排放计算方法,以2015年为基准年,梳理现有燃煤污染减排政策措施,对2017年"2+26"城市燃煤污染源SO2、NOx、PM、PM10、PM2.5的减排潜力进行了分析.结果表明:实施燃煤电厂超低排放改造、燃煤锅炉淘汰或改造、散煤改电(气)等措施后,"2+26"城市2017年燃煤SO2、NOx、PM、PM10、PM2.5排放量分别达到87×104t、56×104t、64×104t、45×104t、32×104t,预计比2015年分别减少44％、48％、33％、32％、30％.燃煤电厂、燃煤锅炉、农村散煤替代各项污染物减排比例分别在55％～70％、31％～38％、18％～21％,未来农村散煤治理的减排潜力还较大.从各城市情况来看,多数城市燃煤SO2、NOx减排主要来自燃煤电厂超低排放改造;保定、廊坊等城市燃煤颗粒物减排量较大,得益于散煤治理工作的大力推进.

基于中国2013～2015年27个省（区、市）平板玻璃企业的逐生产线基础信息、活动水平及污染物控制技术等数据,建立了平板玻璃主要大气污染物SO 2 、NO x 排放量计算方法和排放清单,使用蒙特卡洛法进行了不确定性分析.统计了平板玻璃产量、燃料使用量、燃料结构以及污染物控制技术,分析了排放特征与空间差异.结果表明:中国平板玻璃行业以天然气/煤气为主要燃料,平均单位产品能源消耗量为13.2kg标煤/重量箱,山西、内蒙古等省份较高;37%和42%的生产线分别安装了脱硫、脱硝设施,技术以烟气循环流化床、双碱法、SCR为主;SO 2 排放量先升后降,2014年达到16.84万t,2015年下降至13.67万t,湖北、浙江、河北、广东排放量较大;NO x 排放量持续下降,从2013年的37.47万t下降至2015年的28.38万t,河北、湖北、山东、广东排放量较大;SO 2 排放强度西南部地区高于其他地区,且有上升趋势,其他地区SO 2 排放强度整体下降;NO x 排放强度中西部地区较高.应加强高能耗、高排放以及高强度地区的污染控制力度.

This paper reviews the total atmospheric emission reduction work in China, and puts forward the management system framework to reduce the amount of atmospheric emissions based on environmental quality, including the total amount control model as the core of atmospheric quality improvement and the technology method to determine target indicators, the implementation mechanism and a complete set of management system of the differentiation and intensification, and the evaluation system as the core of environmental quality.

排污许可制度是发达国家普遍实行并证明行之有效的点源管理制度.本文在分析排污许可制度实践基础上,提出了排污许可制度改革的总体思路、基本原则、总体目标和主要任务,建议排污许可制度要以环境质量为约束、与现有企业环境管理制度相融合,真正让排污许可制度成为环境保护基础性制度.

Thermal power industry is a key industry for total emission control and the primary industry of main air pollutant re-duction. Emission reduction from thermal power industry offset the growth from other industries during "The 12th Five -Year Plan". Based on the analysis of current emission status, combined with thermal power industry policies and environment regula-tions, this research forecasted the additional emission, and designed 3 scenarios of feasible technology, emission standard and ul-tra-low emissions to estimate the reduction potential of thermal power industry during"The 13th Five-year Plan" period. Sug-gestions and opinions of reduction status are provided on the national and provincial level.

钢铁行业是NOx污染减排的重点领域.在预测钢铁行业未来发展趋势的基础上,基于情景分析法,设置3个NOx排放情景,估算出2020年不同情景下钢铁行业NOx排放量及不同控制措施的减排贡献.研究结果表明,未来钢铁行业产品产量的快速上涨加大了NOx减排压力.在不实施额外NOx控制措施的情况下,2020年钢铁行业NOx排放量约为108万t,相比2013年上涨9％.实施钢铁行业NOx排放控制措施可取得显著的减排效果,根据两种控制情景预计NOx的减排比例分别为5％和13％.淘汰落后产能和烧结烟气循环技术是NOx减排的最有效手段.

2012年全国NOx减排形势有所好转,NOx排放量首次出现"拐点",但下一步减排任务仍然十分艰巨。此外,改善大气环境也亟需加速NOx减排。需要根据分析出的NOx减排存在的四大症结,确定强化目标及中长期目标,进一步强化空间差异化管理,大幅降低行业污染物排放强度,促进减排科学化和精细化管理。

From the view point of externality internalization theory and breakeven analysis theory, the model of denitration electricity pricing is established consisting of fixed cost, variable cost and reduction of pollutant charge. Through extensive investigations on the operation of the denitration installations equipped in 103 existing thermal generating units totaling 43 000 MW, main factors contributing to the denitration cost are summarized, including the installed capacity, the denitrification rate, the construction period and the coal type.Moreover, the denitration cost of SCR and SNCR techniques for different time periods and different installed capacities is calculated. It is concluded that the price of 0.010 yuan/(kW·h) and 0.012 yuan/(kW·h) can be carried out for newly built power plants with SCR techniques and active power plants respectively, while the price of 0.006 yuan/(kW·h) should be adopted for all the power plants with the SNCR techniques. The conclusion may be of great importance to improve the policy for denitration electricity pricing.