The synergistic evaluation integrating air quality, human health, climate impact, and socioeconomic development is significant for green and low-carbon transition. Here, we quantified the contribution of pollutant emissions in 30 provinces (source) to PM2.5 concentration and related premature mortality in each 20 km grid (receptor) of China in 2020 by an integrated model for the first time. Further, we established a cross-province contribution matrix of health impact intensity (HII, PM2.5-related deaths per GDP). According to HII and CEI (carbon emission intensity, defined as CO2 emission per GDP) levels, 30 provinces were divided into 4 regions including LL, HL, LH and HH. In order to assess the synergy in air pollution and carbon emission, we established an index system consisting of ISEC-AC (index for synergistic assessment) and its two sub index: IHI (index for HII assessment), and ICE (index for CEI assessment). Results showed that the ISEC-AC was more easily influenced by IHI as the variance of IHI was much higher than that of ICE. Influenced by various factors, e.g., economic structure, population density, pollution transport, ISEC-AC exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity. In general, the ISEC-AC of southeast provinces was higher than that of central and western, indicating the environmental and climate impact per GDP was relatively lower in southeast China. For provinces, ISEC-AC of SH and GD were ~ 16 times higher than NX. For regions, due to low carbon emission intensity and health impact intensity, ISEC-AC of LL was the highest with 176; followed by HL (128), LH (126) and HH (77). Further, we figured out the main control problems and then put forward targeted synergetic control suggestions for air pollution and carbon emission from the perspective of energy structure, industry structure and industry layout, which can provide insights into future green and low-carbon policy making in China and other countries.

实施建筑领域CO2排放控制是推动我国2030年前实现碳排放达峰的关键举措.2020年我国建筑领域运行阶段CO2排放量为21.7×108 t,约占全国能源活动碳排放量的20％,其中直接排放6.9×108 t,间接排放14.8×108 t.随着城镇化发展水平和居民生活消费水平的不断提升,建筑领域CO2排放仍呈刚性增长态势.为明确建筑领域CO2排放达峰路径,综合考虑建筑领域发展现状和用能情况,以建筑运行中供暖、炊事等活动所需一次能源(煤炭、石油和天然气)消耗直接排放以及热电联产供暖、空调、照明、电梯、电器等外购热力和电力间接排放为核算范围,在预测不同阶段建筑发展规模、建筑能源消费、用能结构的基础上,分析未来碳排放变化趋势和达峰时间,提出达峰路径和重要政策举措.结果表明:①2010—2020年,我国建筑领域CO2排放量从13.2×108 t增至21.7×108 t,其中直接排放已于2017年达峰,间接排放仍在持续增长.②从建筑规模和节能降碳措施等角度分情景开展建筑领域碳排放达峰路径研究,预测建筑领域CO2排放将在2029—2030年左右达峰,峰值排放量为28.1×108～29.2×108 t,达峰后有2～3年的平台期.③低碳清洁取暖、可再生能源应用、建筑节能改造和合理控制建筑规模4项措施是建筑领域实现碳排放达峰的重要举措,4项措施的减排贡献率分别达到40.7％、27.1％、17.7％和14.5％.研究显示,2030年前,发展建筑可再生能源、强化建筑节能、合力控制建筑规模是建筑领域降碳的核心举措,而推动低碳清洁取暖是实现我国建筑领域降碳最主要的控制途径.

电力行业是我国最大的碳排放部门,碳排放量占全国碳排放总量的40％以上;同时,电力将是未来10年能源增长的主体,而这些新增用电与国计民生直接相关,属于刚性需求,是支撑我国经济转型升级和未来居民生活水平提高的重要保障.电力行业未来新增需求压力巨大,其碳排放峰值及达峰速度将直接决定2030年前全国碳排放达峰目标能否实现.统筹考虑社会经济发展、各部门用电需求、电源结构调整、发电标准煤耗变化等因素,采用基于情景分析的方法,开展电力行业碳排放趋势预测,识别碳减排的主要驱动因素,提出推动碳排放达峰的关键举措,为制定碳达峰目标背景下的电力行业碳排放控制路径提供参考.结果表明:①通过积极措施,电力行业碳排放能够在2030年左右达峰,在不考虑热电联产供热碳排放时,于2028—2031年达峰,峰值为43.2×108～44.9×108 t,较2020年增加3.2×108～4.9×108 t;考虑热电联产供热碳排放,则达峰时间为2031—2033年,峰值为50.7×108～53.0×108 t,较2020年增加4.9×108～7.2×108 t.②在电源结构不变的情况下,如到2030年降低2％左右的电力需求,达峰时间将提前4年左右.③提速风光新能源发展是实现2030年前碳达峰的必然选择,到2030年,提高风光发电、核电、水电、生物质、气电发电装机容量及发电量、节能降耗措施等各项措施的减排贡献率分别为55.3％、10.6％、9.2％、7.6％、5.7％、11.5％.研究显示,未来我国电力行业碳减排工作重点要聚焦于优化电源结构、推动形成绿色生产生活方式、提升用电效率、降低煤电机组能耗水平等方面.

煤化工行业是我国煤炭消费和CO2排放的主要贡献者之一,在2030年前实现碳达峰目标要求下,煤化工行业高碳排放的发展模式将不可持续且面临巨大挑战,开展煤化工行业CO2排放达峰路径研究、实现高碳能源的绿色低碳化利用成为亟待解决的问题.基于煤化工各子行业发展现状分析,综合考虑经济社会发展、节能低碳技术应用、原料和燃料结构调整等因素,采用下游部门需求法和项目法分别预测传统煤化工与现代煤化工各子行业未来发展规模,采用碳排放系数法预测不同情景下2021—2035年行业碳排放量变化趋势,判断行业实现碳达峰的关键措施、达峰时间和峰值.结果表明:①2019年我国煤化工行业碳排放量为5.4×108 t,占全国碳排放总量的4.8％.其中,传统煤化工碳排放量为3.6×108 t,现代煤化工碳排放量为1.8×108 t.②基准情景下,煤化工行业无法在2030年前实现碳达峰;强化控制情景下,通过采取一系列控碳措施,可推动煤化工行业在2025年左右提前达到碳排放峰值.③控制现代煤化工规模、优化行业用能结构、优化甲醇原料结构等措施是煤化工行业碳减排的三项主要措施,到2030年可分别减少碳排放0.50×108、0.16×108和0.08×108 t.研究显示,促进煤化工行业碳达峰应尽快实施控制现代煤化工发展规模、从源头减少传统煤化工产品需求、优化甲醇行业原料结构、优化煤化工用能结构、提高行业能效水平和促进产品固碳化等政策措施.

开展碳排放达峰路径研究,明确时间表、路线图、施工图,是支撑我国实现2030年前碳达峰目标的基础性研究工作.本文采取自上而下和自下而上相结合的方式,以满足社会经济高质量稳定发展需求和国家碳达峰碳中和双重目标为约束开展自上而下的宏观路径研究;以合计贡献了我国碳排放(不含港澳台地区数据)90％以上的电力、钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共6个重点行业以及建筑、交通2个重点领域为对象,开展自下而上的重点行业/领域碳达峰路径研究;通过上下路径反复迭代、行业间耦合优化,打通宏观路径与微观措施的联动和双向反馈,最终形成基于重点行业/领域的我国碳达峰路径.结果表明:为实现国家碳达峰、碳中和的目标愿景,需抓紧部署、大力推进包括清洁能源降碳、能效提升降碳、资源循环降碳、管理调控降碳等4类关键举措,方可实现我国碳排放量在2030年前达峰的目标,峰值较2020年增加5.0×108～7.0×108 t左右,达峰后将保持3～4年的峰值平台期.受需求与技术驱动,不同领域碳排放总量将梯次实现达峰,其中工业领域(含钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼、石化化工、煤化工共5个重点行业)预计将在"十四五"期间整体达峰,达峰后碳排放稳定下降;电力行业和交通、建筑领域碳排放均在2030年左右实现达峰.经测算,2021—2030年间,为推动碳达峰采取的4类关键措施预计需投入2.08×1013元;其中清洁能源降碳是最为有效的措施,同时也是成本最高的措施.为保障关键举措顺利落地,建议全面加大政策创新,逐步形成系统完善的碳总量控制与交易市场机制、绿色低碳标准体系、行业准入及产业结构政策体系、价格财税及投融资机制等.本研究分行业及领域的碳达峰路径研究成果及所识别的关键控碳减碳技术手段、措施和政策将为国家碳达峰路径设计提供技术支撑.

建立完善的、减污降碳相协同的管理制度是支撑全国碳排放高质量达峰的重要保障,有效控制新增碳排放是推动实现重点行业尽早达峰的关键.环境影响评价是我国源头防控的基础性制度,将温室气体管控要求纳入其中是现阶段推动减污降碳协同增效的可行途径及重要抓手.综合考虑国内外管理实践经验以及我国制度特点与管理需求,开展了温室气体环境影响评价技术方法研究.本文提出了系统性、全过程、协同性的三大温室气体评价基本原则,识别建设项目温室气体环境影响评价的主要影响因素,构建了强调高效、低碳、循环的温室气体环境影响评价指标体系,建立了包含项目分析与判断、影响因素识别、影响预测与技术分析、综合环境影响评价的评价方法体系.基于该方法,以山东省250万吨电解铝产能转移至云南省项目为例,开展碳排放环境影响评价分析,测算结果表明:若不考虑项目对云南省对外输电的影响,全国CO2减排量可达2574.4×104 t;如考虑项目对跨区输电的影响,则全国CO2净减排量将减至968.3×104 t;进一步考虑技术升级、地方煤炭消费政策等因素影响,还会得到差异明显的评价结果.研究显示,考虑不同评价目标、评价边界和影响因素可能会对全社会碳排放量环境影响评价结果产生显著影响,由此建议在开展相关评价时应立足实际需求,合理确定评价目标和边界.

"十三五"期间,国家以重点城市为突破口,分3批将"2+26"大气污染传输通道城市、汾渭平原所属的43个城市纳入国家清洁取暖试点城市范围,给予不同规模的中央财政支持,有效推动了重点区域的清洁取暖和打赢蓝天保卫战进程.本文基于渐进决策模型,对"十三五"以试点城市为代表的清洁取暖工作进展、环境改善效果和潜在返煤风险进行分析,提出一种基于环境改善和实施难度分析的"十四五"清洁取暖重点城市筛选方法.通过建立不同城市空气质量改善需求和城市实施难度指标,应用渐进分析决策模型,筛选出11个城市作为"十四五"清洁取暖新增重点城市,提出改造目标,为"十四五"北方地区冬季清洁取暖规划编制及有关政策制定提供技术支撑.

全面推动实现减污降碳协同增效是新发展阶段我国兑现碳达峰碳中和庄严承诺、深入打好污染防治攻坚战、建设美丽中国的必然要求.环境污染物与二氧化碳排放的高度同源性是实现减污降碳协同增效的理论基础.本文首先就目标指标、管控区域、控制对象、措施任务、政策工具五个方面的协同性系统讨论了减污降碳协同增效的基本内涵.其次,着眼于当前大气环境治理与碳减排在中国的重要性,本文在国家层面讨论了二者的中长期协同控制路线图,阐述了重点协同区域的识别方法和重点部门的协同治理思路,系统提出了大气环境治理与碳减排的协同路径.再次,本文还就"无废城市"建设和生态保护这两个领域与碳减排的协同治理思路展开分析讨论.最后,针对减污降碳协同治理对政策体系的需求,提出了统筹优化减污降碳协同目标、建立协同法规标准、建立减污降碳协同管理制度三个方面的建议.本研究将有助于厘清各方对减污降碳协同增效的认识,对各级政府后续推进减污降碳协同治理工作提供理论和科学基础.

城市空气质量达标是《大气污染防治法》的明确要求,也是保障广大人民群众身体健康的重要环境条件.提出了科学制定城市空气质量达标路线图的技术方法,涵盖大气污染关键问题识别与污染成因分析、空气质量改善目标制定、污染防治措施方案以及减排潜力分析等重要技术.以武汉市为例,在科学分析大气污染关键问题和污染成因的基础上制定空气质量达标路线图,提出武汉市空气质量达标应分3步走,并制定了详细的大气污染治理任务措施,为武汉市空气质量达标规划编制提供了重要的技术支撑.

中国首个针对CCUS(二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存)环境风险评价的指导文件《二氧化碳捕集、利用与封存环境风险评估技术指南(试行)》(简称《指南》),在中国在建和已建成的CCUS项目中发挥了重要指导作用,但其环境风险评价流程仍然存在实用性不强、科学性不足等问题.通过系统梳理、对比分析国内外CCUS环境风险评价流程及中国《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》(征求意见稿)建设项目风险评价流程,从流程结构优化、增加定量化评价方法、加强风险潜势预判、设定风险事故情形、采用风险预测手段等方面对《指南》提出完善建议.同时也指出CCUS本身的不确定性加大了环境风险定量评价的难度、中国CCUS环境风险评价流程对经济利益的关注有待加强等问题.

自《大气污染防治行动计划》实施以来,京津冀及周边地区针对民用散煤开展了一系列包括“煤改电”“煤改气”工程在内的清洁取暖改造工作.特别是20 1 7年以来财政部、住建部、生态环境部、国家能源局四部门分两批启动北方地区冬季清洁取暖试点工作,35个试点城市清洁取暖改造步伐加快.目前各地清洁取暖改造工作尚处于探索起步阶段,本文总结了当前工作中存在的问题,梳理了各地值得借鉴的实践经验,并在系统规划、科学管理、资金筹措、宣传动员等多方面提出建议,为扎实推进清洁取暖工作提供支撑.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period,the growth of energy production and consumption of China has slowed down,but the total amount of energy production and consumption are still increasing The coal-dominated energy structure has not changed The serious air pollution put forward higher requirements for energy development This paper discussed from the following aspects:the optimization of energy consumption structure,the adjustment of energy production layout,the pollution control of energy industry and so on,try to find the best strategy of coordinated development of energy and the environment.

煤炭的大量使用是影响我国大气环境质量的重要因素.为了实现我国大气环境质量改善,减少煤炭使用过程中的大气污染物排放量至关重要.“十三五”时期我国煤电产能严重过剩的形势以及大气污染物减排的要求,都对能源结构优化提出了迫切需求.建议结合能源供给侧改革,从严格控制新增煤电产能、淘汰落后煤电产能、推进民用部门煤改电三方面入手,在化解煤电产能过剩危机的同时,推动“十三五”期间全国大气环境质量的改善.

燃煤工业和生活锅炉(下称燃煤锅炉)是京津冀地区大气污染控制的重点,分析其污染物排放特征对燃煤锅炉的污染控制具有重要意义.对京津冀地区燃煤锅炉的容量、锅炉种类、除尘方式、实际除尘效率等技术分布信息进行了统计,在此基础上建立了基于技术分布信息的2012年京津冀地区燃煤锅炉大气污染物排放清单,并分析了技术特征对燃煤锅炉大气污染物排放的影响.结果表明:京津冀地区燃煤锅炉以10 t/h及以下的小容量锅炉为主,主要炉型为层燃炉,除尘方式以湿式除尘及多管旋风除尘为主;2012年京津冀地区燃煤锅炉的SO,、NOx、颗粒物、PM10和PM25排放量分别为90.81×104、30.88×104、31.46×104、14.64×104和8.07×104 t,排放主要集中于10 t/h及以下和35 t/h以上的锅炉;天津、石家庄、保定、唐山是锅炉污染物排放量最大的城市;供热、食品、化工、造纸是燃煤锅炉排放最集中的行业.京津冀地区不同城市锅炉的容量及行业分布差异明显,各城市对燃煤锅炉应因地制宜采取天然气替代、集中供热等措施,以控制燃煤锅炉的污染物排放.

国务院近日出台的《关于进一步推进排污权有偿使用和交易试点工作的指导意见》(以下简称《意见》)标志着我国开展了20余年的排污权交易试点探索工作终于取得了重大突破,这是环境市场制度的重大创新.本文对该《意见》进行了综合解读,主要包括《意见》出台的意义、主要内容、产生的影响以及对下一步开展工作的考虑.

The article is inclined to introduce an approach based on the generation performance standard(GPS)to allocate the total emissions allowance of the major airpollutants(SO2 and NOx)of the thermal powerindustry developed by the given author.As is known, allocation of the total emissions allowance is an important part of quantitative management of the total emissions. A well-laid-out allocation scheme can be expected to contribute to the effectiveness of the total emissions reduction. According to the current system of the total emission control, we have developed the said approach based on the GPS to allocate the total emissions allowance of the major air pollutants, such as SO2 and NOx in all the branches of the thermal powergeneration industry. The first step for carrying out the approach is to set the target of the total emissions according to the environmental planning or the prejudgment of the new emission source and emission reduction potential.The second step is to determine the total emission allowance for allocation, which has to be lower than the target predicted. And, the third step is to allocate the allowance to the powergeneration plants, enterprises and even the local governments. In doing so, it is necessary to work out all the allowance allocated to each department of the thermal power plantbased on the GPS demands and the expected power generation unit. To put the approach into practice,we have made careful analysis of the most sensitive factors that may influence the rationality of GPS in this paper. And, in turn,we have brought about three calculation methods and the corresponding GPS programs in view of the emission standard, the technical availability and the economic feasibility along with the emission reduction capacity and the stability of the operation. In addition,we have prepared three plans of SO2 and NOx emissions allowance allocation, seeing the difficulty when implementing the goal of generation performance and other relevant policies involving the implementation of the allocation measures. At this, the third plan tends to be necessary for the bestoption because ithelps to putthe mostefficientemission control at the most reasonable cost,which proves to be favorable for developing the emission trading market in a broader view.

<正>我国煤炭消费总量大、地区分布不均衡、消费结构不合理及技术水平低等因素带来了严重的大气污染问题。尤其是京津冀、长三角、珠三角等重点区域,由于煤炭消费和污染物排放过于集中,空气污染问题突出。在重点区域117个地级

Inacomprehensive analysis of the inter-provincial allowance allocation factors and principles,construct anatmospheric pollutants inter-provincial allowance allocation method in China based on DEA Model,A case study using statistic data in 2010,and the resultshows that this method is a quantitative objective and fair allocation method,reflecting the efficiency,taking into account regional differences and improvingair quality,provide a reference to China′s total emission control.

The environmental impacts of energy use over last decade and environmental damages cost by coal exploitation and use, which is 185.6 Yuan/t coal, were analyzed. The four key challenges of China's energy development were pointed out, and environmental protection targets in sustainable energy development to improve the environmental quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions were proposed. According to the main air pollutants emissions control targets, the possible constraints on coal consumption were discussed. Meanwhile, the strategic measures and policy recommendations to achieve green and low-carbon energy development were presented.

From 2005 until the end of 2008,total sulfur dioxide emissions(does not include Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan data) in China declined from 25.494 million tons to 23.212 million tons.This reduction completed 89.5% of theEleventh Five-Year Plan total pollution control goal.Among the reductions,total sulfur dioxide emissions from the power industry dropped about 20% compared to 2005;this completed 80% of the Eleventh Five-Year Plansulfur dioxide emission reduction targets for the power industry.In order to assess quantitatively the environmental benefits of the Eleventh Five-Year Plansulfur dioxide emission reductions in the power industry,the ATMOS acid deposition model was used to simulate the power industry sulfur dioxide emissions in 2005 and 2008.Simulation results showed that,due to the sulfur dioxide emission reductions in the power industry,the national sulfur deposition amount in 2008 was reduced by about 860,000 tons as compared to 2005,in which the sulfur deposition amount in the Chinese mainland was reduced by about 520,000 tons.The reduction amount was 17%.On average,0.2-0.3 tons of sulfur deposition were reduced per 1 ton of sulfur dioxide emission reduction.In addition,the area where the extent of sulfur deposition was more than 1.00 tons /km2 was significantly reduced compared to 2005,shrinking by about 620,000 square kilometers.