Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of China and 127 host economies from 2004 to 2019 at both national level and firm level, we investigate how bilateral investment treaties (BITs) between China and global economies affect China's outbound cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMA). Our results demonstrate a positive effect of BITs on CBMA and such a promoting effect varies across host countries with different institutional and economic settings. While the mostfavored-nation clause and umbrella clause are the underlying mechanisms accounting for the incentives of CBMA in the stage of pre-acquisitions, the expropriation and compensation clause drives the successful rate of CBMA. Further, non-state-owned enterprises display stronger incentive than state-owned enterprises.

Debt caused by the growing infrastructure projects in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries is a highly debated issue. Grounded in a latecomers’ innovation catching-up perspective, this study examines the effect of infrastructure development on innovation outputs within BRI countries. Based on country-level data from 2010 to 2021, we find that infrastructure development significantly enhances innovation performance in BRI countries. Notably, the effect is attributed to countries’ external debt. Countries with higher debt management capability, national solvency and debt utilization efficiency, can amplify the beneficial influence of infrastructure development on innovation performance. Furthermore, external debt not only serves as an input of physical capital but also acts as a catalyst for innovation by promoting technology absorption and industrial development. While China’s sovereign lending to these countries effectively promotes innovation, debt pressure remains manageable. This paper contrasts with the held notion that infrastructure development constitutes the debt crisis. Our results shed new light on the efficacy of external debt, the external debt results in an expansion of innovation catching-up patterns of BRI countries rather than debt crisis.

We study the impact of regional trade policy uncertainty on the product quality imported from ASEAN by Chinese enterprises. The research uses micro-enterprise-level data from CAFTA and employs the DID method for empirical tests. The analysis shows that China's FTA strategy has helped reduce regional trade policy uncertainty and significantly improved the quality of imported products. The quality-improvement effect varies based on ownership types, regions, factor densities and usage properties. An impact mechanism test reveals that the decline in regional trade policy uncertainty promotes the improvement in the product quality imported from ASEAN by Chinese enterprises through the competition effect and financial constraint mitigation effect.

This paper investigates the impact of international education exchange on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMA). Using a comprehensive panel dataset covering 141 countries from 2006 to 2018, we find that international students studying in China have a positive impact on China’s outbound CBMA. Such an effect operates through diplomatic relations, economic cooperation and cultural convergence as the underlying mechanisms. The effect of international education exchange is more pronounced for degree-seeking students than for non-degree-seeking students. Moreover, non-degree-seeking scholarship recipients exert a stronger influence on CBMA than degree-seeking scholarship recipients.

产业结构升级是农业现代化的重要变量,政府产业政策是推动产业升级和现代化的关键.本文对新结构经济学"一个中心、三个基本点"的现代化理论框架进行拓展,构建了一个产业政策推动农业现代化的动态分析框架,探讨了乡村振兴示范县和农业科技现代化先行县——广州市从化区,是如何以荔枝产业为着力点,通过"选择性——混合性——功能性"的动态产业政策,推动产业结构攀升并最终实现农业现代化.研究表明,在农业产业结构升级的不同阶段,产业政策的类型和作用也有所差异.粗放生产期,禀赋结构以劳动密集为主.转型发展和加速升级期,政府通过选择性产业政策,自上而下选择产业并定向提供财政资金,形成政府主导、市场为补充的产业发展模式,资本密集度有所增加,经济基础现代化初步实现.稳定成熟期,政府实施功能性产业政策,减弱行政管理,强化市场主导力量,而随着产业结构的不断攀升,也产生了与之相匹配的上层建筑现代化.本研究将产业政策变迁、农业结构升级与农业现代化的关系从静态讨论扩展为多阶段动态分析,并为构建具有自生能力的现代乡村产业体系,提升农村产业链供应链现代化水平提供有益启示.

党的二十大报告指出,"坚持以文塑旅、以旅彰文,推进文化和旅游深度融合发展."这对以文化为桥梁加快三地融合互通,推动旅游产业繁荣发展,支持港澳抓住国家发展带来的历史机遇,推进粤港澳大湾区建设意义重大.本文利用粤港澳大湾区2016-2021年的统计数据,借鉴成熟的旅游产业和文化产业发展的评价指标对大湾区进行评价,引入耦合协调度模型量化评估文旅融合发展水平.研究发现,粤港澳大湾区文旅融合发展仍面临空间极化和虹吸效应突出、外围城市产业协调性不足和湾区文旅耦合发展水平较低等问题,亟需通过加强政府统筹、突出地方特色、共建人文湾区、注重历史情怀、强化品牌营销、推动数字赋能六方面措施,促使大湾区文旅融合向纵深推进.

本文基于国际友城作为中国对外交流合作的重要载体的典型事实,利用中国企业海外并购数据考察国际友城的企业海外并购效应及其作用机制.研究结果显示:国际友城对中国企业海外并购事件数量和交易规模具有显著的促进作用;异质性检验表明,国际友城的并购事件促进效应在企业产权中不具有分化效应,但并购规模效应集中于国有企业,而国际友城的促进作用集中于"一带一路"沿线国家,国际友城的促进作用兼具边际效应和增量效应;机制检验发现,国际友城通过促进民间互访、民间经贸交流、民间文化交流等作用机制,对中国企业海外并购产生影响;拓展性检验表明,国际友城与政府外交存在互补性,二者对中国企业海外并购的影响相互促进;制度性约束检验表明,优越的东道国制度环境有助于提升国际友城的并购事件促进效应,但对并购交易规模影响不显著.本文研究拓展了对外经贸关系,特别是企业海外并购的制度分析框架,为推动中国企业"走出去"和构建高水平开放型经济体制提供政策启示.

The corruption control level of the host government is an important factor that affects the “going out” of China’s enterprises. Based on the rigorous measurement of the corruption control level of various countries over the years, this paper analyzes the impact of corruption control of the host country on overseas mergers and acquisitions（M＆As） of China’s enterprises. The research shows that the higher the corruption control level of the host country, the more conducive to overseas M＆As of China’s enterprises. Under the constraints of institutional quality, the impact of corruption control of the host country on overseas M＆As of China’s enterprises presents a non-linear relationship: with the improvement of the level of rule of law and regulatory quality of the host country, the impact of corruption control shifts from inhibition to promotion; the improvement of government effectiveness strengthens the promotion effect of corruption control; with the improvement of voice and accountability, the promotion effect of corruption control is also gradually enhanced.

自由贸易协定建设是中国扩大对外开放,深化与世界互动的重要举措.文章选取2000—2018年全球134个国家和地区的面板数据,基于马克思国际价值理论构建各国(地区)与中国的国际不平等交换程度指数,继而检验与中国签署自由贸易协定对国际不平等交换的影响效应.结果表明,与中国签署自由贸易协定能显著降低其与中国之间的国际不平等交换程度,即相比于没有与中国签署自由贸易协定的国家(地区),与中国签署自由贸易协定的国家(地区)和中国之间的国际不平等交换程度减少了23.07％,此效应主要体现在单位价值商品所包含劳动时间低于中国的国家(地区)上.究其机制,该效应源于与中国签署自由贸易协定能够显著提高该国(地区)与中国的贸易规模,减少该国(地区)与中国进出口商品种类的差异.进一步将上述效应与美国、日本、巴西、俄罗斯进行对比后发现,自由贸易协定对国际不平等交换程度的缓解效应并不具有普遍性,因国家(地区)而异,与中国签署自由贸易协定的缓解效应大于其他四个国家.文章的研究结论有效地反驳了"中国威胁论""中国新殖民主义论"等观点.

随着全球价值链重构加速,各国相继出台竞争性产业政策,以推进产业链升级和价值链位势攀升.中国作为新兴经济体和最大的发展中国家,在维护自由贸易和多边主义的过程中,虽有大国赶超的历史经验,但全球化纵深发展催生出不同于以往的现实约束,亟待思考破局之道.基于中国参与全球价值链的历史实践,通过文本分析法与比较分析法研析当前治理环境的约束特征并提出战略选择.研究发现,直接参与工业现代化进程、推动产业结构转型升级、专攻全球价值链特定环节和对标全球价值链分工体系有助于中国深度嵌入全球价值链,但全球价值链科技藩篱高筑、纵向分工萎缩而横向竞争加剧、协调机制失衡和缺乏治理共识等现实约束阻碍中国参与全球价值链治理进程.研究表明,中国亟待加强国际科技创新治理、聚焦价值链重点产业治理、统筹国内外平衡治理和深化区域合作协同治理.

By virtue of its advanced technological foundation, spatial form of blending virtual-reality and unique information storage mode, the Metaverse has impacted the traditional urban governance mode. According to the logic of“Technology empowerment-Demand driven-Governance reconstruction”, the Metaverse expands the boundaries of urban governance by relying on digital twin technology, innovates the concept of urban governance by relying on expanding reality technology, enriches urban governance tools by relying on blockchain technology, and reshapes the urban governance process by relying on “virtual control”. There has formed an intelligent urban governance path of“Find problems-Immediately feedback-Simulate-Trend predict-Make the decision”, thus, Metaverse governance has innovative features such as subject coordination, full cycle process, and flat mechanism. However, in the process of Metaverse enabling urban governance, there are still hidden concerns such as the difficulty in guaranteeing digital security and privacy, the easy erosion of government agencies’ interests, the increasing pressure of product content supervision, and the deepening of social inequality. To this end, China’s future urban governance should continue to follow the evolution idea of intelligence, precision and convenience, and achieve breakthroughs in more application scenarios, such as emergency problem response, ecological environment management, tourism order regulation, urban spatial planning and smart government construction. At the same time, we should pay attention to strengthening the compatibility between Metaverse and urban governance from the aspects of scientific and technological research,institutional innovation, content supervision, and public goods provision, so as to improve the level of intelligent governance and the ability of modern governance.

本文基于金融生态学和空间溢出效应的视角,采用2006-2018年国别面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型考察东道国金融生态发展对中国海外并购的影响效应.研究发现,东道国金融生态对中国企业海外并购存在显著的地区内效应和空间溢出效应,即中国企业对东道国的海外并购不仅受到东道国自身金融生态状况的影响,还受到周边国家金融生态的溢出影响.其中,东道国金融深度和金融规模对中国企业海外并购同时具有直接效应和间接效应,东道国金融效率和金融监管具有显著的直接效应.机制检验发现,东道国金融生态发展通过缓解融资约束、提高企业信息搜寻水平等机制对中国企业海外并购产生影响.异质性检验发现,东道国金融生态发展基于经济发展水平、金融开放水平和"一带一路"沿线分布的差异性存在异质性影响.拓展性检验发现,东道国金融生态对中国企业的并购成功率同样具有地区内效应和空间溢出效应.本研究为推动中国企业"走出去"战略的高质量发展提供理论指引和经验参考.

技术"奇点"的存在使得人工智能将对全球经济运行及其治理模式带来深刻影响,必须对此提前谋划、前瞻治理.人工智能具有自主学习能力、低应用知识门槛和强大的推理能力三大技术特征,它们在经济领域转化为开发层面的"马太效应"、应用层面的"多中心化"和效用层面的"效率最大化"三大特征.人工智能基于其"技术—经济"特征将对全球经济治理秩序带来三大冲击:一是大国利益分配争夺激化,"中心-外围"格局失衡加剧;二是主权国家主体地位遭到削弱,非国家行为体的权力进一步增强;三是工具理性收益超越价值理性,机制设置面临人机冲突.据此,须从三方面应对人工智能冲击带来的全球经济治理秩序重构:首先,以智能技术赋能新型经济全球化,塑造公正的利益分配格局.其次,推动形成多元协同的权力结构,适应"多中心化"治理模式.最后,以预防性和可被解释为原则,强化监管人工智能参与机制设置.应以"技术向善"为治理目标,以"多边协作"为治理手段,充分发挥人工智能的"补充人"作用,审慎运用其"取代人"功能,绝不允许其在社会经济决策中扮演"超越人"角色.

党的二十大胜利召开后,粤港澳大湾区建设踏上新征程,并朝着高质量发展典范的目标迈出坚实步伐.本文从产业链供应链合作衔接、协同创新效能和人才医疗服务合作三个方面,对粤港澳大湾区发展的典型特征、面临的问题与挑战进行剖析,并基于高质量发展的视角,有针对性地提出推进机制对接、坚持创新引领、强化产业支撑、畅顺交通联络、激发市场活力、深化合作交流和完善安全保障七方面政策建议,以期助推粤港澳大湾区建设走深走实.

Enhancing the modernization level of industrial and supply chains can effectively enhance the international competitiveness of China's industries.The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is the convergence point of domestic and international dual circulations,and has outstanding advantages in cultivating a modernized industrial system and effectively keeping the coherence of international regulations and institutions.However,there are still shortcomings in the formulation of regulations for collaborative development,convergence of supply chain management mechanisms and the modernization level enhancement.In order to better promote cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area with regulatory coherence and promote the modernization of the industrial and supply chains,this paper analyzes the status quo and specific issues of industrial regulatory coherence and institutional connectivity within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from three aspects:industrial chain cooperation,supply chain synergy and modernization level enhancement,based on the theory of regional integration and regional governance.The study believes that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has made significant progress in the top-level design of industrial chain cooperation,supply chain synergy rules,and innovation factor circulation rules.However,there are problems such as homogenous industrial development,insufficient customs clearance convenience,and temporary bottlenecks in the alignment of modernization standards.The study shows that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should accelerate the alignment of industrial chain upgrade rules,achieve integrated development of the industrial chain,continue to put supply management rules in order,build a stable supply chain system,promote the regulatory coherence of industrial modernization development,jointly enhance the scientific research strength of the three locations,promote the smooth flow of various factors,boost the modernization and upgrading of industrial and supply chains to achieve new breakthroughs,and establish new advantages in participating in international competition and cooperation.

This paper studies the supply chain structure design for a proprietary component manufacturer (PCM) in a global environment. The PCM, producing component with patent protection and/or superior quality, chooses to enter into an overseas market to enhance revenue. There are three supply chain structures available to the PCM: (1) monopoly where the PCM establishes a downstream manufacturing subsidiary to produce and sell the end product, (2) component supplier where the PCM supplies component to a local original equipment manufacturer (OEM), and (3) dual distributor where the PCM supplies component to the OEM but also produces a competing end product. Our analysis suggests that two important features in a global environment, i.e., the global tax disparity and the organizational structure, have significant impacts on the PCM's supply chain structure design and profits. If the downstream has a tax advantage, it is optimal for the PCM to directly enter into the downstream market with the structure of monopoly. As the downstream tax rate increases, the other two structures, i.e., component supplier and dual distributor, become more attractive. We show that centralization makes the dual distributor and monopoly structures more desirable. However, the OEM may be driven out of the market and the dual distributor structure is infeasible when the downstream tax rate is high enough. Contrary to our traditional wisdom, decentralization may benefit the PCM under certain circumstances. (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

为进一步推动深入学习贯彻党的二十大会议精神，《南方经济》编辑部特邀请广东经济学界各大高校和科研院所的知名专家与优秀中青年学者，围绕“二十大”报告中涉及经济建设的重要部署，以系列笔谈形式，开展研究阐释。本期为系列笔谈的第三期，邀请来自广东外语外贸大学何传添、韩永辉、陈伟光，广东财经大学黄晓凤、黄瑜，广东金融学院李文秀、张呈磊、项后军共八位专家学者，分别就超大规模市场优势、新发展格局、新安全格局等主题，畅谈各自的观点与体会。

元宇宙是基于前沿科学技术而形成与现实世界相平行的虚拟社会空间,是未来元宇宙经济发展的重要载体.为更好地提升元宇宙经济发展空间、规范元宇宙经济治理秩序,本文立足于经济学研究基本范式,探究元宇宙经济系统的层次架构,剖析元宇宙经济的独特运转规律以及可能引发的全球经济治理新问题,进而提出全球元宇宙经济健康发展的治理方向与路径.元宇宙经济是依托现实经济体并受制于全球经济治理体系,在数字孪生、扩展现实等底层技术以及Web 3.0互联网理念基础上,围绕数字身份、数字产品、数字资产、数字货币而展开生产、消费、交换与分配等经济活动的总和,呈现出超越实体经济的"创作者驱动""认同决定价格""数据边际收益递增""去中心化与中心化共治"等特征.同时,元宇宙独特的经济发展规律可能引发垄断竞争与超级权力、经济利益与道德失范、规模经济与跨境治理以及金融创新与金融监管之间的矛盾,并诱发全球经济秩序紊乱.因此,全球经济体应以开放包容与合作共赢为原则,在技术标准、市场规则、道德规范等领域提前谋划元宇宙经济的治理秩序,共同承担元宇宙经济体系有序发展的治理责任,合力打造元宇宙人类命运共同体.

关联担保是金融市场的一种重要信用机制,有助于提高企业融资能力和投资水平,但也会给担保企业带来债务风险,限制其创新和发展.通过关联担保风险管控对担保行为加以规范,是趋利避害、促进企业创新的有效途径.文章依据"法与金融"的理论脉络,以《关于加强企业担保圈贷款风险防范和化解工作的通知》作为准自然试验,使用2009-2019年沪深A股上市企业微观数据,构建双重差分模型分析关联担保风险管控对企业创新的影响.研究发现:(1)关联担保风险管控能够显著提升企业的创新能力,该促进效应主要体现为除外观设计型专利外的各类专利申请量的增加;(2)关联担保风险管控能够通过规避债务违约风险、降低经营环境不确定性、防止管理层短视和推动企业联盟合作四个渠道促进企业创新;(3)关联担保风险管控能克服大股东代理成本高、机构投资者持股比例低的内部治理缺陷,从而激励企业创新;(4)担保圈法规的创新激励效应离不开司法保护,且在保险市场发展较好时,该法规更能提高企业的实质性创新水平.文章为统筹金融风险防范和高水平企业创新、保障经济稳中向好发展提供了一定的决策参考.

当前,中国稳就业及保民生压力巨大,工业智能化转型升级能否促使中国兼顾"促增长"与"保民生"的发展目标,对推动经济实现平稳增长与共同富裕至关重要,据此有必要准确认识工业智能化对宏观经济可能带来的创造性与破坏性双重影响.本文在界定工业智能化本质的基础上构建包含异质性劳动力、异质性资本、技术研发与转化等特征的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟工业智能化投资专有技术冲击对中国宏观经济的影响机制.研发结果表明,工业智能化通过提高要素生产率、促进产品研发与创新等方式促进经济总产出,但同时也降低了对传统生产资本和非研发型劳动力的需求,引发收入差距扩大、劳动收入份额下降等民生问题,影响经济总需求.进一步研究发现,适度工业智能化更有利于中国兼顾实现"促增长"和"保民生".反事实分析表明,充分重视创新研发战略及研发型人才的培养,可有效调节工业智能化的破坏性效应,促使经济体更好地实现可持续与高质量发展.