This paper studies the impact of deep trade agreements (DTAs) on services trade. Using detailed information on the industry-level services trade and the content of the trade agreement over the period 2000 to 2019, the empirical analysis shows that services trade between partners that sign an agreement with the highest depth increases by 29.3%. We find significant heterogeneity in the DTAs' effects on services trade across industries. Furthermore, we find, in general, DTAs divert services trade away from non-member countries. However, there is supportive evidence of negative trade diversion effects in some service industries. These findings may have important consequences for quantifying the welfare impacts of DTAs.

Given the intensifying global discourse on the environmental impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries, this paper employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method to examine the impact of FDI liberalization on firms’ pollution emissions. Using firm-level panel data from 1998 to 2007, aligned with the 2002 Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries, our study reveals that FDI liberalization significantly reduces firms’ pollution emissions. This reduction operates through two primary channels: the scale effect, where increased operational scale and shared costs of pollution control equipment lead to lower emissions; and the technology spillover effect, which enhances management efficiency, boosts R&D investments, influences new product development, and narrows technological gaps. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analysis indicates that these effects are more pronounced among firms with higher absorptive capacity, foreign-invested firms, and those with elevated pollution levels. These results provide robust support for the Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHH) within the context of developing countries. Our findings suggest that promoting FDI liberalization is a crucial strategy for developing countries to achieve the dual goals of economic growth and environmental sustainability. The study underscores the importance of facilitating technology transfer and enhancing firms’ capacity to absorb external innovations.

This study examines the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on China's export potential at the product level. Using country-product-level data from the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives d'Informations Internationales-Base pour l'Analyse du Commerce International (CEPII-BACI), which includes 5,049 product types across 196 economies from 2007 to 2022, it explores the trade effects of the BRI and its mechanisms from the perspective of global value chains. The results indicate that the BRI has increased China's product export potential significantly to participating countires. The BRI has had the greatest impact on capital goods and labor- and capital-intensive industries. The effect has been most pronounced in China's exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Europe. The mechanism analysis reveals that the BRI has improved the division of labor in the global value chains for participating countries along the BRI, strengthened China's position in their output supply chains, and stimulated the growth of China's exports.

This study examines how trade policy uncertainty (TPU) affects firms' pollution emissions. The result shows that, first, the TPU reduction significantly reduces firm-level pollution emissions which robustness checks corroborate; second, the negative effects are realized through the export effect and innovation effect. On the one hand, the TPU reduction encourages firms' export value and quality, which enables firms to switch to cleaner production patterns. On the other hand, it also stimulates firms' innovation, allowing them to increase energy efficiency. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects are greater for state-owned firms, firms with high environmental consciousness, and firms in more polluting industries.

This paper systematically investigates the impact of manufacturing digitalization on the wage income of enterprises with different income distributions in China and its mechanism based on the matched data of the Annual Survey of Manufacturing Enterprises（ASME） and World Input-Output Database（WIOD） from 2000 to 2014 using unconditional quantile regression. The study finds that the digitalization of manufacturing industry contributes to the growth of wage income, but has the greatest impact on enterprises with high wage income levels, thus significantly widening the wage income gap between enterprises and showing a strong ‘Matthew effect’. After a series of robustness tests and endogeneity discussions, this conclusion still holds. The effect of digitalization of manufacturing on the wage income gap between enterprises varies by enterprise ownership type, regional distribution, capital intensity, and internal management costs. Further mechanistic tests demonstrate that manufacturing digitalization widens the wage income gap between enterprises through the productivity channel, the innovation channel, and the output scale channel. This paper provides micro-level evidence to objectively assess the economic benefits of digitalization in China’s manufacturing industry, and has important policy implications for the rational adjustment of distribution relations and smooth digital transformation of manufacturing industry.

数字化时代的互联网技术革新显著推动了居民家庭消费行为的变化.基于2010—2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据,运用跨期双重差分法考察了互联网普及对中国家庭消费的影响.研究发现:(1)互联网普及显著促进了中国家庭的消费,这一正向效应在更换关键指标测算、运用断点回归方法、替换估计样本等一系列稳健性检验中保持稳健可靠.(2)互联网普及对中国家庭消费的影响因家庭收入结构和消费结构而呈现出异质性特征.其中,互联网普及的消费促进效应更多地作用于中、高收入家庭,互联网普及对耐用品消费和高端服务消费的影响程度更大.(3)互联网普及主要通过提高居民收入和减少信息不对称两个渠道促进中国家庭消费.上述主要结论对当前缓解消费不足、释放居民消费潜力、促进消费升级提供了有益借鉴.

The purpose of this research is to determine the impact of trade openness on economic growth; nevertheless, the study of the trade openness and economic growth nexus in Madagascar is still ongoing. As a result, the link between trade openness and economic growth has been intensively researched, with conflicting and inconclusive results. This study uses the Vector Error Correlation Model techniques for the period 1993 to 2020. Specifically, the empirical estimated results are sound evidence that there exists a long-run cointegration among the variables. Our empirical findings further depict that trade openness has a negative effect on economic growth in Madagascar. Moreover, this study demonstrates a positive and significant complementary relationship between inflation, FDI net inflow, and Labor force participation in strengthening economic growth. The study concluded with the recommendation that policymakers should develop and execute trade laws that are aimed at regulating various sources of import and export in the country.

近年来,关于最低工资政策的影响因素、效果评估等研究大量涌现,然而缺乏针对新近研究进展的系统归纳.同时,围绕最低工资政策短期内的效率损失与制度优化效果、长期的福利改善等方面的讨论也莫衷一是.本文聚焦最低工资政策调整引致劳动力成本及调整成本变化等渠道,从劳动力市场效应、企业行为和多维福利效应等方面进行归纳和述评.在文献分析的基础上,本文围绕该领域的研究不足和可供拓展的方向进行了阐述,以期为全面理解最低工资政策调整的时空差异及其经济影响提供有益借鉴.

本文以外资管制放松政策为准自然实验,基于1997-2015年"中国健康与营养调查"微观数据库样本,采用三重差分法,系统研究了外资进入对中国正规与非正规就业者工资收入差距的影响及其作用机制.研究发现:相比受外资进入影响较小的地区及正规就业,外资进入政策对受其影响较大地区非正规就业者的工资收入产生了负面影响,从而显著扩大了二者的工资收入差距.在经过一系列有效性检验及稳健性检验后,这一结论依旧成立.外资进入对该收入差距的政策效应因地理区位、非正规就业类型及企业规模而异.进一步的机制检验证明,外资进入通过人力资本及以家庭背景、户籍类型为代表的信息获取渠道扩大了该工资收入差距.本研究为客观评估中国近年来外资进入的经济效益提供了微观证据,对劳动力市场灵活性和安全性的改革调整具有重要的政策含义.

通过深度挖掘1995—2014年CEPII-BACI数据库中中国与"一带一路"沿线国的农产品贸易数据,综合运用引力模型等前沿实证分析方法,刻画分析了人民币汇率波动对中国农产品出口贸易的影响及渠道机制,以期有效推进"一带一路"倡议中中国与沿线国之间农产品贸易的开展.结果表明:人民币汇率波动幅度的增加将显著降低农产品出口贸易额.随后的稳健性检验中将滞后一期的汇率波动纳入实证分析,仍旧发现汇率波动与农产品出口的负相关关系.随后将CPI作为中间变量对汇率传导机制进行了实证分析,发现CPI的降低将使得该国的农产品进口量减少.

本文利用CEPII-BACI数据库中2000-2015年中国与175个国家和地区的双边贸易数据,通过构建扩展的引力模型,刻画分析了经济政策不确定性波动对中国出口技术复杂度的影响及渠道机制,以期促进中国出口贸易的转型升级.结果 表明:经济政策不确定性波动的增加会显著抑制中国的出口技术复杂度,而在内生性检验和稳健性检验中,回归结果仍然保持一致.随后的影响机制分析中,本文发现经济政策不确定性波动会通过抑制制度质量导致出口技术复杂度降低.

通过深度挖掘2000-2007年中国工业企业数据库与中国海关统计数据库相匹配的企业面板数据,探索企业出口贸易对企业就业的影响.首先分析了企业是否出口及不同的出口状态对企业就业规模的一系列影响.其次,分别从企业的出口贸易强度、出口产品种数、出口目的国数量等多方面测度了企业参与出口贸易对其内部就业的影响效应及作用机制.基于产品异质性层面,研究发现最终品出口的增加对企业就业规模的影响大于中间品出口.此外,企业贸易伙伴国的一系列差异化特征以及企业所属行业的要素密集度特征也会对企业的就业规模产生重要影响.

为适应当今社会对应用型外贸人才的需求，各高校对国际经济与贸易专业实践教学体系纷纷进行改革，但实践教学过程中还存在一些不足和困难，导致教学现状与市场需求出现了较大的差距。基于此，本文从实践教学目标体系、实践教学内容体系、实践教学保障体系和实践教学评估体系四个方面探讨了国际经济与贸易专业实践教学体系的创新策略。

摘.要:以市场为导向的实践型和复合型人才的需求对中国各高校的外贸人才培养提出了更高的要求,中国高校实践教学体系设计的科学性、系统性等问题使得教学改革具有其内在的重要性和必要性.文章针对改革现存问题提出以市场为导向的改革方案及建议,旨在为后续国际经济与贸易专业实践教学的改革方案提供可行思路.

作为国际公共产品供给的重要载体,国际经济组织在诸如贸易、金融和发展等领域的国际公共产品供给方面发挥了不可替代的作用.然而现实中,国际经济组织的运作也面临着诸多批评.本文将集体委托—代理理论引入对国际经济组织的研究,在对国际经济组织政策产出所嵌套的委托—代理关系进行分析的基础上,基于3×1的集体委托—代理模型,对国际经济组织运作的困境进行了深刻剖析,推出了一系列具有较强现实解释意义的命题,并提出了改进国际经济组织运作现状的一些启示.

嵌入全球价值链是否是企业提高生产率的更好选择是当前颇具现实意义和理论价值的一个话题.本文基于2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库和海关进出口数据库的匹配数据,结合倾向评分匹配对该问题做了较为细致的解答,以期为中国企业走出"价值洼地",进而实现向微笑曲线两端延伸提供微观经验指导.结果显示:嵌入全球价值链的确会使企业的全要素生产率发生"溢价",并且,该效应在时间上存在延续性,在程度上具有渐进性,但这种提升作用很有可能仅是企业通过生产工艺流程和组织管理模式等非技术性创新因素简单"改进"劳动生产效率而非以技术性创新因素实质提升资本生产效率以及深化资本的结果;不同嵌入路径下企业生产率的获得情况存在差异,其中,先出口然后再以中间品进口进一步嵌入全球价值链的企业所获得的生产率收益最大;嵌入全球价值链对企业生产率的影响不单单局限于事后,亦同样存在于事前,这可能与其在嵌入之前所做的筹备工作有关.

基于2000～2006年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库的匹配数据,在企业异质性框架下,综合运用Kernel倾向评分匹配和倍差法,从进入和退出两个维度全面考察了中间品进口动态对企业劳动力需求的影响.研究结果表明,企业退出中间品进口市场对其劳动力需求的影响通常表现为显著的、滞后一年的负效应,而与之相反的进入行为对企业劳动力需求的影响则表现为显著的正效应,并且,这两种影响在时间上存在延续性,在程度上具有渐进性.进一步比较还发现,企业退出中间品进口市场所引起的劳动力需求变动不论是在短期还是在长期均小于企业的进入行为.有鉴于此,给予企业中间品进口动态以足够的重视在当前中国劳动力市场供需矛盾日渐突出的现实背景下显得尤为重要.

基于企业就业的二元边际视角,利用高度细化的关税数据和投入产出表数据,测算中国制造业最终品和投入品贸易自由化水平,并在考虑企业异质性的基础上,实证分析1998--2007年中国制造业最终品和投入品贸易自由化对企业就业变动的影响.结果表明:贸易自由化对不同生产率企业的就业变动的影响存在显著差异,具体而言,会引起低生产率企业的就业损失和高生产率企业的就业创造,同时导致低生产率企业死亡率上升以及高生产率企业死亡率下降;相较于投入品贸易自由化,最终品贸易自由化对企业就业变动的影响效应更大.

基于1995-2010年CEPⅡ数据库中的贸易流量数据,将倍差法引入贸易引力模型,分别从中国内地和香港特别行政区两个角度实证分析了CEPA对中国内地和香港的净贸易效应,也即“平均处理效应”.更进一步,为了得到更精确的计量结果,本文采用泊松极大似然估计法纠正零贸易流带来的估计偏差.结果表明,CEPA对中国内地和香港均具有一定的贸易创造效应,然而却不存在贸易转移效应的证据,因而总体上提高了两地的福利水平.具体的,CEPA对中国内地和香港的“平均处理效应”分别为87.9％和8.5％,即CEPA对中国内地—香港的双边贸易具有显著的促进作用,而且更能够提高香港在中国内地的贸易地位.因此,积极推进和完善CEPA无论对中国内地还是香港均具有重要的实际意义.

本文采用细分到HS-6位数产品层面的CEPII数据库中机电产品的贸易数据,通过实证研究分析了中国与19个国家FTA的建立对双边贸易流量和贸易模式的影响.为了使计量结果更精确及更好地衡量全球生产网络,本文对贸易引力模型进行了拓展,并采用随机效应和固定效应消除个体层面的异质性偏差.实证研究发现,FTAs的建立不仅能促进双边机电产品贸易流量的增长,而且对机电产品产业内贸易的发展也有积极的推动作用.因此,中国应继续实施自贸区战略并逐步扩大区域经济合作范围,在全球化生产中重新定位发展自身比较优势,进一步增强区域经济合作所带来的福利效应.