This paper uses the data from the China Household Tracking Survey（CFPS） from 2014, 2016 and 2018 to explore the impact of new urbanization on micro-common prosperity of Chinese households. It is found that new-type urbanization effectively promotes common prosperity and has the most significant impact on the dimension of material affluence. From the perspective of the mechanism, new-type urbanization mainly affects common prosperity by promoting the development of digital inclusive finance, economic growth, consumption level and entrepreneurial activity. The heterogeneity analysis showed that the new urbanization had a promoting effect on the common prosperity of the eastern and western regions, but the effect on the central region was not significant. There is a “Matthew Effect” in new-type urbanization, which has a stronger effect on households with higher levels of common prosperity. This paper provides new ideas and policy directions for promoting common prosperity.

城乡收入差距的存在是城乡发展不均衡的重要体现,缩小城乡收入差距是我国实现2035年远景目标的必然要求.本文基于2005—2018年285个地级以及上城市的数据,将"宽带中国"战略作为一项准自然实验,利用倾向得分匹配双重差分(PSM-DID)模型评估网络基础设施建设对城乡收入差距的影响.研究结果表明:第一,"宽带中国"战略对城乡收入差距的影响系数显著为负值,即网络基础设施建设缩小了城乡收入差距,经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依然可靠.第二,网络基础设施建设显著缩小了中西部城市、南方城市、大中城市和传统基础设施水平较高城市的城乡收入差距,对其他城市的城乡收入差距没有显著影响.第三,网络基础设施主要通过互联网用户规模效应和数字普惠金融效应传导机制缩小了城乡收入差距.因此,要继续贯彻"宽带中国"战略的实施,发挥示范城市的带头作用,通过增加互联网用户规模、推动数字普惠金融的发展来缩小城乡收入差距.

基于基因表达式编程(GEP)算法,预测了2016～2035年中国30省的劳动力质量趋势,并由此探究未来中国劳动力质量的空间差异演化特征.研究表明:自"十三五"时期开始,中国东部、东北、中部、西部的劳动力质量将普遍提高,但某些省份20年后仍不能达到目前东部的平均水平.与此同时,劳动力质量的空间差异先下降后回升,区域内差异持续高于区域间差异.未来东部环渤海、长三角省份劳动力质量提升后劲十足,但东部空间差异持续偏高;东北和中部将改变普遍偏低态势,区域内有望产生劳动力质量"增长极";西部劳动力质量提升明显,从而空间差异波动下降.因此,普及高中阶段教育的决策恰逢其时,以此为契机能够有效提升未来劳动力质量并降低其空间差异,从而助力供给侧结构性改革的深入推进,推动新时代中国经济发展顺利转型.

Green technology innovation is the key to promote the high-quality development of China′s economy, this paper studies whether the technology innovation of China in recent years is green technology innovation, and the related problems such as whether technology innovation can reduce environmental pollution.In theory, under the strict environmental regulation, technological innovation helps to reduce environmental pollution, its mechanism includes three channels as energy saving effect, industrial upgrading effect, population agglomeration effect.Taking 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2016as samples, this paper does empirical research based on new urban innovation index.The results show that:in recent years China′s technology innovation is environmentally friendly with a threshold value, lower than which could not reduce environmental pollution.Mechanism analysis based on the mediation effect shows that technology innovation of some regions such as the cities in northeastern and northwestern China is mainly in the service of local industrial development, unable to effectively promote industrial structure optimization, thus failing to reduce environmental pollution.As technology innovation level across the threshold, three effects play a role at the same time, especially in big cities population agglomeration effect reducing the pollution caused by urban sprawl.

基于我国31个省区1993-2015年面板数据,测算省域老龄化、人口流动与产业结构三大系统的综合指数及协调发展水平,讨论不同区域三系统协调发展的动态演化特征及其差异,并在此基础上解析三系统协调发展的影响因素及三系统两两间的交互作用关系.结果 表明,我国产业结构虽保持较为稳定的发展态势,人口迁移强度也有所增加,但老龄化程度正快速加深,导致三系统协调发展情况正逐年退化;人口净迁入和产业结构对三系统协调发展关系的边际促进作用降低;人口流动、产业结构调整并未有效缓解老龄化对三系统协调发展带来的负面影响.

以我国35个大中城市为样本,采用固定效应模型和面板门槛模型,从线性和非线性影响的角度,考察了城市蔓延、产业结构对环境污染的协同效应.结果显示:城市蔓延会加剧环境污染,当产业结构跨越门槛值后,其对环境污染的加剧作用将有所下降;产业结构优化升级可减轻环境污染,当城市蔓延水平跨越门槛值后,其对环境污染的减轻作用将被部分抵消;固定资产投资仍是环境污染的主要来源,外商直接投资在一定程度上缓解了大中城市的环境污染.据此认为,在继续推动产业结构优化升级的同时,深圳、上海、北京等经济增长中心应发展为紧凑型多中心城市,其他大中城市则应通过增强人口吸聚力,减少城市蔓延对环境产生的负面影响.

基于2013年CHIP入户调查数据,文章构建并运用系统耦合模型,从农村家庭微观视角全面解析了信任度、人力资本与金融资产配置合理性三者之间的协调性特征.结果表明:农村家庭的信任度、人力资本和金融资产配置合理性三者之间的耦合水平较低,各省份三者的耦合协调关系处于濒临失调衰退状态和轻度失调衰退状态,同时,省份之间存在一定的差别,整体上呈现由东到西递减态势;人力资本水平越高,信任度越高,农村家庭金融资产配置越合理,三者之间呈现正相关关系.总体看,人力资本和家庭金融资产配置合理性对三系统耦合度的影响大于信任度对三系统耦合度的影响,人力资本对金融资产配置合理性具有正向促进作用且影响程度大于信任度对金融资产配置合理性的影响程度.因此,提高农村家庭的人力资本水平,将有效促进农村家庭金融资产的合理配置.

基于2013年CHIP入户调查数据,构建并应用系统耦合模型,从家庭微观视角全面解析了信任度、人力资本与金融资产配置合理性三者之间的协调性特征.结果表明:第一,各省份三者的耦合协调关系都处于濒临失调衰退状态,且绝对水平较低,省份之间存在一定的差别,整体上呈现由东到西递减态势.第二,家庭的脑力素质水平越高,对外部的信任度越低,则其金融资产配置越合理.第三,总体看,家庭人力资本与金融资产配置合理性对三系统耦合度的影响大于信任度对三系统耦合度的影响,人力资本对金融资产配置合理性具有正向促进作用.

基于人口迁移的"推-拉"理论,系统梳理人口迁移规模、人口迁移结构与经济增长的变动规律.采用耦合模型测算1992——2012年我国大陆31省相关变量的耦合度,实证检验人口迁移与经济增长的内在耦合机制,考察人口迁移模式的演进态势.研究结果表明:我国区域发展战略的相继实施推动了区域发展格局的转变,人口跨区域流动从过去大规模向东部地区迁移转为向多个增长极迁移;同时,受到人口承载压力的影响,东部地区偏向迁至省内的趋势有所逆转,人口向省外迁移的迹象加强,但东北、中部、西部地区对东部迁出人口的吸引力仍相对不足.中西部地区劳动力的"回流"与东部人口偏好区域内迁移的现象并存,表面上反映了劳动力市场的区域分割,实质则体现了在各区域产业升级转型及区域间产业转移背景下劳动力的合理分工和有序迁移.

从逻辑斯蒂演化方程出发,本文认为城市化、人口迁移、社会福利构成一个自组织演化耦合系统,且耦合模型能够定量评价该系统的演化态势及整体跃迁方向.研究结果表明,城市化与社会福利子系统互惠共生,而城市化与人口迁移、人口迁移与社会福利存在一定程度的寄生现象.系统整体耦合度呈现十分显著的时空”梯度推移”特征,当前东部地区城市发展转型形势相对较优.值得注意的是,各区域人口迁移子系统均存在受损现象,成为耦合系统增长型演化的瓶颈.东部地区人口承载压力提升导致人口迁出迹象加强,但其他地区对省外人口的吸引力又不足,从而未来劳动力区域分割趋势明显.因此,各区域应借助城市化和社会福利的改善,优化人口分布格局,推动耦合系统的良性演化和城市发展转型升级.

基于山东省17市2003-2014年面板数据,运用三系统耦合模型,对山东省技术创新、产业结构和金融发展三系统之间的协同演化机制展开研究.结果表明,山东省三系统协同水平不断提升,但当前仍属于勉强协调发展类型,离优质协调还有较大差距;三系统的协同发展与三类二系统的耦合程度密切相关,其中,产业结构与金融发展耦合度的提升是改善三系统协同关系的关键所在;此外,核心城市群与非核心城市群的技术创新和金融发展水平存在明显的区域差异.因此,不同城市应结合自身特点,更有针对性地推动产业结构升级.

By employing the system coupling model,the dynamic evolution of coupled coordination relationship about carrying capacity,financial development and economic growth are studied based on panel data of 17 cities of Shandong province from 2005 to 2014.It was showed by the results that the coupling level of three system of Shandong province presents a rising trend and the coordinated developrnent of the three is optimized.At the same time,the coupling level of financial development-economic growth,financial development-the city carrying capacity and economic growth-the city carrying capacity of three kinds of binary system has continued to rise.It is worth noting that there is a positive correlation between the three system coupling and the three kinds of binary system,and the coupling between financial development and economic growth has the most significant impact on the improvement of the three system coupling.In addition,there are obvious regional differences between the core and peripheral regions of Shandong Province,but the gap is narrowing.

构建了人口发展与经济增长的系统动力学模型,引入联合国人口预测成果,考察高、中、低三种出生率方案下未来经济增长的趋势.研究结果表明:未来经济增长将更依赖于人口发展系统的改善,而出生率增加能有效提升人口数量、改善人口结构,人口质量的提升则需教育经费的支撑.短期内人口生育政策的变化难以发挥实效,但可通过提高劳动参与率和职业培训等方法,有效盘活现有劳动力和人力资本存量.长期内我国应进一步放松人口生育管制,辅以社会保障水平的完善,推动生育意愿的增强和人口质量的提升.

本文以CNKI数字出版平台所收录的文献为数据源,通过分析"政府绩效评估"主题的文献发表数量、作者、关键词等内容,系统梳理了截至目前我国政府绩效评估研究的基本概况和发展趋势.文献统计分析表明,该主题的研究活跃于2000至2008年,近两年文献数量和质量有所下降.在国家高层次基金项目和高校研究基地的带动下,该主题的研究可能在理论和实践方面实现新的突破.

By employing the coupled evolution model,the authors made an empirical evaluation of the synergy relationship between innovation and economic growth in Shandong province with Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces as the reference.The results show that the comprehensive innovation capability of Shandong Province shows a linear growth trend with relatively strong system innovation ability,but technological innovation and innovation environment are relatively weak.At the same time,technological innovation has strong development potential,but innovative activities lack effective market competition and incentive environment.In addition,the comprehensive innovation capability and economic development experienced the evolution from mild recession to good coordinated development and has begun to move gradually toward better coordinated development,but because of the impact of possible decline in economic growth,the future harmonious development will confront enormous pressure.

Agglomeration degree and superiority degree are important factors in assessing agglomeration level and development level of production space of industries.Based on this,this paper made a calculation of spatial Gini coefficients and location quotients of 20 industries in Qingdao and identified the agglomeration degree and superiority degree of these industries in different periods,on the basis of which a comparative analysis between agglomerated industries and advantageous industries were conducted.It shows that there is little obvious correlation between agglomerated industries and advantageous industries at present time in Qingdao.Most agglomerated industries are not advantageous industries and some advantageous industries have lower agglomeration degree than those non-advantageous industries.Therefore,Qingdao should identify advantageous industries according to the concrete objectives of industrial concentrated development.

<正>金融危机对我国经济的影响究竟有多大,对于这一问题,社会各界莫衷一是。目前,更多的讨论主要集中在金融危机对不同行业的影响,且主要集中在贸易、旅游、金融和房地产四大行业。从各地区看,这几个行业所遭受的冲击最大。商务部新闻发言人姚申洪认为,在金融危机的影响下,中国外贸出

中国传媒业新旧媒体的发展差异明显,新媒体竞争力日益增强,但其所具有的高新技术传播特征并不能完全解释这一现象。考虑两类媒体各自所处的制度环境,并通过市场可竞争性标准对传媒业的市场效率进行制度分析可以发现,制度变革是新媒体得以蓬勃发展的主因。上海市的实证分析结果支撑了上述结论。据此可以认为,我国传媒业的发展得益于市场化改革背景下,非公有经济和第三产业的快速发展,且正是该因素促进了由新媒体带动的传媒业整体效率的不断提升。

There exist differences on the economic development and innovation capacity between Jinan and Qingdao.The empirical research shows that,the case excluding technology variable,no matter considering labor's physical quality,or labor's mental quality,or them both,the human capital contribution to output of Qingdao is higher than that of Jinan.While involving technology variable,the result is opposite to above.At the same time,both of the two cities show the extensive growth characteristics and have the low level of innovation capacity.Therefore,the way of translating Jinan and Qingdao into innovative cities is to accelerate their technology innovation and human capital accumulation under the guidance of the economic development mode transformation.

Taking Qingdao as an example and based on coordinative model,this paper analyses the coordinative relationship between financial efficiency and economic growth.Result shows that the coupling relationship between them is stable,especially the coordinative development degree is relatively higher.Therefore,it is probable that financial industry and economy can promote each other throught Ratcheting effect.