Most of the research on institutional dual holdings confirms its positive impact on corporate governance, investment efficiency, and firm innovation in developed countries. In contrast, this paper uncovers the flip side of dual holdings in transitional economies. Using China's context, we find that dual holdings increase stock price crash risk, supporting the transient investor hypothesis. Transmission tests indicate that this effect is more significant when investors are transient; dual holdings increase agency costs of controlling shareholders and corporate upward earning management; dual holders exert more selling pressure when the firm experiences negative returns. Heterogeneous tests show that dual holdings' impact is more obvious for firms with higher sales growth, higher managerial agency costs, or those located in lower market-level regions. We also demonstrate how dual-holding information improves practical risk monitoring and capital allocation decisions.

This study investigates the impact of non-punitive regulation on credit ratings using China's context. The results show that when credit rating agencies (CRAs) are subject to non-punitive regulation, they issue higher credit ratings, indicating that non-punitive regulation aggravates conflicts of interest and rating inflation. Furthermore, the impact of non-punitive regulation on credit ratings is more evident when CRAs face higher levels of conflict of interest. Clients of CRAs subject to non-punitive regulation are also less likely to switch to other CRAs for follow-up ratings. Heterogeneity tests reveal that the impact of non-punitive regulation on credit ratings is greater when competition in the rating industry is fiercer or rating agencies are smaller. And the impact is also greater for firms with higher financial risk, tighter financing constraints, or non-state ownership. Finally, non-punitive regulation reduces the information content of credit ratings. The results indicate that non-punitive regulation induces CRAs to cater to clients rather than improve credit rating quality. These findings also have implications for the regulatory practices of other countries.

This paper investigates the impact of China's openness policy for the credit rating industry on credit ratings by domestic credit rating agencies (CRAs). Our findings demonstrate that the introduction of foreign CRAs reduces credit rating levels by domestic CRAs. Heterogeneity tests show that this effect is more pronounced when the issuers are small or unlisted, the CRA's market share is lower, or the underwriter's reputation is lower. Finally, openness to foreign CRAs can enhance the information content of credit ratings by domestic CRAs. Our results illustrate that openness to foreign CRAs enhances the reputation concerns of domestic CRAs.

Economic Management and Big Data Application, pp. 734-746 (2024) No AccessHow do Changes in Exchange rate Affect HUAWEI Concept Index: Evidence from Time Series AnalysisMingming LiMingming LiCommercial college, China University of Political science and law, Chongqing, 400000, Chinahttps://doi.org/10.1142/9789811270277_0065Cited by:0 (Source: Crossref) PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail Abstract: To control domestic inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates several times in 2022, which caused the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB in a short period. As two important financial indicators, the relationship between the exchange rate and stock price is of great theoretical and practical significance for China to formulate corresponding macroeconomic regulations and prevent the birth of financial risks. This paper utilizes the VAR model, impulse response function, ARMA-GARCH model, and other statistical methods to select two representative data sets of the RMB/USD exchange rate and the Huawei concept index as research objects. The purpose is to test whether there is a correlation between them and the degree of influence and to focus on the long-term stability of the price fluctuation relationship between the foreign exchange market and the Huawei index. The impulse response function is used to dynamically describe the short-term impact of foreign currency exchange rate and Huawei concept index fluctuation. According to the empirical results of this paper, some suggestions are provided for policymakers. This paper also establishes the ARMA-GARCH model for Huawei concept index and analyzes and predicts its volatility. The prediction results can provide some reference for investors to judge the short-term trend of Huawei concept index and make investment decisions. Keywords: Exchange RateHUAWEIEconometrics FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Recommended Economic Management and Big Data ApplicationMetrics History KeywordsExchange RateHUAWEIEconometricsPDF download

Stricter employment protection may affect capital structure adjustment speed in two ways. First, it may increase the cost of capital and decrease the leverage adjustment speed. Second, it increases financing needs and capital adjustment speed. Using China's 2008 Labor Contract Law as a natural experiment and the PSM-DID methodology, we find that the latter effect dominates the former. Specifically, stricter employment protection increases leverage adjustment speed, and this effect is more pronounced for non-state-owned firms and firms with larger leverage deviations. Furthermore, transmission channel tests show that employment protection increases firms’ substitution of labor with capital, driving up investment and financing needs. Finally, the increased leverage adjustment speed induced by enhanced employment protection is beneficial to firm performance.

Using data on defaulting firms in China, we show that government intervention distorts the discipline imposed by creditors. This paper examines the impact of government intervention on leverage adjustment speed and firm performance of defaulting firms, using non-defaulting firms as the baseline. Defaulting firms have slower leverage adjustment speeds than non-defaulting firms because creditors will constrain these firms by tightening up the loan contracts. In China, local governments have incentives to bail out defaulting firms. Government intervention, by relieving loan constraints and providing subsidies, accelerates leverage adjustment speed for defaulting firms. However, higher government intervention leads to worse performance and overinvestment problems of defaulting firms. This paper indicates that government intervention can rescue and relieve firm financial constraints during an individual debt crisis. However, it can mute the disciplinary role of creditors and distort resources allocation, thus hurting firm performance.

本文使用2003-2018年全行业上市集团母子公司财务数据,从货币政策视角检验了为子公司担保(简称"集团关联担保")的运作机制.结果发现,首先,集团关联担保能够缓解企业集团的融资约束,这种作用在紧缩货币政策条件下更强.其次,紧缩货币政策促进了母公司对子公司提供的贷款担保,但增长机会少的子公司获得了更多的关联担保.再次,集团关联担保构成了货币政策效果的放大器而非减震器,传染效应是其中的传导机制.最后,关联担保放大货币政策效果的作用主要集中在金融市场化程度较低的地区及子公司代理问题较多的企业中.本文的结果表明,源于中国特殊的制度因素,上市集团对子公司的担保并未遵循内部资本市场的效率原则,而是子公司竞相寻租的结果,这会引发传染问题并放大宏观经济冲击的效果.

本文实证检验主体信用评级对股价涨跌的影响.结果发现:低的主体评级会提高个股的股价大幅下跌风险;信息不对称程度越高、代理成本越高,低评级影响股价大幅下跌风险的效应越强.从传导机制来看,较低的主体评级水平具有预测企业未来较差绩效的能力,并且伴随着股价信息含量增加,企业未来融资减少,这表明低评级会通过一般性信息渠道、差别信息渠道和融资渠道提高股价大幅下跌风险.评级上调不会影响股价大幅下跌风险,但降低评级则会提高股价大幅下跌风险.

对于山东省来说,2020年是其高考全面改革的第一年;对于考生的志愿填报来说,相较往年有了较大的变动.与此同时,高考志愿填报直接指向了考生未来奋斗和就业的方向,从侧面说明了学生对生涯规划的选择.由此,将从山东省高考志愿填报入手,通过对山东省新高考志愿填报政策的深入分析,从志愿填报看"增加学生选择权"的落实.学校应该全面贯彻培养学生核心素养的教学理念,让学生能够在学习中不断确认自己未来的生涯规划,进而更准确地进行高校志愿填报和专业选择,以在未来的择业中获得更大的优势.

近年来,上市公司子公司对外担保的现象不断增加.本文检验了这一现象背后的理论逻辑.结果发现,在校正了内生性问题后,上市公司子公司对外担保降低了公司绩效,提高了两类代理成本.在区分不同的担保对象后,上述结论依然成立.进一步地,子公司对外担保提高了子公司的代理成本,但并未提高母公司的代理成本.子公司担保降低公司绩效的效果对于规模小的企业、所在地区金融市场化程度低的企业以及信贷扩张阶段的企业而言更强.本文研究结果表明,上市公司子公司对外担保并非出于上市企业集团发展的实际需要,而是出于内部人自利动机的驱动.通过安排子公司出面代替上市公司作为担保方并且将代理成本留在子公司,内部人可以逃避监管和资本市场约束,隐性地增加自身利益.本文提供了上市公司集团治理的新证据,对于信用担保以及子公司行为的研究具有一定的启示.

This paper intended to employ a portfolio approach to assess the effect of exchange rate expectation on Chinese RMB internationalization and empirically test the interactive effects among short-term capital flows, RMB appreciation expectation and the internationalization process using a VAR model with monthly data ranging from February 2004 to December 2020. The results suggest that RMB exchange rate appreciation could lead to an increase in the foreign demand for RMB and RMB denominated assets, while RMB internationalization would attract more short-term capital inflow due to the reduced transaction costs. The empirical evidence from the VAR model estimation confirms the finding that expected RMB appreciation induces short-term capital inflow and promotes RMB internationalization. The robustness checks confirm the evidence. The results have important policy implication for RMB internationalization and for maintaining a sound and stable financial system.

近年来,企业债务违约现象不断涌现,如何解析这一现象背后的原因成为一个重要问题.本文从宏观政策视角分析了企业违约潮的动因.结果发现,去杠杆程度越高、信贷紧缩程度越强、政府干预水平越高,企业债务违约的可能性就越大,而产业政策不会影响企业债务违约的可能性.异质性分析表明,宏观政策因素对民营企业债务违约的影响更强.信贷紧缩政策、较强的政府干预、产业支持政策对债务违约可能性的提高作用在绩效差的企业中表现更强,而去杠杆政策提高企业债务违约可能性的作用在绩效好的企业中表现更强.宏观政策主要通过影响企业绩效和利息支出来影响债务违约的可能性.本研究有助于从宏观层面解析违约潮现象的原因,对于如何化解实体经济违约风险具有一定的启示.

本文基于贷款期限结构的异质性视角检验了货币政策对微观企业的经济效应.首先,企业短期借款占比越高,货币政策对企业投融资的影响越大,说明较短的贷款期限会放大货币政策冲击对实体经济投融资的影响.其次,短期借款占比越高,紧缩货币政策条件下过度投资和经理人代理成本下降得越快,说明较短的贷款期限会强化紧缩货币政策与代理成本之间的负向关系.最后,短期借款占比越高,紧缩货币政策条件下企业绩效上升得越快,说明紧缩货币政策条件下贷款期限产生的治理效应超过了流动性风险效应.从非对称效应的角度看,期限结构视角下紧缩货币政策的效果强于宽松货币政策的效果.从异质性的角度看,对于成长期的企业、高成长性行业以及面临融资约束的企业而言,紧缩货币政策条件下短期借款对公司绩效的正向影响减弱.本文从贷款期限的视角进一步揭示了货币政策传导的具体机制,对于经济新常态下如何更好地进行总需求管理具有一定的启示.

首先,建立了货币需求的资产组合平衡模型考察人民币汇率预期对人民币国际化的影响.研究结果发现,人民币升值预期会提升国外投资者对人民币和人民币计价债券的需求,而人民币贬值预期会降低国外投资者的需求.在建立的短期资本流动决定模型中,人民币国际化程度的提高会通过降低资本流动成本带来短期资本流入的增多.然后,运用SVAR模型实证分析了2004年2月至2014年11月期间人民币汇率预期、人民币国际化与短期资本流动的互动关系.实证结果表明,人民币升值预期会通过促进人民币国际化程度的提高导致短期资本的流入.在三者的互动关系中,人民币国际化的影响力处于较低水平.通过一系列稳健性检验后,结论仍旧成立,这对于推动人民币国际化、人民币汇率制度改革和短期资本流动的监控具有重要的启示意义.

本文从企业间关系的视角探讨上市公司担保圈现象的形成机理,研究结果表明,企业间熟知关系是构建担保圈的基础,企业本身对熟知关系的依赖度越高,加入担保圈的可能性越大;从异质性的角度看,当公司绩效越差或者治理水平越低时,企业间熟知关系与加入担保圈的正向关联越小;政府干预也会削弱企业间熟知关系与加入担保圈的正向关联;企业间熟知关系能够有效缓解加入担保圈带来的机会主义行为和对绩效的负面冲击.研究发现,较差的治理水平以及制度环境,导致企业在信用担保中更少地考虑企业间熟知关系,扭曲了信用担保本有的功能,进而导致担保圈问题频发.

采用2002-2013年中国债券评级数据,探讨信用评级业的竞争程度对于信用评级准确性的影响.实证结果表明,竞争程度越强,评级水平越低,发生降级的可能性越大,即市场竞争降低了评级被高估的可能性.进一步,债券收益率差价对信用评级的敏感度随着竞争程度的增加而增加,说明市场竞争有利于提高信用评级的信息价值.竞争程度的加剧有利于提高评级的准确性,从而验证了“竞争有利说”.对于民营企业以及由法制化水平更高地区的评级机构进行评级的企业而言,竞争对于评级准确性的正面效应更大.这些研究对于优化评级业市场结构、提高资本市场运作效率具有一定的启示.

本文基于企业集团内部资本市场的视角研究投资机会对集团关联担保的影响以及集团关联担保的经济后果，结果发现：上市公司投资机会越多，其获取集团关联方担保的可能性越大，为集团关联方担保的可能性越小；从异质性角度看，对于融资约束较高的企业，投资机会与获取担保之间的正向关系更强，与对外担保之间的负向关系更弱；相对于国有企业，民营企业投资机会与获取担保的正向关系更强，与对外担保的负向关系更弱；从经济后果上看，上市公司获取担保提高了公司绩效并且减少了控股股东的资金侵占，而对外担保则降低了公司绩效并且增加了控股股东的资金侵占。本文的结果说明，投资机会是集团关联担保的重要决定因素，集团母公司基于自身利益，根据上市公司的投资机会决定内部资本市场的资源分配以及关联担保的方向。

以城投债信用利差来衡量城投债风险,并利用2010-2013年地级市面板数据考察房价对地方政府城投债的影响.实证结果显示:当期和上期房价越高,城投债风险越低.房价较高时,土地财政依赖度越高,房价对城投债风险的影响力越大;房价低迷时,信用评级越低,城投债风险受房价的影响越强.揭示地方政府债务融资行为模式,对于控制地方政府债务风险具有一定启示.

<span id="ChDivSummary" name="ChDivSummary" class="abstract-text">本文采用19个欧元区国家1995至2014年的面板数据考察主权信用评级改变对于本国和其他国家经济增长率的影响以及这种影响在债务危机期间的异质性。实证结果发现,评级机构的主权升级会带来本国经济增长率的提升,主权降级会导致本国经济增长率的下降。在债务危机时期,主权降级对于本国经济增长率的降低作用更小。同时,一国的主权降级会传染到欧元区其他国家,带来其他国家经济增长率的下降,主权升级则没有表现出传染效应。在债务危机时期,主权降级的传染效应变弱。进一步地,对于主权评级水平更低和主权评级变动不频繁的国家而言,债务危机时期主权降级对于本国经济增长率影响力的下降程度更大。本研究对于认识国际评级机构在经济增长中的作用具有重要启示。</span>