This paper constructs measures of bilateral global value chain (GVC) network connectivity at the country pair-industry level based on the Wang et al. (2013) method for measuring domestic value-added trade. We analyze how deepening free trade agreements (FTAs) affects bilateral GVC network connectivity. Our main findings are as follows. First, deeper FTAs boost GVC network connectivity between country pairs, suggesting FTAs serve as 'building blocks' to global free trade. Second, deep FTAs promote GVC connectivity by mitigating political and institutional risks and enhancing resource control capabilities. Third, the positive effect is particularly pronounced in manufacturing, among intra-regional FTAs, and during the post-crisis period. Additionally, the deepening of existing FTAs has a stronger effect on GVC network connectivity than the initial signing of new FTAs. Further analysis suggests that country-pair-level variation in FTAs plays an important role in boosting bilateral GVC network connectivity.

We estimate the policy effect of belt and road initiative (BRI) on China's import. We use highly detailed, product-country level data from China Customs Trade Statistics Database which covers 5364 types of products and 201 economies from 2010 to 2017 to investigate the policy effects and the underlying mechanisms. We find that the BRI has significantly boosted China's imports from countries along the route. The BRI have significant expansion effect on imports of existing products as well as positive effects on imports of new product import and product exit, which means BRI may also contribute to the optimization of product structure and growth in value of China's imports. Moreover, BRI have positive effects on both general trade and processing trade. Mechanism analysis shows that policy coordination, cultural affinity, and maritime transportation connectivity have strong explanatory power on the policy effects of BRI. We also find that the BRI has played a "boosting " role for import boost for new RTA partner as well as non-RTA members along the route. We further examine the impact of BRI on global bilateral trade, and the result shows that BRI has generally promoted bilateral trade among all countries along the route, not limited to origin-China pairs.

A long-standing narrative in U.S. engagement policy toward China draws a tacit causal link between engagement and Beijing’s socialization into the U.S.-led liberal international order (LIO).1 Amid recent decreasing faith in engagement, this article constructs a framework tailored to explaining the conditions for China’s state socialization into the hegemonic order when the U.S. tries to engage China. It contends that the socialization of a still-rising China is an arduous cause that hinges on four conditions: the accommodation of China’s interests in international institutions, the existence of a problematic situation, status recognition, and the absence of obstacles to domestic internalization. To test the socialization premise, the article applies the framework to a theoretically most-likely case of China’s socialization—U.S. post-2009 engagement with China on global climate governance. It finds that despite some ambiguous signs of state socialization, China’s adoption of the U.S.-promoted co-leader identity was primarily rooted in domestic changes in interest perception and was thwarted by domestic obstacles—economic development and energy security—to the internalization of the idea of Chinese climate leadership.

Exploiting a change in policy governing the entry of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2002, we apply the difference-in-differences model to estimate the effects of FDI on the product scope of domestic Chinese firms. In industries that experienced relaxation in FDI regulations, the average product scope increased by 5% which indicates more product innovation. Through vertical linkages, the product scope of firms is positively (negatively) affected by FDI in upstream (downstream) industries. The negative effect of FDI in downstream industries occurs because foreign firms engaging in processing trade rely more on imported inputs than inputs from domestic suppliers. The main channels of effect are firm-level R&D and industry-level technological distance, as FDI entry leads to an improvement in these variables. However, the positive effects of FDI on product innovation have limits, as new products are mainly introduced within the same industry rather than across different industries.

This paper studies examines how a firm's position in the global value chain affects its pollutant emissions. This paper integrates China’s firm-level trade data into China’s multi-regional input-output tables to provide an index to measure a firm’s position in global value chains. Based on a firm-level pollution dataset (2000-2014) in China, this paper conducts an empirical analysis and find that the most-downstream firms on the global value chain have lower pollutant emission intensity. Our results also suggest that the production factor structure effect, the knowledge absorption effect and the abatement investment effect together contribute to the emission intensity gap between the most-upstream firms and the most-downstream firms. These novel results are significant in guiding firms towards reducing their emissions and promoting a green global value chain, with the ultimate goal of achieving multinational environmental protection..

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on greenfield investments using a large panel dataset comprising 78 countries and regions at the monthly level from January 2019 to August 2021 (32 months). Particular attention is paid to whether the Belt and Road (BRI), a regional cooperation initiative, contributes to mitigating these shocks. Three indicators are used to measure greenfield investments, i.e., capital inflows, projects and employees. The lockdown measure due to the pandemic is used to conduct a difference-in-difference analysis. This paper finds that the pandemic significantly reduces global greenfield investments, while the BRI participants experience a lesser shock than the non-BRI countries (regions). Robustness checks using the numbers of monthly confirmed cases and deaths also support the role of the initiative in helping the BRI participants to mitigate the negative impact of the pandemic on greenfield investments.

着力提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平已经成为新发展阶段推动我国高质量发展的关键着力点.本文以汽车产业链为切入点,采用2017年1月—2021年12月我国HS6位产品—来源国—省份维度的海关进口数据,构建并测度了产业链安全指数,准确评估当前我国汽车产业链的安全现状,并采用双重差分估计深入分析新冠疫情对我国汽车产业链安全的影响,从而为保障我国汽车产业链供应链韧性和安全提出有效的对策建议.本文发现:第一,基于对汽车产业链安全的评估,整体上,我国汽车产业链对进口中间品的依赖度较高且趋于集中,产业链风险存在上升的趋势,尤其是区分上、中、下游来看,中游风险相对较高,且呈现出更为突出的动态不稳定性特征;第二,从省份来看,中间品的进口规模效应较为突出,即各省进口规模越大,汽车产业链的安全性相对越高;第三,从国别来看,来自资源型国家(地区)和电子产业发达国家(地区)的进口风险相对较高,其中自澳大利亚等七大经济体的进口面临着进口规模与产业链风险双高的问题;第四,从细分产业链环节来看,上游的模具制造、光伏设备以及中游的汽车整车制造等环节面临的产业链风险相对更高;第五,新冠疫情暴发显著影响了我国的汽车产业链安全,扩大引资规模,建设全国统一大市场和提升自主创新水平有助于对冲疫情冲击带来的产业链安全负面影响.

Compared with privately owned enterprises (POEs), Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are 6 percent more likely to export, although SOE productivity and external financial ability are 0.9 percent and 20% lower, respectively. To account for SOEs' higher export propensity, we build a model of firms' export decisions, embodying productivity, internal and external financing ability, and two aspects of China's institutional background: invisible subsidies to SOEs and preferential lending. We apply the model to firms from the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Survey Data, from 2003 to 2007, and find that SOEs' advantages in receiving invisible subsidies and more bank loans can significantly explain their higher export propensity.

绿色发展是新发展理念的关键内容.本文以2004-2009年中国增值税转型改革为制度背景,研究了税收激励如何影响企业污染排放这一问题.本文首先构建了一个理论模型,刻画增值税转型改革这一税收激励政策对企业污染排放的影响机制,并分解出研发创新效应、清洁生产效应和规模扩张效应三条路径.接下来,以增值税转型改革为 自然实验,运用多时点双重差分法,实证检验了该税收激励政策对企业污染排放的作用效果.结果表明,增值税转型改革会显著降低企业的污染排放.从机制分析看,增值税转型改革会激发企业投资活力,促进企业的研发创新和清洁生产,从而降低企业的污染排放;并且,增值税转型改革会扩大企业的生产规模,表明税收激励的减排效应并不以限制企业规模化发展为代价.同时,增值税转型改革的减排效果对于民营企业、资本密集型企业和东部地区企业来说更为突出.此外,增值税转型改革不仅促进了在位企业的污染减排,还导致高污染排放企业退出市场,促进低污染排放企业进入市场,从而降低了整体污染排放规模.本文丰富了绿色发展的理论和经验研究,为通过科学合理的税收激励推动环境保护与经济发展的协同共进提供了有益的政策启示.

产业链安全是关乎我国制造业高质量发展的关键议题,对产业链升级中创新问题的深度探究有助于确保产业链自主可控、安全高效.基于 2000-2013 年《中国工业企业数据库》《中国专利数据库》以及《世界投入产出数据库》的合并数据,创新性地构造并测度中国制造业企业沿价值链创新的位置指标,探究中国制造业企业沿价值链创新模式的演化特征以及内在原因.研究发现:第一,总体来看,2000-2013年中国制造业企业沿价值链创新位置呈现"√型"反转的特征,即加入世界贸易组织初期,企业主要从事价值链相对下游化的创新活动,而自 2004 年起企业逐渐向价值链上游开展创新.第二,从内在结构看,中国制造业企业创新呈现"√型"反转的特征主要由中低技术企业的创新活动驱动,相比之下中高技术企业仍然处于相对下游创新的位置,但中高技术行业的创新上游化追赶势头迅猛,二者差距正不断缩小.第三,从驱动机制看,贸易自由化和外资自由化在一定程度上造成中国制造业企业的创新下游化,而本土市场一体化和技术吸收能力的提升促进中国制造业企业的创新上游化.同时,本土市场一体化和技术吸收能力的提升还有助于激发贸易自由化和外资自由化促进制造业企业创新上游化的积极效应.

Since the inception of the Belt and Road Initiative（BRI）, it has been aimed at constructing a community of shared future for mankind as its highest goal.This article examines the positive effects of the BRI on the participating countries from the perspective of trade network.This article uses the HS 6-digit product export data of the CEPII-BACI database from 2009 to 2018, which constructs the trade network without China at the product level and measures the PageRank centrality reflecting the position of a country in the trade network.Then we adopt a difference-in-differences（DID）method to examine the impact of the BRI on the trade network of the participating countries.Our main findings are as follows: First, BRI has significantly deepened the trade networks of countries along the route.The PageRank centrality of these countries has increased by 2.7%～12.9%; Second, the heterogeneous effect analysis suggests that geographically, trade network along the Maritime Silk Road is strongly promoted; Third, the results of the triple difference model shows that the trade networks of BRI countries trading the key products have received a stronger promotion.And those BRI countries of the Chinese community within global trade network or the Singapore community within BRI countries trade network have better development in trade network; Fourth, the positive effect of the BRI can be explained through six aspects: policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, people-to-people bonds, and industry-chain cooperation.

当前,加速重构的全球产业链呈现本地化、区域化、多元化、绿色化和数字化特征,给我国稳外资和高水平对外开放带来挑战.基于《全球绿地投资数据库》,对全球产业链重构下来华绿地投资的影响效应进行全面评估,发现自新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来,来华绿地投资金额和项目数都出现了较为明显的下降,面临一定程度的产业转移压力;来华绿地投资减少的主要来源是发达国家、生产链条相对复杂的行业、旅游相关行业以及国内中部地区的绿地投资;全球产业链加速重构下,稳外资面临全球经济持续放缓、地缘政治冲突和美国对华"脱钩"、全球引资格局竞争加剧等诸多挑战.应推进制度型开放,构建高水平对外开放新格局;加快建设全国统一大市场,优化营商环境,为稳外资提供保障;推动数字经济赋能产业链升级,打造稳外资新增长点;推动全产业链绿色化进程,引导外资投向绿色清洁领域和环节,稳住外资基本盘.

本文通过整合1998-2011年中国工业企业数据库和中国工业企业环境统计数据库两大微观数据库,并将其与基于世界投入产出数据库测算得到的制造业服务化数据进行合并,实证研究了制造业服务化对企业污染排放的影响.研究发现:制造业服务化水平的提高会显著降低企业的污染排放强度,这一结果在多方面的稳健性检验及内生性处理后依然显著成立.制造业服务化一方面通过优化企业的能源利用结构即降低煤炭能源依赖、提高清洁能源使用,发挥减排效应;另一方面通过显著促进企业技术进步和提升管理效率,降低污染排放强度.此外,外资企业和高能耗企业更能通过制造业服务化实现减排效果,国内上游服务市场的质量提升和成本下降也会显著降低下游制造业企业的污染排放强度.本文研究对加快我国工业企业发展方式绿色转型具有积极意义.

At present,the main contradiction facing the realization of the new development pattern of“dual circulation”is the insufficient of internal demand. Improving the diversified supply of products is an important engine to boost domestic demand. This paper integrates the micro-enterprise data in the 2000-2009 from“Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database”and“Environmental Statistics Database of Chinese Industrial Enterprises”,and then merges them with the upstream service industry opening indicators constructed from Chinese Catalogue for the Guidance of Industries for Foreign Investment to empirically analyze the effects of service industry opening on corporate product diversity. The study’s findings indicate that:Firstly,the opening up of the upstream service industry will significantly increase the company’s product diversity. This result is still significant under several robustness tests and endogenous treatment;Secondly,Mechanism analysis shows that:the opening up of the upstream service industry will promote the market size of domestic service industry,improve product quality and reduce service cost to improve the diversity of enterprise products. Thirdly,Heterogeneity analysis shows that:from the differences of industry service dependence,we find that manufacturing industries with a high degree of dependence of service are more able to promote corporate product diversity through the service industry opening from the differences of industry service dependence,from the common gathering of manufacture and service industries. Finally,based on the perspective of product dynamics,the service industry opening not only improved the diversity of enterprises,but also significantly accelerated the new products and old products eliminated of product transformation. Based on the aspect of corporate dynamics and industry dimension analysis,the service industry opening will attract new enterprises and slow down the quit of existing enterprise.

发展以人工智能为代表的高新技术是中国推动高质量对外开放、实现更高水平融入全球价值链分工网络的重要依托.本文基于Melitz(2003)和Bai等(2019),在异质性企业出口决策模型中引入人工智能,将企业出口模型拓展至企业增加值出口模型,并实证检验了人工智能发展对GVC网络深化的影响和内在机制.本文研究结果显示,各国人工智能产业的进步能显著促进GVC网络的深化.人工智能对GVC网络的积极影响主要是通过劳动力替代和缓解资源错配实现.相比于发达国家,人工智能对深化发展中国家GVC网络的促进效应更强;相比于高出口依赖型国家,对低出口依赖型国家的积极效应更加突出.人工智能除了影响各国GVC网络的深化外,还能延长GVC长度,增强GVC竞争力,以及推动各国向GVC上游攀升.这一发现对当前"双循环"新发展格局构建——"内循环为主、外循环赋能"具有重要的战略指引.

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of automation upon firms’ carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 emissions) of China by using data for the period 1998–2009. Our research yields a few findings. First, we find that automation as measured by the robot density can reduce firms’ CO 2 emissions intensity. Specifically, 1% increase in the robot density leads to a 0.018% decrease in CO 2 emissions intensity. Second, we find that automation reduces firms’ CO 2 emissions intensity by promoting firms’ technological innovation and improving management efficiency. Finally, we find that automation exerts a greater impact on reducing CO 2 emissions intensity for firms in industries with high CO 2 emissions intensity rather than low CO 2 emissions intensity, and for firms in capital-intensive industries rather than non-capital-intensive industries, as well as firms in industries with high servitization of manufacturing rather than low servitization of manufacturing. Moreover, the mitigating effects of automation have been given greater play on firms’ CO 2 emissions intensity after the global financial crisis.

本文以2007-2019年中国与61个经济体在35个行业维度的贸易数据为样本,采用双重差分法检验"一带一路"倡议的推进对中国出口国内附加值的影响效应,并对其内在机制进行探究.主要结论是:首先,"一带一路"倡议显著促进了中国出口国内附加值提升,在经过平行趋势检验、PSM-DID等多重稳健性检验后,结论依然成立.其次,"一带一路"倡议主要通过降低贸易成本和吸引外商投资两个渠道对中国出口国内附加值产生积极影响.最后,拓展性分析结果表明,倡议对中国出口国内附加值的促进效应并未集中于基础设施建设等重点行业,而是相对均衡地推动了各行业的出口国内附加值提升.此外,"一带一路"倡议还显著促进了沿线国家出口国内附加值的创造.本文丰富了"一带一路"倡议经济效应的研究,为依托"一带一路"倡议实现我国出口国内附加值跃升、构建互利共赢的产业链供应链合作体系提供了有益启示.

本文旨在探讨处全球价值链分工位置如何影响实体经济企业对外直接投资(OFDI)决策.为此,文章通过价值链上游度衡量企业在全球价值链分工位置,境外投资企业名录识别企业OFDI项目数,并利用负二项回归等计数模型评估两者的因果关系.估计结果显示,全球价值链分工位置对实体经济企业OFDI决策具有显著负向影响,企业价值链上游度越低(或越下游),OFDI倾向越高.区分OFDI类型的深入研究表明,这种负向关系主要体现在市场寻求型OFDI,效率寻求型和战略资产寻求型OFDI决策在总体上与企业价值链位置无显著关系.进一步考虑国内市场规模的影响后,文章发现,国内市场规模对这两类OFDI具有显著的促进作用,且该作用与价值链上游度负相关.由此可知,在国内市场规模大的行业,价值链下游企业开展效率寻求型和战略资产寻求型OFDI的倾向更强,反之,上游企业OFDI倾向更强.

作为引导企业技术创新的措施,政府补贴不仅直接影响企业技术创新,还通过市场竞争对企业技术创新产生间接影响.在将"熊彼特效应"和"逃离竞争效应"纳入统一分析框架的基础上,运用2001—2013年《中国工业企业数据库》和《中国企业专利申请数据库》匹配得到的402756个样本验证了补贴对企业技术创新的直接影响以及通过市场竞争所产生的间接影响.研究发现:(1)补贴对企业技术创新具有十分显著的正向影响,说明补贴在技术创新领域的积极作用是值得肯定的;(2)补贴通过市场竞争对企业技术创新产生间接影响,表现为通过"行业间市场竞争"促进了企业技术创新,这一作用主要通过"熊彼特效应"来体现,即在市场集中度高的行业,补贴对这些行业的企业创新激励更强.结论为优化政府创新补贴政策制定和实施提供了启示:一方面,要继续发挥好补贴的作用,就要考虑到不同市场竞争程度下,补贴对企业技术创新的激励作用是有差异的;另一方面,要甄别出创新能力强的企业给予补贴,把重点放在提高补贴的效率上,而非仅仅扩大补贴规模.

本文采用2000-2014年WIOD投入产出数据库,基于WWZ方法对增加值贸易进行分解并构造了考察全球价值链网络的关键指标,就当前日渐深化发展的自由贸易协定如何影响全球价值链网络问题展开了全面深入的研究.本文的主要研究发现是:首先,2000年以来,全球价值链网络中世界各国的贸易强度均实现明显上升.其次,发展中国家在全球价值链网络中的参与度仍然低于发达国家.再次,自由贸易协定深度的提高能够显著促进一国在全球价值链网络中建立更广泛的联系,并且在一定程度上抵御金融危机对增加值贸易的负面冲击.最后,通过影响机制检验,本文发现这一促进作用主要通过延长生产长度以及促进研发创新两条路径实现.