This paper suggests a robust LM (Lagrange Multiplier) test for spatial error model which not only reduces the influence of spatial lag dependence immensely, but also presents robust to changes of spatial layouts and distribution misspecification. Monte Carlo simulation results imply that existing LM tests have serious size and power distortion with the presence of spatial lag dependence, group interaction or non-normal distribution, but the robust LM test of this paper shows well performance.

Based on exogenous initial value hypothesis,this paper constructs and estimates a dynamic panel data model with fixed effects under considering spatial auto-correlation and spatial error effects.The Monte-Carlo simulation test shows that,the asymptotic characteristics of QMLE improve as the sample size grows,and which seems more sensitive to time than to space change.Therefore,it seems to significantly improve estimation characteristics by expanding time dimension when space dimension is relatively limited.

Energy is a bottleneck, which restrains the development of China's economy and society. Our government has always been attaching great importance to energy problem. In China, there exist space-time correlation and differences in energy consumption and efficiency among different areas. The purpose of this paper is to study the spatial correlation and heterogeneity in energy consumption among different provinces, as well as the mechanism of the spatial effects of economic growth on energy consumption, energy prices, and population growth by means of constructing Bayesian spatial econometric model.

This paper proposes a dynamic spatial fixed effect model. First, simultaneously introduce both temporally and spatially lagged factors. Second, analyze both observable and unobservable spatial effects by taking the initial value as endogenous. Third, derive and prove the asymptotic properties and distributions of estimators, and undertake a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that the estimators improve as the sample size increases. Moreover, the degree to which the estimation results improve seems more sensitive to temporal dimension than to spatial dimension.

传统的货币危机传染模型均为单向传染模型,本文利用空间自回归Probit对货币危机的"交叉传染"及其传染途径进行了研究,并且分别对货币危机传染的贸易途径和政治关系途径进行了检验。研究结果表明,货币危机会通过贸易途径进行"交叉传染",但政治关系途径的传染并非在每次货币危机中都是显著的,政府预算赤字在每次货币危机中都会对货币危机发生概率产生显著的正效应。

Considering both observable and unobservable spatial effects,this paper constructs and estimates a dynamic fixed effect model based on endogenous initial value.The simulation test shows that,the asymptotic characteristics of QMLE improve as the sample size grows,and which seems more sensitive to time than to space change.The empirical results from convergence analysis of China's provincial economy validate the applicability and rationality of the dynamic spatial model which considers both SAR and SEM structure.

This paper proposes and establishes a dynamic spatial fixed effect (DSFE) model. It contributes to the literature on three main fronts. First, we simultaneously introduce both temporally and spatially lagged factors and design a DSFE model with both dynamic and spatial fixed effects. Second, we analyze both observable and unobservable spatial effects by taking the initial value as exogenous, respectively. Third, we derive and prove the asymptotic properties and distributions of the likelihood estimators, and undertake an assessment based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results show that the likelihood estimators of the model parameters improve as the sample size increases and move closer to their real values. Moreover, the degree to which the estimation results improve depends more on the temporal dimension than on the spatial dimension. Therefore, increasing the temporal dimension can significantly improve the estimation results given a fixed spatial dimension.

Based on statistics data from 1987 to 2007 in China, this paper, using spatial panel data model, has conducted an empirical study of the influence factors on finance competition of local governments to foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The results show that tax competition and expense competition, two widely-used finance competition tools for absorbing FDI, have different promotion to FDI inflows. Expense competition is significantly positive correlated to FDI inflows, but tax competition is not significant. Furthermore, competition tool selection is correlate with time span and economic development level in China. On the one hand, judging from the time aspect, on a nation wide scale, the use of competition tools have changed from tax competition to expense competition since the 1994 fiscal decentralization reform in view of FDI inflows competition. On the other hand, judging from the regional aspect, the developed regions tend to use expense competition tool, while the underdeveloped ones remain preferential tax policy for absorbing FDI.

虽然我国已成为全球:FDI最具吸引力的国家,但FDI在我国东部、中部和西部的分布极不均衡.文章构建动态面板计量模型.并分别建立全国、东部、中部及西部地区四个模型,全方位多角度地对影响我国外商直接投资区位分布的因素进行实证研究.在此基础上对目前我国利用外商直接投资中存在的问题进行深入分析,为政府制定科学的宏观利用外资战略提供理论支持与政策建议.

Former studies on the relationship of output and inflation rate pay more attention on the output gap and inflation rate,while accept the constraint that potential output holds no impact on inflation rate.Considering period factor,this study decomposes the real GDP into two parts potential output and output gap by the State-Space Kalman-Filter method based on the quarterly data from China,and then constructing quantile regression models which takes the GDP deflator as dependent variable and the ouput gap and differential potential output as independent variables.The empirical results show that,the impact of potential output on inflation keeps not neutral but positive,and the impact from output gap presents different to different rates of inflation.

对企业产品生命周期的识别、特别是对典型产品生命周期的识别构成了产品生命周期理论的基础和难点。虽然Logistic模型可用于产品生命周期的识别,但由于该模型参数的非线性性,在估计方法上存在一定困难。文章结合三段倒数和值法与Fisher-Pry变换对典型产品生命周期的Logistic随机模型进行拟合,并给出实证分析结果。不仅从曲线特征上适用于拟合典型产品生命周期,同时又满足了反映经济现象随机性特性的要求。

The empirical results show that there exists marked conditional convergence among China's provinces from 1994 to 2004.Under dividing the whole period into two parts,the further research explores that the convergence speed of the previous period seems faster than that of the later period.After analyzing the controlled variables,we can find that education,employment level and non-state own rate push the regional economy efficiently,while the rate of the first industry blocks the regional economy.

The traditional OLS method often misestimates the real price-volume relationship,and the overestimation appears more often.After dividing return per se and absolute return,the price-volume relationships of Shanghai Stock Exchange are studied by quantile regression.The empirical results prove that there exist marked price-volume relationships in Shanghai Stock Exchange.The relationship between return per se and volume presents an obvious unsymmetrical V-shape,where the positive ones are stronger than the negative ones.The relationship between absolute return and volume is positive,and the price-volume relationship presents stronger when price fluctuates more intensely.

Researching on price-volume relations is of great importance.Traditional methods of studying the average price-volume relations among variables often over-estimate or under-estimate their true relations.Our empirical results from a quantile regression analysis of data from Shanghai Stock Exchange show that there exist significant price-volume relations between return-rate and volume and between absolute return-rate and volume.The relations between return-rate and volume is of an obvious V-type,and positive relations are stronger than negative ones.Our analysis also affirms that the absolute return-rate is markedly positive related to volume,and that the more prices fluctuate the stronger such relations will be.

For studying which one is more effective for the statistical power between the MonteCarlo Asymptotic Test and the Bootstrap Test, the power and scale of different nonlinear models are compared in this paper based on simulation, and the generalized linear test BDS, is also included. The empirical results show that, one should choose BCV rather than ACV when the sample is less than 200, or the autoregression coefficient closes to unit root, or the linearity test is ARCHT or BDS. And, the results show that BDS test is better than LM test only on the generality.

This paper is concerned with the factors in price fluctuations in current economic operations and their related problems in China.It proposes that it is possible to analyze quantitatively the dynamic impact of major macroeconomic variables on prices by creating the VAR model and its Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Variance Decomposition(VD).The results show that each economic variable influences the price in its own way,and that there exists a lagged effect to some degree.It is suggested that various regulatory measures be taken in different periods to maintain price stability and sustained economic development.

本文从产业国际竞争力的概念出发,归结了当前理论界对产业的界定以及在产业层次上的国际竞争力概念,继而对产业国际竞争力的经济分析范式和评价进行综述,概括了理论界中较为认可的几种分析范式和评价指标体系。

Using Granger's Causality Test and VEC models, this paper explores the dynamic, complex relationships in China's macroeconomic operations by empirically analyzing the interactions among different aggregate indices. The results indicate that price level, economic growth and fixed capital investment significantly interact on each other. In the short run, both fixed capital investment and economic growth have lagged, positive effects on price level. In the long run, fixed capital investment and price level move in a reverse direction, as the current investment is transformed into supply in the future and therefore makes price fall. Moreover, the general monetary supply (M2) also influences price level via fixed capital investment and gross economic output.

本文通过对世界油价变动与我国宏观经济变量的建模及数量影响关系的实证研究,表明:世界油价与我国GDP、进出口贸易IE、固定资产投资INV均存在显著的因果关系:油价上涨对我国GDP和IE均表现为负面影响,且近期的影响大于远期,其中对IE的影响最大.针对如何加强我国石油经济安全,提出相应的对策建议.